Friday, January 27, 2012

MIxed markets on uneven earnings and economic data

Dow dropped 74, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 11.  Limited strength in bank stocks pushed the Financial Index higher. 

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 190.34 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    0.72     (0.4%)

The MLP index had a massive decline, down 6+ to the 394s, while the REIT index was flattish at 247.  Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries continued in demand, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 1.9%.  Oil was about even & gold continued on its winning ways, up almost 10.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.051%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

1.895%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...99.61 ...Down 0.09  (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fitch cut the credit ratings for Italy, Spain & 3 other euro countries, saying they lack financing flexibility in the face of the regional debt crisis.  Italy's ratng was cut 2 levels to A- from A+.  The rating on Spain was also lowered 2 notches, to A from AA-.  Ratings on Belgium, Slovenia & Cyprus were also reduced, while Ireland’s rating was maintained.  “The divergence in monetary and credit conditions across the euro zone and near-term economic outlook highlight the greater vulnerability” these nations face in the event of financing shocks, Fitch said.  All the countries were removed from “ratings watch negative,” though they retain a “negative outlook,” which implies the possibility of a downgrade within 2 years.  No great surprise, but hearing the news is always painful.

Fitch Cuts Italian, Spanish Ratings by Two Notches


Greece is locked in a twin effort to placate its creditors, seeking to secure a crucial debt relief deal with private investors while also tackling pressing demands from its European partners & the IMF for deeper reforms.  Failure on either front would force the country to default by Mar, adding to Europe's debt crisis.  If Greece left the eurozone, it could bring disaster on the country & destabilize the rest of the eurozone.  Sources said there was progress on legal & technical issues withthe IMF (whatever that means).  A Greek gov spokesman said it was "obvious" that progress has been made.  "We hope to conclude as soon as possible."  The  lack of progress in  the talks is mainly due to disagreements on the interest rate cut private investors must accept on the new lower-value Greek bonds with longer maturities that will replace the ones they own.  The writedown is meant to reduce the country's debt-to-GDP ratio from 160% last year to 120% in 2020.  The Greek drama just drags on.

Greece locked in parallel talks over debt AP

  • A man pumps fuel into his truck at a Chevron gas station in Buckeye, Arizona October 27, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott
Photo:   Yahoo

Chevron, a Dow stock, reported lower Q4 earnings, as rising spending on oil & gas projects, & losses at its US refinery business offset gains from higher crude oil prices.  Oil & gas production at the #2 US energy company declined to 2.6M barrels per day (BPD) from 2.8M BPD a year-before, while average oil prices rose about 25%.  The major factors behind the output shortfall were the effect of higher prices on production sharing contracts, lower-than-expected performance at large new offshore projects in the Gulf of Mexico & Angola, & a 3rd-party pipeline rupture & decreased demand in Thailand.  Still, CVX added 1.7B barrels of oil equivalent to its reserves last year,almost double its 2011 output.  Q4 EPS slipped to $2.58 from $2.64 a year earlier & fell short of the $2.84 expected.  Its $9B Angola LNG project is due to start up later this year.  The stock dropped 2.63.

Chevron profit falls as refineries, output sufferReuters

Chevron Corporation (CVX)


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DR Horton, the top US homebuilder, posted a Q1 profit that beat expectations, helped by a surge in orders indicating & said it was looking at spring selling season with "cautious optimism."  The meltdown in the housing market triggered the 2007-09 recession, but home building has seen growth in the last few qtrs & building permits jumped to a 1 year high in Nov.  DHI, which focuses on lower-end homes for first-time homebuyers, had been hurt as a massive overhang of used & foreclosed homes.  Orders, a leading indicator for builders, rose 17% to $706M.  Q1 EPS was 9¢, compared with a net loss of 6¢ in the prior year period.  Revenue rose 15% to $886M.  Forecasts were for EPS of 4¢ on revenue of $897M.  The stock was up 27¢.

D.R. Horton Reports First-Quarter Profit as Homebuilding Revenue Increases

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)


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The € is over $1.32, up a nickel form the lows earlier this month, on hopes that bondholders of Geek debts can agree on a fair haircut for their investments.  That could have been said last month or the prior month.  Maybe, who knows?  But that kind of thinking is not encouraging for the markets.  Earnings reports are inconsistent, some better than others.  The idea is that higher sales are supposed to bring higher profits.  That is blurred with multi-nationals giving excusees why earnings are not as healthy as they should be.  We hear a lot about the Rep race in FL, but almost nothing about extending lower taxes next month for workers.  That will be a nasty fight, something the markets do not like.  Facebook is said to be coming out with its IPO next week.  Perhaps that will encourage buyers to return.

Dow Industrials


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Mixed markets in listless trading

Dow fell 65, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ gained 5.  Bank stocks hardly budged.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 189.56 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -0.07    (-0.0%)

MLPs were hit with profit taking & the REIT index slipped 1 to the 245s.  But both are coming off a strong Jan.  Junk bond funds were mixed as were Treasuries.  Oil is headed for its first weekly gain in 3 on signs Greece is near an agreement with its creditors & growing tensions with Iran. Gold is having a quiet day.

Alerian MLP Index


Value 395.35 One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    -5.39     (-1.4%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.051%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

1.926%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...100.03 ...Up 0.33  (0.3%)

GCF12.CMX...Gold Jan 12.........1,721.00 ...Down 5.30  (0.3%)



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The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q4, the fastest growth in 2011.  More was spent on cars & trucks, & companies restocked inventories at the strongest pace in nearly 2 years.  But growth in Q4 & for all of 2011 was held back by the biggest annual gov spending cuts in 4 decades.  The Commerce Dept said the economy grew just 1.7% last year, roughly half of the growth in 2010 & the worst since the recession.  Businesses are expected to ease up on restocking in Q1 which should slow GDP growth.  In addition, consumers may cut back on spending if their wages continue to lag inflation or tax cuts are not extended.  In Q4, consumer spending grew at a 2% annual rate, up modestly from Q3.  Much of the growth was powered by a 14.8% surge in sales of autos & other long-lasting manufactured goods.  Incomes, which have been weak all year because of high unemployment, grew at a modest 0.8% annual rate (following 2 straight qtrs of declining incomes).  Consumer spending is important because it makes up 70% of economic activity.  This data is muddy showing no clear indication off a strong recovery.

U.S. Economy Grows 2.8%, Less Than Forecast


The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for January rose to 75.0 from 69.9 at the end of Dec.  It was projected to hold at the preliminary January reading of 74.  Estimates ranged from 72.5-76.  The measure averaged 89 in the 5 years leading up to the recession that began in Dec 2007 & ended in Jun 2009.  Consumer confidence remains less than rosy.

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Rises

  • <p>               This Jan. 23, 2012 photo, shows a travel-size tube of Crest toothpaste and toothbrush in a Moreland Hills, Ohio home. Procter & Gamble Co. said Friday Jan. 27, 2012 its net income fell 49 percent in the fiscal second quarter, hobbled by higher materials costs and a writedown in the value of some of its businesses. P&G also lowered its earnings predictions for the year. (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta)
 Photo:   Yahoo

Procter & Gamble, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, net income fell 49% in its fiscal Q2, hobbled by higher materials costs & a writedown in the value of some of its businesses.  It also lowered its earnings predictions for the year. But adjusted EPS of $1.10 beat estimates of $1.07.  Including one-time charges, EPS was 57¢.  PG is the world's largest consumer-products company.  The bulk of the one-time charges stemmed from the company's decision to write down the value of the appliances unit, where the biggest seller is electric shavers, & the salon professional unit.  Those items tend to be discretionary purchases, & it can be hard to persuade shoppers to buy in a weak economy.  Western Europe, where concerns about a debt crisis are crimping the economy, accounts for about half the sales for both units.  Revenue grew 4% to $22B, helped by higher prices & was roughly in line with the expectations.  But PG cautioned that sales volume slowed in the US as it grew in developing countries. That is similar to trends that many companies are noticing.  PG downgraded its earnings estimate for the fiscal year, to $4-$4.10 from $4.15-$4.33 previously given.  The stock was down 22¢.

P&G Cuts Full-Year Profit Forecast on Unfavorable Currency Exchange Rates

Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG)


stock chart


Markets were mixed in listless trading, as has been the case this week.  Earnings may be good enough, but not inspiring.  Greek debt talks resumed (have heard that many times before), but all talk with no action is no help for the markets.  The MLP index had a large pullback after gaining 25% to a new record in the last 4 months.  Lower yields may be prompting this selling.  There was also an article that western North Dakota, which is booming from expansion in shale oil & gas, has boom problems.  Of  course, plenty of states would like to exchange places.

Dow Industrials

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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Mixed markets on mixed earnings and economic data

Dow fell 22, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ was down 13.  Bank stocks also had a restful day.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value189.62One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -1.72    (-0.9%)

MLPs took a breather after yesterday's record run & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 246s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries had a good day.  Oil rose on hopes that low interest rates will drive more demand for oil.  Gold shot up 22, a 6 week high.

Alerian MLP Index

Value400.74One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   -0.83    (-0.2%)




Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.046%

U.S. 2-year

0.211%

U.S. 10-year

1.930%


CLH12.NYMCrude Oil Mar 1299.75 2:56PM ESTUp 0.35 (0.35%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Probably Climbed

Photo:   Bloomberg

Durable goods orders climbed more than forecast in Dec, pointing to a rebound in business investment that could help support the US economy in early 2012.  Bookings for long-lasting goods advanced 3% after rising 4.3% in Nov, the biggest back-to-back gains in almost a year, according to the Commerce Dept.  Growing demand for raw materials from emerging markets & the need to replenish depleted inventories & update equipment are swelling order backlogs.  Combined with fewer layoffs & added confidence, the gains may help shield the US from a slowdown in Europe caused by the region’s debt crisis.  Orders climbed 10 % last year after a 15.5% gain in 2010.  

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Climb 3%, Stronger Than Economists Estimated


  • <p>               FILE - In this April 25, 2012 file photo, 3M's address labels are displayed for sale at Office Depot in Mountain View, Calif. 3M is raising its earnings expectations for the year Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012, saying higher sales around the globe will offset the disruption to its business in Japan from the earthquake there.  (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Photo:   Yahoo

3M, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, profit inched up 3% in Q4 as more demand for products for the home, office & automobile offset declining sales of high-tech products.  Growth in developing countries, where MMM now derives more than half of its sales, is slowing.  But MMM believes rapid growth in China & other emerging nations will resume in H2.   MMM is maintaining its current profit forecast for 2012 for EPS of $6.25-$6.50.  Analysts are predicting EPS of $6.33.  Q4 EPS was $1.35 compared with $1.28 in the prior year.  Revenue rose 6% to $7.09B.  The stock gained 1.10.

3M posts small profit increase in 4Q AP

3M Company (MMM)


stock chart


AT&T Sales Beat Estimates

Photo:   Bloomberg

AT&T, another Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, predicted 2012 earnings that trailed expectations as record demand for smartphones such as the iPhone drive up subsidy costs, projecting “mid-single-digit or better earnings growth” for 2012.  Analysts are predicting 11%.  ATT reported a Q4 loss of $6.7B because of a pretax charge of about $4B for the failed takeover of T-Mobile & expenses for revaluing benefit plans & other assets.  Activations of the iPhone soared to 7.6M in Q4, boosted by the new 4S model & a previous version offered for free with a contract.  ATT gained 717K subscribers on monthly contracts, more than the 574K projected.  Sales rose 3.6% to $32.5B.  The net loss was $1.12 a share, compared with a profit of 18¢ in the prior year.  EPS, excluding some items, fell to 42¢, under the 43¢ predicted.  Revenue at the wireless business increased 10% to $16.7B, boosted by web browsing &-mailing by smartphone users.  Smartphone subsidies helped reduce operating profit to 15.2% of sales from 22.9%.  Making money in the phone business is getting tougher.  The stock was off 76¢,

AT&T Earnings Forecast Falls Short as IPhone Demand Boosts Subsidy Costs

AT&T Inc. (T)


stock chart


This was another uneventful day in the markets, but Jan has been a good month.  Dow is up 270 this week & over 500 in Jan.  Meanwhile, long term Treasuries & gold (traditional safe havens) are also having a good run in Jan.  Back to reality, debt relief talks were restarted in Greece.  Duhh!!  I think we heard that a week ago (or was it a month ago).  MLPs took a day off after their rise to new record highs.  The index is up 13 in Jan, not bad.  New record highs bring correspondingly lower yields, the index yield is below 6%.  However, with a low interest rate environment projected to last for years, maybe "only 6%" will be less of a problem.

Dow Industrials


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