Friday, April 30, 2021

Markets retreat from record levels during earnings season

Dow sank 182, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ pulled back 119.  The MLP index fell 4+ to 175 & the REIT index added 2 to the 432s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were pretty much even.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 63s & gold was even at 1767 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The global tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19 climbed above 150M, & India set yet another one-day case record, as the Indian army opened its hospitals in the latest effort to address a dire humanitarian crisis.  India counted 386K new cases in the last 24 hours, the most for any country in a single day since the start of the pandemic.  Those numbers are understood to be understated as the nation of almost 1.4B people's healthcare system is completely overwhelmed.  Patients are dying while waiting in ambulances to be admitted to overcrowded hospitals.  And the vaccine program is stumbling, even though India is the world's biggest vaccine maker.  The global tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus illness COVID-19 climbed above 150M & India set yet another one-day case record, as the Indian army opened its hospitals in the latest effort to address a dire humanitarian crisis.  The country is also struggling with a “double-mutant” COVID variant, that seems far more infectious than the original virus.  Called the B.1.617 strain, the new variant has 2 spike proteins instead of one.  The World Health Organization said earlier this week that the variant has now been found in at least 17 countries.  Elsewhere, Brazil's death toll rose above 400K, the 2nd highest in the world after the US.  Latin America is another hot spot in the pandemic, accounting for 35% of all deaths in the latest week, >despite being home to just 8% of the world’s population.  The US vaccine program, meanwhile, continues to show good progress.  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s vaccine tracker is showing that 305M doses had been delivered to states, 237M doses had been administered & 144M people had received at least one shot, equal to 43.3% of the population.  More than 100M people are now fully vaccinated, though some are in the 2-week period after vaccination during which protective antibodies are believed to develop.  That's equal to 30% of the population.  Among Americans 65 & older, 37M people are fully vaccinated, equal to 68.4% of that group.  Almost 45M people in that age bracket have received a first jab, covering 82% of that population.

India sets another COVID case record and Brazil’s health minister makes plea for vaccines

Dallas Fed Pres Robert Kaplan said that he thinks the central bank should begin discussions on slowing down, or tapering, its $120B of monthly asset purchases.  “At the earliest opportunity, I think it will be appropriate for us to start talking about adjusting those purchases,” Kaplan said.  The Fed has said it would not start to taper its asset purchases until it had seen “substantial further progress” in meeting its two goals of full employment and 2% inflation.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he didn't want the central bank to begin “talking about talking about” tapering yet.  And Wed, Powell reiterated he thought talks of a taper were premature.  Based on Powell’s tone, many economist think that the Fed might not start those discussions until late summer.  Kaplan is in the more hawkish camp on monetary policy.  Earlier this month, he said he thought the first interest rate hike might come in 2022.  The median forecast of Fed officials is that liftoff of interest rates won't happen until 2024 at the earliest.  In his remarks, the Dallas Fed chief said he thought the economy was improving & would soon reach the Fed's prerequisite of “substantial further progress.”  “I think we’re going to reach that benchmark sooner than I would have expected in January,” he added.  “I think the U.S. economy would be far healthier when we have the ability to start weaning off those purchases,” he continued.  Kaplan said the asset purchases were very important last year given strains in financial markets & the economy.  But conditions have changed that make adjusting the purchases appropriate, he said.  “We’re now at a point where I’m observing excess and imbalances in financial markets,” he said.  Stocks & the housing market are at historically high levels.

Fed should start talking about tapering, Kaplan says 

Gold futures inched lower to post a fall for the week, on the back of strength in Treasury yields, but prices still scored their first monthly gain of the year.  Gold for Jun fell pocket change to settle at $1767.70 an ounce.  Based on the most-active contracts, gold fell 0.6% for the week, but saw a monthly rise of about 3% — the first monthly climb of the year so far — for the week, settling up 5.5% for the month.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 1.629% today, trading up for the week, but down for the month.  Rising yields can be a headwind for gold because they raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets.

Gold falls for the week, but scores first monthly gain of the year

Oil futures settled with a loss, but finished the month higher.  Oil prices ended the month with a solid gain as mostly upbeat economic data & good earnings results suggest the global recovery is gaining traction and potentially accelerating, which in turn has bolstered the demand outlook.  Jun West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.43 (2.2%) to settle at $63.58 a barrel.  The Jun contract ended the month with a climb of more than 7%. 

Oil futures fall for the session, but tally a gain for the month

The Dow was up 900 in Apr, but that advance came in the first 2 weeks.  Then it was pretty much flat.  More gov spending to stimulate the economy at a time when the recovery is going well does not make sense.  Even the Fed is thinking about when to end its massive bond buying program which is aimed at stimulating the economy.  At the same time, inflation is beginning to raise its ugly head!

Dow Jones Industrials









Markets slide as higher capital gains tax weighs on investors

Dow dropped 245, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell 65.  The MLP indez was off 1+ to 179 & the REIT index stayed close to 430 (record territory).  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries inched higher in price.  Oil was off 1+ to the 63s & gold went up 2 to 1770.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil63.48
-1.53-2.4%












GC=FGold   1,767.70
-0.60-0.0%











 

 




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McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported $5.1B in sales for Q1, up 9% from last year.  Same-store sales jumped 13.6%, up from 2020, while global same-store sales increased 7.5%.   "We're maximizing our marketing in a culturally relevant way, committed to great-tasting customer favorites on our core menu and doubling down on digital, delivery and drive-thru to create a faster and easier customer experience," CEO Chris Kempczinskisaid.  A part of that seems to be from the hype surrounding the chicken sandwich.  MCD released its new iteration of the crispy sandwich in Feb made with a chicken filet, pickles & spicy pepper sauce served on a potato bun, giving customers the option to order it crispy, spicy or deluxe.  The crispy chicken sandwich has been a fast-food phenomenon.   The stock lost 25¢.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7 

McDonald's sees sales boost from chicken sandwich amid COVID-19 rebound

Exxon (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, returned to profitability during Q1, beating top & bottom-line estimates, as the company recovers from the havoc wreaked on the energy sector by the coronavirus pandemic.  The oil giant posted EPS of 65¢, excluding items on $59.2B in revenue.  The forecast was for EPS of 59¢, on $54.6B in revenue.  In Q1 a year earlier, the company lost $610M as the impact of the coronavirus began to weigh.  Last qtr, the company posted a $20B loss, its 4th straight qtr of losses.  “The strong first quarter results reflect the benefits of higher commodity prices and our focus on structural cost reductions, while prioritizing investments in assets with a low cost of supply,” CEO Darren Woods said.  “Cash flow from operating activities during the quarter fully covered the dividend and capital investments.”  Its oil-equivalent production rose 3% qtr-over-qtr to 3.8M barrels per day.  The company said the winter storm that hammered the South cost the company $600M across its businesses.  The stock fell 1.11.
If you would like to learn more about XOM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/XOM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Exxon posts a profit, snapping four-quarter loss stre

After months of a steady climb in vaccinations, the US is experiencing its first true slowdown in the rate of daily shots, an indication that the nation is entering a new phase of its inoculation campaign.  More than ½ of American adults have now received at least one dose, a significant achievement, but getting the 2nd ½ vaccinated brings a different set of challenges than the first.   Vaccinations to date are likely made up largely of groups who most wanted the vaccine & have had greatest access to it, & continued progress is no longer about meeting demand for shots.  “We’ve gotten vaccinations to those most at risk and those most eager to get vaccinated as quickly as possible,” White House Covid czar Jeff Zients said, “and we will continue those efforts, but we know reaching other populations will take time and focus.”  The country is averaging 2.6M reported vaccinations per day over the past week, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention data shows, down from a peak of 3.4M reported shots per day on Apr 13.  That number is trending downward even with eligibility now open to all adults in every state. 

The threat of higher taxes on capital gains is beginning to sink in on investors.  Earnings are coming in fairly good.  The depression in oils is correcting with higher oil prices.  The Dow is up 900 in Apr & close to record territory, not bad to bad all considered.

 Dow Jones Industrials

 






Thursday, April 29, 2021

Markets rise as traders evaluate Biden's plans and corporate earnings

Dow advanced 232 (near session highs & over 34K), advancers and decliners were about even & NAZ added 31.  The MLP index was flattish in the 179s & the REIT index rose 2+ to 430 (record territory).  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries continued weak, bringing higher yields.  Oil went up 1+ to the 65s & gold was off 1 to 1772 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Ford (F) expects a global semiconductor shortage could ease this summer but may not be fully resolved until 2022, as the automaker reported a strong Q1 profit but said the shortage may slash Q2 by ½.  The ongoing chip shortage will cost it about $2.5B & about 1.1M units of lost production in 2021.  The #2 US automaker handily beat the profit estimate for the qtr, with EPS of 81¢, compared with the consensus 21¢.  In last year's Q1, the company lost 50¢ a share.  CEO Jim Farley said: "There are more whitewater moments ahead for us that we have to navigate. The semiconductor shortage and the impact to production will get worse before it gets better. In fact, we believe our second quarter will be the trough for this year."  CFO John Lawler said Ford's outlook was driven largely by a factory fire suffered by Japanese chipmaker Renesas.  The flow of chips from Renesas is expected to be restored in Jul, but the global shortage of automotive semiconductors may not be fully resolved until next year.  The company said the chip shortage will slash full-year earnings before interest and taxes to $5.5-$6.5B.  In Feb, Lawler said the company was on course to earn $8-9B in adjusted EBIT.  Overseas, Ford reported revenue in Europe up 13% to $7.1B & $341M in pre-tax profit, reversing a year-ago loss.  Revenue climbed 39% to $800M in China, where Ford narrowed its loss to $15M, compared with a loss of $241M a year earlier.  Revenue in the qtr increased to $36.2B, from $34.3B a year earlier.   The stock fell 1.19.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Ford posts profit, says chip shortage to slash Q2 output by 50%

Gold futures ended lower for a 3rd-straight session, as Treasury yields moved up following data showing strong Q1 growth in the US economy.  The US economy charged ahead since the start of the year, with GDP, the official scorecard for the US economy, climbing at a 6.4% annual pace in Q1.  Against that backdrop, US yields climbed, with the 10-year rate up nearly 3 basis points at 1.65%.  Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets like gold.  Gold's moves today also followed dovish remarks yesterday by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.  The Fed stuck to its strategy of helping the US economy with ultra-low interest rates.  Gold for Jun lost $5 to settle at $1768 an ounce.  Global gold demand in Q1 dropped from a year ago on the back of a more than 70% year-over-year decline in gold investments, according to a report from the World Gold Council  (WFC).  The WGC said total world gold demand for the qrr was at 815.7 metric tons, down 23% compared with the first qtr of 2020, though it was “on a par” with Q4-2020.

Gold down a third session as Treasury yields move up after U.S. GDP reading

Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, reported results that blew past estimates for its Q1.  EPS was $2.77, up from $1.98 in the year-earlier qtr.  Adjusted EPS came to $2.87, well ahead of the $1.94 estimate.  Sales rose to $11.9B from $10.6B a year ago, also ahead of the $10.9B forecast.  "The increase was due to higher sales volume driven by higher end-user demand and the impact from changes in dealer inventories," the company said in a statement.  "Dealers increased their inventories more during the first quarter of 2021 than during the first quarter of 2020."   But the stock dropped 4.72.
If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7 

Caterpillar shares jump 3% premarket as earnings blow past estimates

Oil futures finished higher for a 3rd straight gain, boosted by optimism over the summer demand outlook, despite surging COVID cases in India.  The US economy charged ahead in the first, 3 months of the year, with GDP, the official scorecard for the US economy, rising at a 6.4% annual pace in Q1.  Weekly jobless benefit claims, meanwhile, declined last week to 553K from a revised 566K a week earlier.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun rose $1.15 (1.8%) to settle at $65.01 a barrel.  That was the highest front-month contract settlement since Mar 15.  Jun Brent crude climbed $1.29 (1.9%) at $68.56 a barrel, ahead of the contract's expiration at the end of tomorrow's session.  Jul Brent, the most actively traded contract, rose $1.27 (1.9%) to $68.05 a barrel.  The EIA report yesterday also showed strong implied US motor gasoline demand, which climbed by 67.5% over the past 4 weeks from the same period a year ago.

Oil extends win streak to third session on demand optimism

Buyers returned in the PM giving Dow a good advance while NAZ only had a modest gain.  The advance decline ratio was even, not a positive sign for the bulls.  Vaccine shots in the US are declining, even though many have not been vaccinated.  Tomorrow will bring more earnings.

Dow Jones Industrials