Dow went up 164, advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ edged up 13. The MLP index declined 1+ to 170 & the REIT index rose 2 to 42o (close to its record highs made more than a year ago). Junk bond funds drifted lower in price & Treasuries were weak. Oil was fractionally lower in the 63s after a solid gain this week & gold rose 12 to 1778 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Stimulus checks, rising coronavirus vaccinations & a rapidly growing economy lifted the spirits of Americans in early Apr & pushed a closely followed survey of consumer attitudes to a 13-month high. The consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 in Apr from 84.9 in the prior month, according to a preliminary survey by the Univ of Mich. That's the highest level since the pandemic erupted in the US. in Mar 2020. The index had touched a 16-year high of 101 just a month earlier. The attitude of Americans about their own personal finances & the broader economy right now also climbed to a 13-month high. The index of current conditions rose to 97.2 from 93 in Mar. By comparison, the index stood at 114.8 in Feb 2020. A forward-looking gauge on what consumers expect 6 months from now, however, showed lingering anxiety about the pandemic, including the safety of coronavirus vaccines. The index was unchanged at 79.7. The gov has halted the use of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) single-dose vaccine after reports of blood clots in a tiny number of patients. What also is playing into the anxiety of Americans is higher inflation. Consumers tend to notice higher prices initially thru rising gasoline prices, which have climbed sharply since the end of last year. Consumers expect the rate of inflation, now at 2.6%, to increase to as high as 3.7%. The last time they expected such a relatively high rate of inflation was a decade ago. Yet like senior Federal Reserve officials, consumers expect inflation to taper off in the longer run to a 2.7% annual rate. On the brighter side, ½ of all those survey expect a decline in unemployment. The US is surging again as gov stimulus money flows into the economy, govs relax pandemic restrictions & businesses seek to hire in anticipation of strong sales in the months ahead. The gov yesterday reported a 10% increase in US retail sales in Mar while unemployment claims sank almost 200K to a new pandemic low of 576K. The only obstacle to growth? Another spike in coronavirus cases. The number of people catching the virus is no longer declining, but it hasn't risen very much, either.
Americans are feeling the best they’ve felt since the pandemic began, consumer survey shows
The Biden administration announced it will allocate $1.7B toward tracking the highly infectious coronavirus variants that now pose a major threat to the US' fight against the pandemic. The funds, taken from the $1.9T Covid relief plan signed into law last month, will be used to help improve the detection, monitoring & mitigation of “new and potentially dangerous strains,” the White House said. The Covid variants now comprise about ½ of all cases in the US, according to the White House. The mutations can be up to 70% more transmissible than the original strain, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said. Their continued spread “makes the race to stop the transmission even more challenging and threatens to overwhelm our health-care system again in parts of this country,” Walensky added. She noted that B.1.1.7, the variant originally identified in the UK, accounted for 44% of US Covid circulation during the week of Mar 27. The spread of variants is contributing to a “very concerning” rise in cases, hospitalizations and emergency room visits, Walensky said. Average daily deaths have increased for the 3rd day in a row to more than 700, she continued. The White House said $1B of the administration's latest coronavirus investment will be used to help the CDC & other health officials expand genomic sequencing, which will help them identify mutations. “The emergence of variants underscores the critical need for rapid and ongoing genomic surveillance,” Walensky said.
U.S. to spend $1.7 billion tracking dangerous new Covid variants
Gold futures ended higher for a 2nd straight day, with bullion posting the sharpest weekly percentage rise of the year. The precious metal benefited from benchmark bond yields receding for the week, a decline in the $ & a pullback in bitcoin, one of the assets seen competing against safe haven gold. Jun gold rose $13 (0.8%) to settle at $1780, following a 1.8% gain yesterday. For the week, gold saw a weekly rise of about 2%, its biggest weekly advance since the period ended last Dec. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 1.56%, below its recent range between 1.60% & 1.75%. A fall in gov debt yields can boost appetite for precious metals which don't earn a coupon. In related news, China has given domestic & intl banks permission to import large amounts of gold into the country. That follows a report that said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang wanted to strengthen control of raw materials to ease the cost pressure of companies. That put pressure on Chinese steel futures earlier this week.
Gold prices end higher, notch best weekly gain of the year
Oil futures pulled back, settling lower after posting 4 consecutive session gains, but prices scored a more than 6% weekly climb. Support from a strong economic report from China helped to offset pressure from concerns that rising cases of COVID in parts of the world threaten a fitful recovery from the demand-sapping pandemic. The energy markets have so far been buttressed by monthly reports that point to a healthy recovery from the pandemic, as well as tensions between the US versus Iran & Russia, which could have some impact on crude markets. This week, the International Energy Agency lifted its forecast for oil demand this year in its monthly report & data from the Energy Information Administration revealed a 3rd straight weekly decline in US crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May fell 33¢ (0.5%) to settle at at $63.13 a barrel. Jun Brent crude edged down 17¢ (0.3%) at $66.77 a barrel. It hit a notable intraday high today above $67, after the global benchmark picked up 0.5% yesterday. For the week, WTI saw a weekly gain of 6.4%, while Brent marked a rise of 6.1%, based on the front-month contracts. Those were the best weekly returns for both contracts since the week ended Mar 5. Today, the focus for oil traders was on China which reported that its first-qtr GDP jumped 18.3% on a year-on-year basis. A report on retail sales for the People's Republic, one of the biggest importers of crude, also showed a more than 34% rise. Baker Hughes data revealed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil was up by 7 this week at 344, suggesting the likelihood of higher production ahead.
Oil prices finish lower, but score a more than 6% weekly climb
The stock averages had another great week, taking them to new records. The economic news was good along with with earnings reports from the big banks (helped by lowering amounts set aside for bad loans). The news on the vaccine front was respectable, although the number of deaths each day continues at worrisome levels.
Dow Jones Industrials
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