Monday, April 26, 2021

Markets meander ahead of earnings and the Fed meeting at mid-week

Dow was off 61 (near session lows & below 34K), advancers over decliners roughly 2-1 although NAZ shot up 121.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 175s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 428s.  Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries saw a little selling.  Oil ended a little lower in the high 61s & gold crawled up 2 to 1789 (more on both below).

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A coalition of 17 senators is calling on Pres Biden to expand Medicare as part of his next massive economic spending bill.  In a letter, the group of mostly Dems – led by Sen Bernie Sanders – urged Biden to lower the Medicare eligibility age, expand Medicare benefits to include vision, dental & hearing coverage, allow the program to negotiate lower drug prices & establish a limit on out-of-pocket expenses under traditional Medicare.  "We have an historic opportunity to make the most significant expansion of Medicare since it was signed into law," the lawmakers wrote.  "We look forward to working with you to make this a reality and, in the process, substantially improve the lives of millions of older Americans and persons with disabilities."  Biden is expected to release details of the 2nd part of his Build Back Better agenda, dubbed the American Families Plan, ahead of his address to a joint session of Congress on Wed.  The proposal could cost as much as $1.5T & will focus on child care, paid family leave & other domestic priorities.  It's unclear whether the administration plans to address health care in the tax & spending plan.  Biden is also facing pressure from Dems in the House who want the White House to use the American Families Plan to include 3 Medicare-related provisions: allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, expand Medicare by lowering the eligibility age from 65 to 60 & extend Medicare to include dental, vision & hearing care.  Over 20 Dems sent a letter to Biden today asking the White House to include those provisions in the forthcoming plan.  Although details remain in flux, the measure will likely be fully paid for with new tax increases aimed at wealthy Americans & investors.  Some tax increases currently under consideration include restoring the top marginal tax rate to 39.6%, where it sat before the 2017 tax overhaul, taxing capital gains as ordinary income above a certain threshold & eliminating the stepped-up basis at death.

Dem senators urge Biden to expand Medicare in next big spending bill

India reported a record number of Covid-19 cases for the 5th straight day while the official death toll also jumped.  Official data showed there were 353K new reported cases over a 24-hour period as total infection numbers crossed 17M.  At least 2812 people died which pushed the total death toll to over 195K — media reports suggest that the official death rate is likely undercounted.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi's gov has faced criticism for allowing large crowds to gather for religious festivals & election rallies in various parts of the country this year.  Prior to the 2nd wave, India had on average around 10K new cases daily.  But so far in Apr alone, the South Asian nation has reported more than 5M new cases, sending the country's health care system to the brink.  Hospitals have run out of beds & are turning away even critically ill patients.  There is a severe oxygen supply shortage, partly due to uneven distribution across states.  That has led to the deaths of many Covid-19 patients as the gov scrambles to send supplies to the worst-hit states by road, rail & air.

India reports 350,000 new Covid cases, a fifth straight day of record infections

Gold futures kicked off the week with a modest move higher, recouping just over ½ what they lost in Fri's trading session, as traders looked ahead to this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers.  Gold for Jun inched up $2 to settle at $1780 an ounce, after trading as low as $1768.  Prices for the contract on Fri had posted a small loss.  The Federal Reserve will conclude a 2-day policy meeting on Wed.  No change in policy is expected & Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to continue insisting that interest rates are unlikely to rise before 2022 despite improving economic data & rising inflation fears.  Meanwhile, gold prices briefly moved up to turn slightly higher, then moved back down not long after today's release of US durable goods orders for Mar.  The gov reported that orders for durable goods rose 0.5% last month.  The forecast had forecast a 2.2% increase.

Gold settles higher as traders await Fed meeting

White House chief medical advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said that Americans should begin to see a turning point in the pandemic “within a few weeks.”  The US has been averaging about 3M Covid-19 vaccination shots per day, Fauci said.  Meanwhile, the nation reported a 7-day average of 58K new Covid cases per day as of yesterday, according to Johns Hopkins University.  That's down 14% from a week ago.  If the US continues its vaccination pace, “literally within a few weeks, we’re going to start to see a turning around of the dynamics,” Fauci added.  “Not down to no infections,” he said.  “If you’re waiting for classic measles-like herd immunity, that’s going to be a while before we get there. But that doesn’t mean we’re not going to have a significant diminution in the number of infections per day and a significant diminution in all of the parameters, namely hospitalizations and deaths.” 

Fauci says U.S. should see a turning point in the pandemic ‘within a few weeks’

Oil futures fell to extend overall losses from last week, but prices settled above the session's worst levels.  Some analysts expect India's rise in COVID-19 cases to potentially lead to significant declines in energy demand, but that may also prompt major oil producers to postpone planned production increases when they meet later this week.  OPEC & its allies (known as OPEC+) held a technical meeting today to review the oil markets, ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting Wed.  OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo highlighted an improving oil market outlook but also emphasized that there are many factors that require ongoing monitoring & vigilance.  Oil prices pared earlier declines.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun fell 23¢ to settle at $61.91 a barrel after tapping an intraday low at $60.66.  Jun Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 46¢ (0.7%) at $65.65 a barrel, following earlier lows well under $65.

Oil ends slightly lower on bets that India’s COVID dilemma may lead OPEC+ to postpone output hike

After buying at the opening, thoughts of higher taxes scared investors for the rest of the trading session even if they are targeted at others (the rich ones).  One saving grace is that so far it is "only talk."  The vaccine shots appear to be doing their work in the US.  Unfortunately other countries (i.e. India, Japan & western European) are still suffering.  That is a drag on the global economy but investors are keeping their cool for the time being.

Dow Jones Industrials








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