Dow dropped 96 (close to session lows), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ lost 7. The MLP index fluctuated in the 168s & the REIT index rose 1 to 411. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries remained in demand bringing lower yields. Oil went above 59 & gold jumped 16 to 1745 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The pace of job openings reached the highest level on record in Feb, a harbinger of healthy hiring & a hopeful sign for those looking for work. The job openings rate, the number of available jobs as a percentage of the employed & the open jobs, combined, rose to 4.9%, the highest since the data was first tracked in 2000, the Labor Dept reported. The increase reflects a solid rise in open jobs to 7.4M, up from 7.1M in Jan & significantly above the pre-pandemic level of about 7M. Total hires rose to 5.7M, though that is below the figure in Feb 2020, just before the coronavirus intensified. The data come from the Job Openings & Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS) which reports the number of job listings, total hiring, & layoffs & quits. The hiring figures represent a gross figure, while the monthly jobs report provides a net number of jobs gained or lost. Last Fri, the gov said a net 916K jobs were added, the most since Aug & the unemployment rate fell to 6%, from 6.2%. Still, the job market is far from healed. Including those who have lost jobs & stopped looking for work, as well as misclassification of some unemployed, the unemployment rate would be roughly 9%. There are still 9.7M people counted as unemployed, about 1.3 people out of work for each job opening. But the jump in available jobs suggests hiring may continue at the robust levels seen in Mar. The Labor Dept reported Fri that America's employers unleashed a burst of hiring last month, adding 916K jobs. The biggest gain was in health care, which posted 230K more job openings than the previous month. The beleaguered leisure & hospitality sector, which includes restaurants, hotels, bars, amusement parks & casinos, also posted a healthy increase of 160K job openings.
US job openings in February reached highest rate on record
Nearly a ¼ of all unemployed workers in the US have been out of work for at least a year, a stretch of joblessness dating to the early days of the Covid pandemic. The dynamic speaks to persistent, & rising, long-term joblessness even as the national unemployment rate falls. That divergence is unusual during downturns & highlights the unequal (or K-shaped) nature of the recovery, economists said. Nearly 2.4M Americans were unemployed 52 weeks or more in Mar, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's almost double the number in Feb & is about 1.6M more people than in Mar 2020. In all, those long-term unemployed represented 24% of the 9.9M total jobless workers last month. The data are without seasonal adjustments. The statistics offer the first glimpse of joblessness a year after officials began issuing lockdown orders to contain the coronavirus & Ms of Americans began filing for unemployment benefits. And that number is likely an undercount since the department doesn't consider certain workers, like those who left the labor force entirely due to pandemic health risks or child-care duties. The share may rise next month, since the current numbers only offer a snapshot thru the middle of last month, which doesn't quite align with the flood of unemployment filings toward late Mar & into Apr 2020. The bureau doesn't break out these long-term unemployment numbers by industry. But it's likely that workers among this group are overrepresented in the hardest-hit industries, like leisure & hospitality. More than 3M jobs in that sector have yet to return, accounting for more than a 3rd of the total. Long-term unemployment has risen steadily throughout the health crisis & is near the laat recession's peak. Economists consider workers to be long-term unemployed after at least 6 months without work.
24% of unemployed workers have been jobless for over a yearRep Alcee Hastings died today after a more than 2-year bout with pancreatic cancer. Hastings, who served in the House for nearly 3 decades, was 84. Throughout his career, he held several key committee assignments & leadership positions, most recently as vice chairman of the rules committee. Dems now hold a narrower advantage in the House, 218-211, giving the party a smaller margin of error in passing legislation. 6 seats are vacant, 4 of which were previously held by Dems & 2 by Reps. One of the 2 vacant GOP seats is no longer up for contest. Julia Letlow of Louisiana was elected in late Mar but has yet to be sworn in. Julia will replace her late husband, Luke Letlow, who was elected to the seat but died before being sworn in due to Covid-19 complications.
Rep. Alcee Hastings dies, narrowing Democratic House majority to just 7
Gold futures settled higher, with the IMF raising its global economic growth outlook & a decline in yields for US benchmark bonds pushing prices up for a 4th consecutive session to their highest finish since late Feb. The most-active Jun gold contract gained $14 (0.8%) to settle at $1743 an ounce. Gold prices logged a 4th straight gain, matching its longest string of advances since a similar stretch ended Feb 10. Prices based on the most-active contract settled at their highest since Feb 25. Data from BullionVault shows that gold investment among private investors has fallen to pre-pandemic levels, with gold demand at the online precious metals dealer falling in Mar to 24 kilos, worth less than $1.4M.
Gold prices up a fourth session to mark highest finish in over 5 weeks
The IMF raised its global economic outlook, citing a much brighter picture for the US economy. The IMF raised its US outlook sharply in 2021 to 6.4% this year from 5.1% & the US should see solid 4.4% growth in 2022. The Fed sees the US economy growing at a 6.5% pace this year but with a steeper slowdown to a 3.3% growth rate in 2022. The IMF raised its estimate for global growth to 6% this year & 4.4% next year. This represents an upgrade of 0.5% for 2021 & 0.2% for 2022 from what it forecast in Jan. Gita Gopinath, the IMF's economic counsellor, said “a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.” Losses over the medium term from the pandemic are likely to be smaller than in the aftermath of the financial crisis. But this time, low-income countries & emerging markets will suffer more compared with the fallout from the last recession. The only region to see a downgrade in growth this year were the “ASEAN-5” —Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam. Projected growth for these 5 nations combined in 2021 was cut to 4.9% from a previous forecast of 5.2%. Gopinath cautioned the forecast is highly uncertain & much still depends on the race between the COVID-19 virus & vaccines. Rising long-term interest rates in the US won't pose difficulties for other countries unless markets get a sense that Federal Reserve policy needs to tighten abruptly. Prominent central banks will need to provide clear communication as they begin to tighten monetary policy, the IMF added. The IMF said inflation pressure would remain contained in most countries.
IMF lifts outlook for global and U.S. growth
Oil futures ended higher, finding support as some economic data from China & US. suggest improved prospects for energy demand, & as discussions toward reviving the Iran nuclear deal made little progress. Traders shifted attention away from last week's decision by major producers to boost oil output to focus on talks that began today in an effort to bring the US back to the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which would which would lead to a lifting of US sanctions that have curtailed Iranian crude exports. Prospects for an agreement anytime soon, however, are dim. The White House said it expects a “long process” to reach an agreement. The US & Iran aren't meeting directly, & representatives from European & other nations are serving as go-betweens instead. Through those intermediaries, the US & Iran agreed to establish 2 working groups to try to get both countries back into compliance with the Iran nuclear deal. West Texas Intermediate crude for May rose 68¢ (1.2%) to settle at $59.33 a barrel, below the session’s high of $60.90. Jun Brent, the global benchmark, added 59¢ (1%) at $62.74 a barrel. Crude fell more than 4% yesterday, with pressure tied to last week's decision by OPEC & its allies (OPEC+) to relax output curbs. The plan would put more than 2M barrels a day of production back on the market by Jul. The Caixin China Services purchasing managers index climbed to 54.3 in Mar, rebounding from a 10-month low of 51.5, Caixin Media & research firm Markit said. A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in activity. Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed a survey of US business leaders at service-oriented firms jumped to 63.7% last month from 55.3% in Feb.
Oil end higher, lifted by upbeat economic data and little progress toward an Iran nuclear deal
While the economic recovery is doing fairly well, it is uneven & the stories above talk about the hardest hit who still need help. The new spending bill designed to cover 10 years & emphasize pet projects will have only a limited impact on those who need help now. In the meantime, the fight against the virus is making progress with the many shots being given out. But the daily number of deaths continues at troubling levels.
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