Friday, January 18, 2008

After short oversold rally, stocks down

I was getting ready to write about the oversold rally. After stocks sold off as badly as they have in the last few days, it was time for an oversold rally. It sort of happened. Dow was up 180 early on, then the president spoke. He proposed a $145B economy plan, the market didn't think much of it. At a minimum the Dems in congress have to pass the legislation, that won't come without a fight! Congress will be happy to pass any spending bill in an election year (to keep their jobs) but will fight over what is in it. Dow has fallen badly from it's high to down 56, decliners over advancers 3-2 and NAZ down 6. So much for the oversold rally.

Banks, REITs & junk bond funds are down in the depths, many at lowest prices in a few years. Yields are high, for junk bond funds they can be 700 basis points above the Treasury bond yield at a very low 3.63% (bonds have had a very nice rally in the last 6 months). MLPs, also with high yields, have fallen thru an important technical level. For the last 6 months they have been living in the 290-310 range. Today they fell thru the floor to 288. I'm not a technical expert but know a lot will say, uh-oh!

 (^AMZ)

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