Friday, May 28, 2010

May, down month finishes on a down note

Stocks were under water all day. Dow was off 122 (with selling into the close), decliners over advancers better than 3-2 & NAZ dropped 20. Banks also sold off, the Financial Index went back below 200 (turning out to be not all that significant).


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
197.42
Change
-4.33
% Change
-2.1%






MLPs had a very difficult month (along with the rest of the market). The index fell ½ today in the 292s but is substantially below its starting point of 311. The REIT index fell 2 in the 199s. Junk bond funds were roughly 1% lower after enduring one of their worst months in history. The VIX chart below tells the story for May. It gained almost 1½ today to the 31s, still in a high region. Treasuries had a stellar month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 4 basis points today to 3.3% & has fallen an eye popping 36 basis points in May.

Alerian MLP Index -- 1 month




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 1 month




VIX --- 1 month




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 1month





Oil fell back on worries about sluggish economic growth slowing demand for oil. Gold was flat, awaiting developments.

CLN10.NYM..Crude Oil Jul 10..74.18 ..Down 0.37
......(0.5%)

GCM10.CMX..Gold Jun 10..1,211.50 ..Down 0.40
......(0.0%)


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Spain lost its AAA rating at Fitch amid a European fiscal crisis that prompted the European Union to come up with a $1T bailout package for the weakest. The rating was cut one step to AA+ & assigned a “stable” outlook. Spain held the top rating at Fitch since 2003. Standard & Poor’s lowered Spain’s ratings to AA one month ago. The $1T bailout package may make it easier for agencies to cut ratings when deserved, since there will be less pressure making them look like "bad guys." Spain is struggling to cut the euro region’s 3rd-largest budget deficit. The economy, still reeling from the collapse of a debt-fueled construction boom, is expected to contract for a 2nd full year. The Spanish gov has angered supporters by cutting public wages & freezing pensions. But these moves have failed to convince investors it can put its finances back in order with borrowing costs surging.

Spain Loses AAA Rating at Fitch on Concern Debt Burden Will Hamper Growth



The House passed a scaled-back economic-stimulus package of tax breaks & safety net spending that would raise taxes on fund managers & multinational corporations. Dems claim the bill will help bring down the 9.9% unemployment rate (where have I herd that before?), but it comes too late for hundreds of thousands who will see jobless benefits expire starting next week. The bill extends benefits thru Nov, but the Senate left for a week-long break without taking action. Democrats hope to restore payments when they return the week of Jun 7. However the unemployed also face a permanent loss of health-care subsidies, which were stripped out of the bill. The bill passed 215 - 204, largely along party lines.




The downgrade on the Spanish debt hurt, but hardly a surprise. The € fell back below $1.23. The president is watching workers clean up the mess on the Gulf coast. Swell but the mess drags on. US markets will be closed on Mon, but Asian & European markets will be open, trading on happenings over the weekend. Dow dropped over 850 in May with unusually high volatility. This could be a signal for a long, hot summer.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month








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Markets take a rest after yesterday's gains

Dow fell 81, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off 23. This is called profit taking after big gains yesterday. Banks are also pulling back, bringing the Financial Index back below 200. That important support level ceiling has been breached many times in the last 9 months.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
198.65
Change
-3.10
% Change
-1.5%


Ther are little changes in the high yielders going into a long weekend. The MLP index is up ½ in the 293s & the REIT index is down 1½ to 200. Junk bond funds are off fractionally (pretty much even) in uneventful trading. The VIX, volatility index, is about ½ lower, still in the 30s after a wild time in May. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell almost 3 basis points to 3.31%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks





Oil was up, staying in its trading zone while gold is resting before its next move up.

CLN10.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 10...74.88 ...Up 0.33
.......(0.44%)

GCM10.CMX...Gold Jun 10...1,206.70 ...Down 5.20
.......(0.4%)

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Consumer spending disappointingly was stagnant in Apr while incomes posted a tiny advance, more signs that the economic recovery is slowing. Unchanged spending came following a 0.6% rise in Mar. Flat spending level was the weakest showing in 7 months & below an expected a 0.3% rise. Personal incomes rose 0.4%, slightly off expectations. More people are holding onto money. The savings rate rose to 3.6% in Apr from 3.1% in Mar (the lowest since Oct 2008).

Consumer Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Stalls as Americans Rebuild Savings


Consumer income - 1 year




Consumer savings rate - 1 year









Photo: Yahoo


Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, commonly called Shell) will pay $4.7B to buy privately held East Resources, giving it more exposure to crucial shale gas in North America. However, the deal will put pressure on Shell's balance sheet at a time the company is already planning substantial spending. Shell's daily gas production in North America will increase about 7.5% by giving it access to Marcellus Shale, the northeastern US rock formation that is a crucial source of future US gas production. Shale gas accounts for 15-20% of US gas production & is expected to quadruple in coming years. There are worries that this acquisition by weakening the balance sheet will keep Shell from increasing its div over the next 2 years. RDS.A is down 31¢ to 51.70 & yields 6.4%.


Shell Taps Shale With $4.7 Billion East Resources Buy


Royal Dutch Shell --- 2 years





Traders have been cashing in profits to take a very long weekend holiday. Bond traders who were long 10 & 30 year Treasury bonds have a lot of profits earned in May. Dow is slipping & sliding, about ready to give it a triple digit loss & bringing it back to the important 10K level.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Chinese sun shines on stock markets

Stocks began higher, never looked back & closed at their highs. Dow rose 284, advancers over decliner 9-1 & NAZ popped 81. The only loser in the Dow was Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). All investors needed was to hear that China said it remains a long-term investor in Europe. Sounds good, but not sure that statement will do much to solve fundamental Euro financial problems. Bank stocks had a tremendous day. The Financial Index leaped forward going over 200 (first reached 9 months ago).


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
201.74
Change
8.60
% Change
4.5%






MLPs had an excellent day, advancing a very big 7¼ to the 292s (down 18 in May). The REIT index advanced an enormous 10½ to 202 (one of its best days ever). Many junk bond funds were up around 2%. High yielders are back in demand as the VIX dropped 5 to 30 on easing fears. Treasuries continued to sell off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond gained 12 basis points to 3.34% (a very large gain for one day).


Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 1 month




VIX --- 1 month





While oil had an excellent day, it's still merely heading for the high end of its longer term trading range. Gold was flattish but only needs a modest nudge to reach no record highs.

CLN10.NYM..Crude Oil Jul 10..74.59 ..Up 3.08
......(4.3%)

GCM10.CMX..Gold Jun 10..1,210.50 ..Down 2.90
......(0.2%)


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Dems scrambled to shore up support for a package of tax breaks & safety-net spending amid concerns about its $84B cost & doubts about a tax hike on fund managers. The House is expected to vote after slashing its costs by nearly a third, but prospects for passage appear uncertain as there is a feeling it would add too much to the deficit. Dems hope to pass the bill in the House & Senate by week's end to avoid disrupting jobless benefits & other expiring safety-net provisions. But there might be barriers in the Senate. Expiration of jobless benefits could damage an already fragile recovery

House Nears Vote on Job Bill With Buyout Tax Increase



The president finally had a press conference to answer a lot of questions on the oil spill. He announced there will be no offshore drilling for 6 months, but that does little to help the mess that shows no sign of ending. The € rallied about a penny to $1.23½ on the enthusiasm coming from China. Markets had their big day to clear out oversold conditions (now reversing into overbought conditions). The Dow remains down 1K from its 2010 highs & off about 750 in May. Risk averse is out & high yielders are back in demand. However, May showed how quickly emotions about owning high yielders vs safe haven securities can change.

Dow Jones Industrials -- 1 month







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Strong markets after China announces commitment to European investments

Stocks jumped out of the gate with large gains & stayed at high levels. Dow gained 190, advancers over decliners 10-1 (hard to find a loser) & NAZ is up 56. China announced it's firmly behind European investments which eased many concerns about the strength of European financial markets. Bank stocks did quite well as the Financial Index makes another attempt to top 200.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
199.07
Change
5.93
% Change
3.1%


The Alerian MLP Index shot up 6½ to the 292s, solidly in the black YTD. Its 270 floor held in Feb & again in May, impressive. The REIT index rose 4½ to the 196s. Junk bond funds gained about 2% despite gloomy news discussed below. Fears have eased as the VIX, volatility index, dropped 5 to 30. Treasuries had a very sharp sell-off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond exploded 13 basis points to 3.35%, still low relative to yields in the last year.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index - 1 year





Oil is having another good day as it reestablishes the 70-75 trading range. Gold is essentially even, ready to take off on the next round of financial fears.

CLN10.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 10...73.39 ...Up 1.79
.......(2.5%)

GCM10.CMX...Gold Jun 10...1,211.80 ...Down 1.60
.......(0.1%)



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Photo: Bloomberg


The number of claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week but remains higher than expected, indicating only modest improvements in the job market. Applications for unemployment benefits fell 14K to 460K last week (higher than forecasts of 455K). This decline came after claims had risen by a revised 28K in the previous week (largest gain in 3 months). The latest level is slightly higher than it was at the start of the year, workers are still facing tough times even though the overall economy is growing again. The 4-week average for new jobless claims edged up to 457K last week. The number receiving benefits fell 49K to 4.64M for the prior week. That figure does not include unemployed workers who have exhausted their regular 26 weeks of benefits. An additional 5.3M workers are receiving extended benefits. 29 states & territories saw an increase in applications for unemployment benefits while 24 saw a decline. Unemployment numbers keep plodding along

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell Last Week to 460,000


Jobless claims - 1 year





The percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress surged this week to the highest since 2009, responsible for the sharp sell-off in junk bond funds early in the week. Investors dumped debt of the neediest borrowers on concern Europe’s fiscal crisis will make it harder for them to refinance. Over 17% of junk bonds yield at least 1000 basis points (10 percentage points) over Treasuries, up from 9.2% last month, the biggest since the distress ratio rose 11 percentage points in Nov 2008. US distressed bonds have lost 10% in May, see my Instablog article at SeekingAlpha.com posted an hour ago), amid speculation Greece & other nations in Europe with rising budget deficits won’t be able to meet their debt payments. Junk bond sales plunged this month to the lowest level since Mar 2009. Junk bonds are just stocks with high yields.

http://seekingalpha.com/author/avi-morris/instablog

Bond Distress Rises to Highest Since 2009 as Sales Vanish: Credit Markets



Tiffany (TIF) more than doubled net income in Q1 as revenue grew in the US & soared 50% in Asia. TIF also forecast higher full-year profits. However spending is being compared with sharp declines last year. Chairman & CEO Michael J. Kowalski said "it is prudent to maintain a modicum of caution in our outlook due to global economic uncertainties." TIF earned 50¢ per share, in Q1 ended Apr 30 compared with 20¢ last year. Revenue rose 22% to $633.6M. Revenue in the Americas increased 22% to $315.3M which compares with a 31% drop in the year-ago period. Adjusted for currency fluctuations, revenue rose 20% & revenue at stores open at least a year rose 15%, led by flagship store on New York's Fifth Avenue which rose 26%. Investors liked the news, TIF rose 2.70 to 46.29.

Tiffany's 1Q profit more than doublesAP


Tiffany --- 2 years






China standing behind Europe & is a potential backer if European finances got ugly, was a boost the markets needed. But economic data remains dreary. Jobless claims can't break below the 450K level, high unemployment will drag on. BP (BP) keeps putting junk in the well to plug the leak. Even with today's gains, Dow is only slightly above 10K & the S&P 500 at 1093 is below the 1100 level which technicians consider important. One clear message from today's markets, high yielders are hot again.


Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 weeks







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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Morning gains fizzle, Dow is back below 10,000

Stocks sank in the last 2 hours. Dow fell 69 (closing at its lows & back below 10K), but advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was off 15. Only 8 Dow stocks rose while IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT) & McDonald's (MCD) were the big losers, each down 1+. Banks also slipped from early gains, bringing down the Financial Index. It's above 2010 lows but also 30 below its highs reached last month.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value
193.14
Change
-1.25
% Change
-0.6%







The Alerian MLP Index jumped 6¼ to the 285s, but down 3 from its highs & down 1 YTD. The REIT index fell a fraction in the 191s. Junk bond funds were up, maybe 2%. The VIX came off its earlier lows, reducing its loss to essentially even in the 34s. Fear is creeping back in with PM selling. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 6 basis points, more profit taking by successful bond traders.

Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index -- YTD





Oil & gold had good days. Oil remains in its sideways trading zone, but gold may want to take out record highs. As long as economic confusion reigns in Europe, gold should be very strong.


Oil...70.95__2.20__3.20
Gold...1,210.80__12.80__1.07

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Italy’s planning €25B ($30B) of budget cuts in the next 2 years because they are “absolutely necessary” to defend the €. The measures are part of a European effort to convince investors the region can tame budget deficits & shore up the €. The package should reduce Italy’s budget deficit an additional 1.6% of GDP to bring the shortfall within the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2012 from 5.3% last year. This is a new concept for Euro zone members, fiscal restraint. The budget cuts include a 3-year wage freeze for civil servants, a 10% budget cut for ministries, €4½B in reduced transfers to regional govs, a partial amnesty on illegal construction & a crackdown on tax evasion. Unions were divided over the measures, with the CGIL, the nation’s largest, saying it would call for a general strike in Jun to protest cuts. The CISL & UIL unions have not called for protests so far.

Italy Adopts $30 Billion of Budget Cuts in European Push to Tame Deficits



In the rush to fix struggling savings banks in Spain, Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo’s proposal to merge with 3 smaller savings banks, creating a lender with €135B ($167B) in assets. The combination would allow them keep separate branches & workforces. Huh? The idea of a merger is to cut costs (i.e. jobs). Spain is pushing for mergers between “cajas,” lenders run as foundations that helped fund the country’s property boom & account for about half of its loans. By melding ailing lenders with stronger partners, the central bank aims to purge bad loans & lay the groundwork for recovery as the gov tackles budget deficit. But their approach is not aimed at solving economic problems, just giving that appearance!

Spain's Rush to Fix Ailing Savings Banks Risks Leaving the Job Half Done



BP stock has been hammered hard after causing the greatest oil spill in history which they are still trying to plug. Analysts are split roughly 50-50 between buy & hold for BP. Aren't you glad you didn't listen to them? One stepped up front today & said he is recommending the stock. The stock has fallen so far that its yield is pushing 8%, a nice return when risk free instruments yield so little. He figures they have enough cash & ongoing cash flow to survive the economic storm they are going thru. He is recommending watching the stock & pretty much "buy on the dips." The yield is nice, but should be limited to the very aggressive who are willing to endure the upcoming firestorm. The stock was up 15¢ to 42.41 (down from the 60s in Jan).


BP --- YTD





Euro zone problems described above are only a few that must be dealt with. Most countries are not willing to make necessary sacrifices. That's why the € fell below $1.22. Dow is back to shooting for 10K again. The latest news on the oil spill is that BP is trying again to plug one hole. We all hope they are finally successful.

Dow Jones Industrials -- YTD







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