Monday, May 17, 2010

Lower € drags down stocks

Dow drops again & looks like it's heading for the May 7 low of 10,380. Dow is down 71 (near its lows for the day), decliners ahead of advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ slipped 12. Banks are leading the decline with the Financial Index also near its lows of the day. Besides dreary news about the the European bailout package, banks are also looking to DC to see how bad the new financial regulation bill will be.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
203.89
Change
-2.58
% Change
-1.3%


MLPs sold off again. The index drop almost 3 to the 294s, the lowest in 3 months (ignoring the spike down 2 weeks ago). The REIT index fell 1. Junk bond funds were weak as investors are looking for higher yields on risky debt. Junk bond funds have been sliding all month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1 basis point to 3.45%, remaining in its lower range after the plunge 2 weeks ago. The VIX, volatility index, was up a fraction in the 31s (double its lows earlier this month).


Alerian MLP Index --- 1 week




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil dipped below 70 (15 month low) but buying brought it back above. The price decline has no visible fundamental basis, it's essentially due to changing of moods in financial markets. Gold is just below last week's record prices. More investors are thinking about adding gold to their portfolios these days.


Oil...70.67__-0.94__-1.3%
Gold...1,236.50__8.70__0.7%

Gold Super Cycle!!
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GLD (ETF) --- 1 month






Tomorrow Greece will receive the first installment of €14½B in bailout money, just one day before €8½B ($10½B) of bonds is due. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made its initial contribution of €5½B week (& a chunk of this money comes from the US). These loans are expected to cover financing needs for May & Jun. To receive these loans, Greece raised taxes, cut wages & reduced gov spending to tame a deficit that reached 13.6% of GDP last year (more than 4 times the EU limit). But the € is waffling around at $1.23½, near its 4 years lows. The Greek drama plays on.

Greece to Get First EU Loans Tomorrow, Official Says



Lowe's (LOW) net income rose 2.7% in Q1 as people spent more money on home-improvement projects & bought more big-ticket items. As a result, they raised guidance for the year, though it fell shy of expectations. LOW earned 34¢ a share in Q1 (ended Apr 30) compared to 32¢ last year. Revenue rose 4.7% to $12.4B. Revenue at stores open at least a year rose 2.4% in Q1. CEO Robert Niblock said people are again taking on projects & buying big-ticket items with gov stimulus programs, including tax credit for home buyers & rebates for energy-efficient products, & warmer weather also helping results. He guidance included, "We're optimistic we'll continue to see solid sales through the balance of the year with gradual improvement in core demand, but we still view 2010 as a year of transition for our industry, and it will likely be 2011 before we see significant growth." The stock dropped 1 & has had a choppy time of it thru the recession.


Lowe's --- 2 years






BP is finally having some success in capping the leak of oil into the Gulf. But Congress is going to put BP in the hot seat this week, & they will have a lot of explaining to do. However, the European bailout package is dominating thinking in the markets. That thinking is not favorable because there is no quick solution to solve major fundamental problems.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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