Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Markets fall after Fed official wants to raise rates quickly

Dow slid back 49, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ dropped 207,  The MLP index fell 1+ to 210 & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 489s.  Junk bond funds declined & Treasuries were very heavily sold, raising the yield on the 10 year Treasury up a whopping 12 basis points to 2.54% (more below).  Oil was fractionally lower to the 102s & gold held steady at 1934.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil103.61
   +0.33+0.3%













GC=FGold   1,941.40
   +7.40+0.4%




















 

 




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!

The European Commission proposed banning Russian coal as part of a new round of sanctions against the Kremlin for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.  "We will impose an import ban on coal from Russia, worth 4B euros ($4.39 billion) per year. This will cut another important revenue source for Russia," European Commission Pres Ursula von der Leyen announced.  It marks another significant escalation in punitive measures against the Kremlin. Imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector has been a challenge for the bloc given the high level of dependency that some member states have on the country's resources.  According to data from the European statistics office, the EU imported 19.3% of its coal from Russia in 2020.  It imported 36.5% of its oil from the country in the same year & 41.1% of its natural gas.  However, mounting evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine has pushed the commission to propose that coal be added to a 5th package of sanctions against Moscow.  "These atrocities can not and will not be left unanswered. The perpetrators of these heinous crimes must not go unpunished," von der Leyen added.  She continued: "Clearly, in view of events, we need to increase our pressure further."  The new set of measures will be discussed by European ambassadors tomorrow.  Final approval of the sanctions won't happen until after the talks.

EU proposes ban on Russian coal, working on oil sanctions

The US stopped the Russian gov from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600M from reserves held at US banks, in a move meant to ratchet up pressure on Moscow & eat into its holdings of $s. placeholder Under sanctions put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at US financial institutions were frozen.  But the Treasury Dept had been allowing the Russian gov to use those funds to make coupon payments on $-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis.  Yesterday, as the largest of the payments came due, including a $552M principal payment on a maturing bond, the US gov decided to cut off Moscow's access to the frozen funds, according to a Treasury spokesperson.  An $84M coupon payment was also due yesterday on a 2042 sovereign $ bond.  The move was meant to force Moscow to make the difficult decision of whether it would use $s that it has access to for payments on its debt or for other purposes, including supporting its war effort, the spokesperson said.  Russia faces a historic default if it chooses to not do so.  "Russia must choose between draining remaining valuable dollar reserves or new revenue coming in, or default," the spokesperson added.

US blocks Russian debt payments in bid to raise pressure on Moscow

Treasury yields rose as investors monitor the next moves from the Federal Reserve & continue to assess the likelihood of a recession.  The 10-year Treasury note yield jumped more than 11 basis points to 2.52%.  That move puts the benchmark rate back above its 2-year counterpart, which traded around 2.5%.  The 2-year had recently been trading above the 10-year triggering a yield curve inversion.  The yield on the 5-year US gov bond moved 9 basis points higher to 2.653% & the 30-year Treasury yield added about 8 basis points to 2.555%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  Today's moves came after Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who normally favors easy policy & low rates, said the central bank needs to move quickly to drive down inflation.  "Inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks," she said in prepared remarks.  "The Committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of inflation and inflation expectations indicate that such action is warranted."  Her remarks come as the bond market flashes signals of a potential recession.  5-year & 30-year Treasury yields inverted at the beginning of last week for the first time since 2006 & remained inverted today.  2-year & 10-year Treasury rates, which is the main part of the yield curve watched by investors, flipped on Thur for the first time since 2019 but reversed course today.  Yield curve inversions have historically occurred prior to recessions, as investors signal their doubts about the near-term health of the economy by selling out of short-dated bonds in favor of longer-dated debt.  There are concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive hiking of interest rates, along with rising inflation, could weigh on economic growth.

10-year Treasury yield rises above 2.5% after Fed's Brainard's comments

The dramatic increase in yields on Treasuries is scary for investors.  The inverted yield curve, which signals a recession is on the way, adds to heavy selling in Treasuries.  So far, the Dow has been holding up fairly well.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






No comments: