Friday, June 3, 2022

Markets slip as investors weigh rising prices versus a strong economy

Dow dropped 348 (near session lows), decliners over advancers about 3-1 & NAZ fell 304.  The MLP index continued little changed near 225 & the REIT index was off 5+ to the 436s.  Junk bond funds remained weak & Treasuries continued to be sold, driving yields higher.  Oil gained 2+ to the 119s & gold was off 18 to 1853 (more on both below).

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Ford (F) US sales fell just 4.5% in May from a year ago, a narrower decline than in recent months, as it continued to see white-hot demand for its latest vehicles amid tight supplies of new cars, trucks & SUVs.  Ford & other automakers are continuing to fight through supply-chain issues, including a global shortage of semiconductor chips, that has hampered new vehicle production around the world for over a year.  Its monthly US sales were down by over 10% in Apr & by more than 20% in Feb & Mar.  Ford said the company estimates that overall US new vehicle sales were down about 30% from a year ago in May, meaning that Ford likely gained market share.  Ongoing disruptions to Ford's manufacturing have led to tight inventories at its dealers.  In response, Ford has offered incentives to customers who are willing to place orders for their vehicles & wait for them to be built & delivered.  Almost ½ of Ford's retail sales in May came from customer orders placed earlier in the year.  With chip supplies still limited, Ford has been prioritizing production of its newest models, including the electric Mustang Mach-E crossover, the Bronco SUV & the small Maverick pickup, as well as its highly profitable mainstays, such as the F-Series pickups & the large Ford & Lincoln SUVs.  Sales of Ford's F-Series pickups, an important driver of company's profits, were up 6.9% in May from a year ago.  Deliveries of the Mustang Mach-E were more than double the model's year-ago total.  In Jan-May, Ford has sold 763K vehicles in the UK, down 13.3% from the same period in 2021.  The stock fell 39¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

Ford’s U.S. sales fell just 4.5% in May amid hot demand for EVs and pickups

There is more bad news for US motorists. The national average retail price for regular gasoline jumped 4¢ to $4.71 per gallon – yet another record high.  "After several weeks of soaring gas prices, last week saw prices nationally slow down ahead of Memorial Day, but I’m afraid the good news ends there," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said.  "As a result of the continued decline in gasoline inventories in recent weeks, wholesale gas prices surged last week, which will likely boost prices at the pump in short order."  It's becoming even more likely that the national average will reach $5 per gallon & that could hit as soon as Jun 17, De Haan projected.  And that's not even the worst of it.  Other forecast call for prices to surge another 37% by Aug hitting a $6.20 per gallon national average.  Currently, prices are already 52¢ higher than a month ago & $1.67 higher than a year ago.  The average price for gas has already topped $4 a gallon in every state, however, California is the only state where the average price has reached $6.21.

Gas prices on the road to $5 nationwide very soon

Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is building warehouses with a high-tech spin in hopes of delivering items to customers more quickly & growing its online business.  The retailer plans to build 4 new fulfillment centers that use automation to pack 4 ship online orders more efficiently, with the first location opening this summer in Illinois.  For customers, the new warehouses will mean next-day or 2-day delivery could be more common for items including cereal & T-shirts.  With more of its sales coming from its website in recent years, it already has 31 facilities that prepare online ordersMore than 3500 of its stores, 75% of its locations, also fulfill online orders.  At its existing fulfillment centers, employees can walk 9 miles or more a day to pluck items off shelves & lug them back to areas for packaging, said Michael Prince, VP of supply chain innovation & automation.  That won’t be necessary at the new warehouses, where an automated system will retrieve items from an expanded storage space & shuttle it to an area where an employee packs it in a box, which will be custom made to fit the order’s measurements.  WMT will hire 4K people to work at the new facilities.  The current starting pay at existing warehouses is $16-28 per hour & wages at the new ones will be at the higher end of that range.  The stock fell 2.19.
If you would like to learn more about WMT click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

Walmart to open high-tech fulfillment centers to ship online orders faster

Gold books a weekly loss, following 2 straight weeks of gain.  Gold futures finished lower to book a weekly loss, as the $ gained versus major rivals after a stronger-than-expected rise in US nonfarm payrolls reinforced expectations for higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve in coming months.  Gold for Aug shed $21 (1.1%) to settle at $1850 an ounce, its sharpest daily percentage drop since May 12.  For the week, the yellow metal booked a 0.3% drop, after 2 straight weeks or gains, & despite closing yesterday at its highest since May 6.  The US economy added 390K jobs in May, versus expectations for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 328K.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% versus expectations for a tick down to 3.5%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% versus forecasts for a 0.4% rise.  Analysts said gold may continue to struggle as expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes underpin the $, with the ICE US Dollar Index last month trading around a 20-year high.  A stronger $ is seen as a headwind for commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to user of other currencies.  The index rose 0.3% today.

Gold books worst day in three weeks as U.S. jobs data dulls demand

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Pres Loretta Mester said she is looking for "compelling" evidence that inflation has peaked before reducing the pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes from what policymakers say are likely to be half-point increments in both Jun & Jul.  At the subsequent Fed meeting in Sep, "if I don't see compelling evidence, then I could easily be a 50 basis point in that meeting as well," Mester said .

Fed's Mester: Could 'Easily' See 50 Bps Rate Hike in Sept, Too

Oil futures end higher, post weekly gain as traders shrug off OPEC+ output boost.  Gasoline futures extended a run into record territory today, while oil futures logged strong weekly gains a day after traders shook off a decision by OPEC+ to raise output by larger increments in Jul & Aug.  The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for Jul added $1.61 to settle at $116.87 a barrel.  Oil has been supported this week by China's moves to ease a weekslong lockdown in Shanghai, a positive for crude demand.  Meanwhile, gov data yesterday showed US oil & product inventories fell sharply last week, reflecting in part strong implied demand for gasoline as summer driving season got under way.  OPEC+ agreed yesterday to raise output by 638K barrels a day in Jul & Aug, exceeding the 432K barrel-a-day increments previously penciled in by the group.  While the move could help fill the gap left by Russian crude exports targeted by embargoes & sanctions in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine, it isn't seen as enough to fully offset the expected lost barrels.  Moreover, they noted that OPEC+ has already fallen short on previous, smaller production boosts.  Oil-field services firm Baker Hughes said the number of US oil rigs was unchanged this week at 574, while gas rigs were unchanged at 151 & miscellaneous rigs steady at 2.

Gasoline futures end at a record as oil shakes off OPEC+ output increase

After a strong start this week, Dow ended down 300.  High inflation, the fear of rising interest rates & a struggling economy are spooking investors.

Dow Jones Industrials









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