Dow shot up 456, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ zoomed 460. The MLP index gained 2+ to the 274s & the REIT index was up 1 to 380. Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were about even, keeping yields essentially flat. Oil rose fractionally to the mid 78s & gold slid 1 to 2033 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Mortgage rates continued their upward trend this week, nearing 7% & piling on the unaffordability crisis that threatens to dampen the typical spring buying frenzy. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.90% this week, up from 6.77% last week & the average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.50% a year ago. The rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage also increased, averaging 6.29% after coming in last week at 6.12%. One year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 5.76%. "Historically, the combination of a vibrant economy and modestly higher rates did not meaningfully impact the housing market," Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said. "The current cycle is different than historical norms, as housing affordability is so low that good economic news equates to bad news for homebuyers, who are sensitive to even minor shifts in affordability." Buying activity tends to pick up in the spring following slower winter months, but elevated rates & sky-high home prices have stalled the housing market as more would-be buyers & sellers are priced out or opting not to move. "Recent surges in new listing activities suggested that we might have a busy spring ahead," said Realtor.com economist Jaiyi Xu. "However, the recent increase in mortgage rates has the potential to slow the market by disrupting the plans of many buyers, especially in a market where a significant number of consumers are anticipating lower mortgage rates, not higher." Robert Frick, a corp economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says rates are climbing because the futures markets have temporarily lost faith in the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate soon, & in a "higher for longer" scenario that means higher mortgage rates, too. "But market expectations can turn on a dime, and are always just one Fed meeting or data drop away from shifting," Frick added. "We saw that mortgage rates around 7% in January actually boosted existing home sales, and if rates fall below 6% this year, as many forecast, home sales volume should accelerate."
Moderna (MRNA) posted a surprise quarterly profit, boosted by deferred revenue & cost cuts, even as it saw slumping sales from its Covid vaccine, its only marketable product. The
results cap a rocky year for the biotech company & other Covid
vaccine makers, which all saw revenue plunge as the world continued to
emerge from the pandemic & relied less on protective shots &
treatments. MRNA posted EPS of 55¢ for
the 4th qtr which compares with EPS of
$3.61, reported for the year-ago period. The biotech
company booked 4th-qtr sales of $2.8B, with revenue from
its Covid shot dropping 43% from the same period a year ago. That
decline was primarily driven by lower vaccine volume, but was partially
offset by a higher average selling price of the jab. The company recorded $600M in
deferred revenue during the qtr related to its work with
Gavi, a nongovernmental global vaccine organization that coordinated a
global shot distribution program. But CFO Jamey Mock said that the deferred revenue is “kind of a nonevent” & isn't “really the best way to beat earnings.” He
noted that MRNA is more excited about its lower-than-expected cost
of sales, which he called one of the main reasons why company
earnings came in above what some was expected. Deferred revenue boosted full-year Covid vaccine sales to $6.7B, an amount the company first unveiled in Jan. It booked $18B in revenue in 2022 & expects sales from the shot to drop even further in 2024. The
company noted that the vaccine won 48% of the US Covid vaccine market
share last year, up from the 37% it captured in 2022. MRNA
reiterated its full-year 2024 sales guidance of roughly $4B. That forecast includes revenue from its vaccine against respiratory
syncytial virus, or RSV, which could win Food & Drug
Administration approval on May 12. The stock rose 11.85 (14%).
Moderna stock pops 15% after company posts surprise profit even as Covid vaccine sales fall
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits fell to its lowest level in 5 weeks, even as more high-profile companies announce layoffs. Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 12K to 201K last week, the Labor Dept reported. The 4-week average of claims, a less volatile measure, fell by 3K to 215K, down from 218K the previous week. Weekly unemployment claims are broadly viewed as representative of the number of US layoffs in a given week. They have remained at historically low levels in recent years, despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate 11 times beginning in Mar of 2022 in an effort to bring down the 4-decade high inflation that took hold after the economy roared back from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. Many economists expected the rapid rate hikes to weaken the labor market & potentially tip the country into recession, but it hasn't happened. Jobs have remained plentiful & the economy has held up better than forecast thanks to strong consumer spending. Though layoffs remain at low levels, there has been an uptick in job cuts recently across technology & media. In total, 1.86M Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the latest week, a decrease of 27K from the previous week.
Applications for US jobless benefits fall again as labor market powers on
Gold prices fell from a near 2-week high after jobless claims data indicated a strong economy, while investors awaited further economic data for guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance. Spot gold lost 2 to $2022 after hitting its highest since Feb 9 of $2034 earlier in the session. Gold futures settled $4 lower to $2030. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth likely remained solid in Feb.
Gold slips after US data signals resilient economy
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher after US oil inventories less than expected. WTI crude for Apr closed up 70¢ to settle at $78.61 per barrel, while Apr Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up 57¢ to $83.60. Prices fell early after the the American Petroleum Institute reported US oil inventories rose by 7.2M barrels last week, above the 4.3M barrel estimate. However official data from the Energy Information Administration showed a rise of only 3.5M barrel, while gasoline & distillate inventories dropped. Prices are also being supported by geopolitical risk, after Yemen's Houthi militants promised to increase attacks on Red Sea shipping & said they also now have submarine weapons.WTI Crude Oil Closes Higher as US Inventories Rise Less than Expected
The bulls are happy with popular stock averages at record levels. But the # of advancers are not strongly ahead of the decliners which is expected when stocks surge. A nagging problem is that interest rates remain high & could be around these levels for several months, if not longer. For the time being stockholders are feeling good,Dow Jones Industrials
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