Markets held near records after Powell gave testimony

Dow dropped 52, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was up 25.  The MLP index remained near 291 & the REIT index hardly budged in the 378s.  Junk bond funds crawler higher & Treasuries continued to be sold which took yields a little higher.  Oil eased fractionally lower to the 81s & gold rose 7 to 2370 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

The US job market is slowly stabilizing, as shown by the 206K jobs added in Jun, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The industries driving this growth include gov, health care, social assistance & construction.  Although more jobs were added, unemployment did increase, but barely, to 4.1%.  Last month, the unemployment rate sat at 4%, so the increase was minimal month to month.  The unemployment rate is currently higher than it was last year, when the jobless rate was 3.6%.  Gov jobs led the charge for job growth, adding 70K jobs in Jun.  This is much higher than the average monthly gain of 49K gov jobs the US has seen in the last 12 months.  Local govs & state govs added the most jobs over all at 34K & 26K respectively.  The health care industry also added a substantial number of jobs at 49K.  However, this is lower than the average monthly gain of 64K seen in the last year.  Hospitals & ambulatory services added the most jobs in the industry, both increasing by 22K.  Another public service sector, social assistance, added 34K jobs in Jun, mostly in individual family services.  This addition is also larger than the average for the last 12 months, which was 22K additional jobs.  Construction jobs grew in Jun as well, with 27K new jobs.  The industries that lost jobs were retail, dropping by 9K positions & furniture retailers also lost about 6K jobs.  Wages for many industries are up across the board, on average.  Over the last year, hourly wages have risen by 3.9%.  The general consumer outlook for the economy is back on the rise after months of decline. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in May to 102, up from 97.5.  A score of over 100 tends to signal a strong economy.  The Present Situation Index, which measures consumer opinions on current business market conditions, also increased.  The index rose to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in Apr, indicating that there's a more positive view of the current labor market.  "Consumers' assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month.  However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers' overall assessment of the present situation," Dana M Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board said.  "Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were 'hard to get,' which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were 'plentiful.' Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index," Peterson added.  While the economic outlook is generally positive these days, the possibility of a recession still remains a major concern for many consumers.

Economic optimism rises as U.S. job market adds 206,000 jobs

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, delivered more commercial jets in Jun than in any other month this year, but the total of 44 planes represented a 27% drop on an annual basis amid a whirlwind of legal & production challenges.  The company has pledged to expand production by the end of the year, after wrestling with supply chain snags & operating a slower assembly line since a Jan 5 mid-air blowout of a door plug on a 737 MAX 9 jet that heightened regulatory scrutiny.  On Sun, the Justice Dept said BA agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge linked to 2 737 MAX fatal crashes in 2018 & 2019, raising questions about the planemaker's ability to secure gov contracts.  The company handed over 5 777 freighters, including 2 of the jets to Air China, confirming a report that widebody deliveries to China have resumed after being halted this spring due to a Chinese regulatory review.  BA also reported 11 orders in Jun for 777 freighters, the 3rd-highest month ever for the model, out of a total of 14 gross orders for the month.  After adjustments to reflect the backlog, BA reported adjusted net orders for the month of a negative 104.  That brought the gross order total so far this year to 156.  After removing cancellations & conversions, BA posted a net total of 115 orders since the start of 2024.  Following further accounting adjustments, BA reported adjusted net orders of 26 airplanes so far this year.  BA delivered 175 planes YTD, trailing its European rival Airbus which delivered 323 airplanes in the first ½.  The world's largest planemaker also said this week that it had won 327 gross orders in the first 6 months of 2024, or a net total of 310 after cancellations.  The stock dropped 2.57.

Boeing deliveries drop 27% in June year-on-year

House Dems convened at their national party headquarters in DC for a pivotal closed-door meeting, as members weigh whether to continue backing Pres Biden's reelection bid or seek his withdrawal from the race.  Lawmakers had no access to their phones during the meeting, which marked the first time the full caucus has assembled since Biden's disastrous debate against former Pres's Trump in Jun sparked a full-blown campaign crisis.  Many members refused to answer questions as they trickled out of the building after the meeting today.  "I promised I wouldn't talk at all about what was said," Rep Mike Quigley said.  When a reporter asked Rep Steve Cohen if Dems were on the same page, Cohen replied, "No ... we're not even in the same book."  Cohen also said that some members in the caucus meeting said that Biden should withdraw.  A spokesman for Cohen did not immediately respond to a  request to confirm that comment.  Biden's feeble, raspy showing in the debate set off panic among Dems, prompting some top donors, pundits & allies to openly urge Biden, 81, to abandon his bid for another 4 years in office.  That growing chorus includes at least 8 sitting House Dems.  Rep Jerry Nadler, who also called on Biden to drop out, said that he now backs the incumbent.  "I'm fully supportive of him. I plan to campaign for him. And it's essential that he wins," Nadler said.  But Rep Lori Trahan expressed deep reservations about Biden's continued candidacy.  "Since the debate, I have met with fellow Biden voters in Massachusetts who have real concerns about the President's ability to beat Donald Trump. I share those concerns," Trahan, the co-chair of the Dem Policy & Communications Committee, said.  "While President Biden has made clear he feels he is the best candidate to win this election, nothing that has happened over the past twelve days suggests that voters see things the same way," Trahan said.  "A second Trump presidency will do irreparable damage to women and to our country, and President Biden must act with urgency to restore Americans' confidence so we win in November."

Democrats hold pivotal meetings on Biden, as divisions deepen after Trump debate

Gold prices eked out gains despite a stronger $ & higher bond yields, as investors looked forward to the US Jun inflation data due later this week for more clarity on the US interest rate path.  Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2363 per ounce after dropping more than 1% in the previous session.  US gold futures settled about 0.2% higher to $2367.  The $ was up about 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched higher.  There's an expectation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to start cutting rates as early as Sep, which is contributing positively to current market conditions.  Recent US economic data pointed to a slackening labor market, cementing expectations that the central bank is on course to start cutting interest rates soon.  Traders currently see about a 75% chance of a rate cut in Sep, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.  Non-yielding bullion's appeal tends to grow when interest rates are lower.

Gold ticks higher with focus on US inflation data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a 3rd-straight session as demand concerns continue while Hurricane Beryl passed over the Texas refining hub with little damage to refineries & ports.  WTI crude oil for Aug closed down 92¢ to settle at $81.41 per barrel, while Sepr Brent crude was last seen down 98¢ to $84.77.  The drop comes after Beryl hit the Houston area at Category 1 strength.  While refineries & ports were shut as the storm passed over, there was little damage to the region's cluster of refineries, with a report that most of the facilities have begun restarting operations.  The shutdowns had little affect on oil or refined product pricing.  Demand concerns continue despite last week's 12.2M barrel fall in US oil inventories.  Even with the bullish drop, the refining sector remains weak, with a warning due to weak refining margins & the potential scaling back of refining operations due to weak demand.

WTI Crude Oil Weakens Again as Beryl Leaves Texas Refineries Undamaged

There was a modest midday rally, but that did not last.  The rally in the stock market is tired & all the confusion by the Dems on the presidential race is keeping some stock buyers on the sidelines.  Many are wondering who is in charge & who is making decisions affecting the economy.  Also, the future of rate cuts is not clear to everybody.