Sunday, November 3, 2024

Markets rebound as traders shrug off downbeat jobs data

Dow remained higher, up 288, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ rose 144.  The MLP index gave back 1+ to the 279s & the REIT index was off 4+ to the 417s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries selling drove yields higher.  Oil after falling midday, finished up chump change above 69 & gold was off 1 to 2747 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, beat 3rd-qtr earnings expectations, as the oil major reached its highest liquids production level in more than 4 decades.  “This quarter is one of the best third quarters we’ve had in the past decade,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods said.  “In the upstream, we see record volumes coming from our advantaged assets like Guyana and the Permian.”  The oil major booked EPS of $1.92, compared with $2.25, in the year-ago period.  Profits have declined as refining margins & natural gas prices have pulled back from historically high levels in 2023.  Revenue fell less than 1% to $90B.  The company returned $9.8B to shareholders in the qtr & increased its 4th-qtr div to 99¢.  It has reached its highest production level in more than 40 years at 3.2M barrels per day.  The stock fell 1.80.

Exxon beats earnings estimates, increases fourth-quarter dividend

Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, beat 3rd-qtr earnings & revenue expectations, returning a record amount of cash to shareholders.  Quarterly profit, however, declined substantially compared with the year-ago period due to lower margins on refined product sales, lower prices & the absence of favorable tax times.  CVX is aiming to streamline its portfolio, with asset sales in Canada, Congo & Alaska expected to close in the 4th qtr of 2024. The company is also targeting $2-3B in cost reductions from 2024 thru the end of 2026.  EPS was $2.48, down 31% from $3.48n the 3rd qtr of 2023.  When adjusted for foreign currency impacts, the company reported EPS of $2.51, solidly topping expectations for the qtr.  Revenue was $50.7B, also beating expectations but declining 6% from the $54.1B reported in the 3rd qtr last year.  The oil major returned a record $7.7B to shareholders in the qtr, including $4.7B in share buybacks & $2.9B in divs.  CVX produced 3.36M oil-equivalent barrels per day in the qtr, a 7% increase over the 3rd qtr of 2023, driven by record output in the Permian Basin.  “Production was our highest third quarter ever in the history of the company,”  CEO Mike Wirth said  The stock rose 4.22.

Chevron beats earnings expectations, returns more than $7 billion to shareholders

A closely watched index that measures US manufacturing activity fell to 46.5 in Oct from 47.2 in the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).  This is the 7th straight month below the 50 threshold for growth & the lowest reading since Jul 2023.  The forecast called for the index to inch up to 47.6% in Oct from 47.2% in the prior month.  New orders for factory goods rose 1.0 to 47.1% in Oct.  New orders have fallen in 25 out of the past 26 months.  Exports orders contracted moderately in Oct.  Production dipped 3.6 points to 46.2% & employment shrunk in Oct, but at a slower rate.  The prices paid index jumped to 54.8% from 48.3%.  The manufacturing sector remains sluggish, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM's factory survey.  Recent readings were consistent with a slowdown & remain far away from recessionary readings, he added.  At the same time, a pickup was unlikely until 2025, he continued.

ISM factory index drops, marking 7th straight month below growth

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2736 per ounce.  Prices fell 1.5% yesterday as some traders took profit after bullion hit a record high of $2790.  US gold futures settled largely steady at 2749.  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12K jobs last month, the smallest gain since Dec 2020, affected by disruptions from hurricanes & strikes by aerospace factory workers. The $ erased earlier losses & gained 0.4%, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also rebounded from an earlier drop, making non-yielding gold less appealing.

Gold edges lower as U.S. dollar, yields rise

WTI & Brent oil still end lower for the week.  Oil futures finished, finding support after a news reports that Iran may be planning another major strike on Israel, which would continue a spiral of retaliatory actions between the 2 countries that could threaten crude flows from the Middle East.  Prices for US & global benchmark crude, however, pared back some of their earlier gains & held on to a loss for the week, after a drop to their lowest settlement in 7 weeks on Tues as traders breathed a brief sigh of relief that a retaliatory strike by Israel had spared Iran's oil facilities & infrastructure last weekend.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec rose 23¢ to settle at $69.49 a barrel.  Prices based on the front month ended down 3.2% for the week after they had posted a monthly gain of 1.6% for Oct.  Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 29¢ (0.4%) to $73.10 a barre, losing nearly 3.4% for the week.  Axios, citing 2 unnamed Israeli sources, reported late that Israeli intelligence had suggested Iran is planning a major retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq, perhaps as early as next week before the US presidential election.

Oil prices lifted by report Iran may be planning another major strike on Israel

Stocks had a comeback as investors welcomed a big miss in the monthly jobs report.  Today's economic reports are the last major economic data before the Federal Reserve's next policy decision on Nov 7.  Market expectations for that meeting moved little in its wake, with traders pricing in about 99% odds of a qtr-point rate cut at the Fed meeting next week.  For a wild week, Dow slid back a modest 164.        42,114   42,049    -164

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