Markets rise after jobs report and Powell's speech

Dow finished up 222 in choppy trading, advancers over decliners about 4-3 & NAZ went up 126.  The MLP index rebounded 6+ to the 316s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 413s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold which raised yields.  Oil gained about 1 to the  67s & gold gave back 13 to 2913 (more on both).

Dow Jones Industrials

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Pres John Williams said that so far there's no evidence that inflation expectations are starting to run into any form of trouble.  Based on recent data, “there is no sign of inflation expectations becoming unmoored at any forecast horizon relative to the pre-pandemic period,” Williams said in the text of remarks.  Williams, who spoke earlier this week in comments that highlighted no near-term need to change the current setting of monetary policy in an environment where trade tariffs may add to future inflation, did not comment on the monetary policy & economic outlook.  His comments came in reference to a paper presented at the conference.  Looking at the data, “a striking feature of these expectations is that they have fully returned to levels that prevailed between mid-2013 and mid-2016, before inflation expectations drifted downward during the extended low inflation experience prior to the pandemic.”  Fed officials believe the projected path of inflation exerts a strong influence on where current levels of price pressures stand.  Some recent data has been pointing to a rise in expected inflation amid the Trump administration's efforts to impose huge tariffs, import taxes that will largely be paid by Americans, that most economists expect will push inflation higher.  That said, expected inflation tracked by the New York Fed has thus far been muted.

Fed's Williams: Data points to stable inflation expectations

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank can wait to see how Pres Trump's aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.  With markets nervous over Trump's proposals for tariffs & other issues, Powell reiterated statements he & his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.  The White House “is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” he said.  “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”  Noting that “uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high” Powell said the Fed is “focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”  The comments seem at least somewhat at odds with growing market expectations for interest rate cuts this year.  As markets have been roiled by Trump's shifting positions on his agenda, specifically his tariff plans, traders have priced in the equivalent of 3 qtr percentage point reductions by the end of the year, starting in Jun.  However, his comments indicate that the Fed will be in a wait-&-see mode before mapping out further policy easing.  “Policy is not on a preset course,” he continued.  “Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”  In his assessment, Powell also spoke in mostly positive terms about the macro environment, saying the US is in “a good place” with a “solid labor market” & inflation moving back to target.  However, he did note that recent sentiment surveys showed misgivings about the path of inflation, largely a product of the Trump tariff talk.  The Fed's preferred gauge showed 12-month inflation running at a 2.5% rate (2.6% when excluding food & energy).  “The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue,” Powell said.  Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who was not at the forum, said in a speech today that she sees “important upside risks for inflation” & added that “it could be appropriate to continue holding the policy rate at its current level for some time.”  “Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery,” Powell said.

Powell says central bank awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before next move

Apple (AAPL), a Dow stock, confirmed that it's delaying the release of a new AI-infused Siri digital assistant, saying the company now expects to roll out the software sometime “in the coming year.”  The effort will give Siri “more awareness of your personal context, as well as the ability to take action for you within and across your apps,” the iPhone maker said.  “It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features.”  A report on Feb 14 that AAPL was struggling to finish the new capabilities, which were first touted last Jun at the company's Worldwide Developers Conference ( WWDC).  At the time, the company was aiming for a May debut, a postponement from earlier plans.  The new capabilities include Personal Context, a feature that lets Siri tap into user data to help with queries, & App Intents, a mechanism for more precisely controlling applications & features across its operating systems.  When AAPL announced the features at WWDC, it didn't provide an arrival date for the Siri upgrade.  Within the company, though, the plan was to include the new technology in iOS 18.4, which comes out in Apr.  The company's artificial intelligence team has been dealing with broader challenges, including leadership concerns & engineering problems.  The stock rose 3.74.

Apple Confirms Delay of AI-Infused, Personalized Siri Assistant

Gold prices edged up, poised for a weekly gain on safe-haven inflows & a US jobs report that showed weaker-than-expected job growth in Feb, suggesting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.  Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2918 an ounce.  Bullion has gained more than 2% so far this week, as Pres Trump's ever-changing tariff policies fueled uncertainty.  US gold futures were steady at $2925.  The US dollar index was on track for its worst weekly performance since Nov 4, making $-priced bullion cheaper for foreign buyers.  The weaker-than-expected number gave gold a little lift & the weaker $ for the week helped.  A Labor Dept report showed the US economy added 151K jobs in Feb, compared with a gain of 160K expected, while the unemployment rate was at 4.1% compared with expectations of 4%.

Gold Heads For Weekly Gain On Safe-Haven Demand, Slow US Jobs Growth

Oil prices were up but retreated from session highs after Pres Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine.  Trump said in a post that  he was "strongly considering" sanctions on Russian banks & tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine.  Brent crude futures were up $1.10 (1.6%), to $70.56 a barrel & US West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.06 (1.6%) at $67.42.  The  markets has been overwhelmed by Russia news.  For the week, Brent was down 3.8%, its biggest weekly decline since the week of Nov 11.  WTI is set to finish as much as 3.6% down for its biggest weekly drop since the week of Jan 21.  Brent prices fell to their lowest since Dec 2021 on Wed after US crude inventories rose and OPEC+ announced its decision to increase output quotas.

Oil up, but off highs as Trump warns new Russia sanctions possible

Stocks wavered after the crucial monthly jobs report amid market uncertainty driven by Pres Trump's volatile trade policy.  Downbeat economic data has boosted bets on interest rate cuts this year.  Dow gave back 1039 last week.