Monday, September 22, 2008

Friday's gains lost!

A sense of reality taking over investors gave sellers the upper hand today. Dow was down 373, decliners over advancers 4-1 and NAZ was down 95 with stocks ending at the lows for the day. Banks sold off big time on doubts about the new rules for financials & strength of the dollar.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value..277.82 --- Change..(25.75) ---- % Change..(8.4)%

Meanwhile, oil & gold had enormous gains:


CLV08.NYMCrude Oil Oct 08 --
122.77--- Up 18.22 (17.4%)



ZGU08.CBTGold 100 oz. Sep 08---904.00---
Up 46.40 (5.4%)



Bailout anxiety is a new term which overhangs all markets. That is the thought that the extra debt Treasury will be taking on will depreciate the dollar. There has even been talk of it causing a reduction in the supreme quality rating of US debt. One additional item of confusion for stock markets to absorb!

The Alerian MLP index settled back 2 after the strong day on Fri. But the Dow Jones REIT Index retreated a very large 23 to 245 on gloominess with the financials. Much of the strength in commodities came from sharp sell-off in the dollar. The Euro is back up to $1.49 (up about 12¢ in just the last couple of weeks):

Dollar Slides Most Since Euro's 1999 Debut on U.S. Budget Deficit Concern

Congress is trying to work out differences with Treasury on the $700B (whatever?) new debt the Treasury will be taking on. They have to arrive at a compromise, but details are still being worked out:

Paulson, Lawmakers Narrow Differences on $700 Billion Bailout, Frank Says

Once again we're back it a situation where confusion rules. That'll take the wind out of any sails. There is a lot of talk about the "blank check" or the idea that hundreds of $B will be used without proper controls. Being in the middle of a close presidential is not helping. These scary thoughts permeate markets & will continue dragging down stocks until there is clarity. Dow gains 800+ in just a little over 1 day of trading followed by ½ the gains lost on the next day says the market have a lot to work out. The VIX (volatility index) was up 2 to almost 34, in very, very high territory.

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