Monday, January 11, 2010

Sideways markets ahead of Alcoa earnings

Stocks were little changed. Dow was down 10, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 while NAZ dropped 14 off its high (reached before just prior to Lehman's collapse). Banks were higher, the Financial Index gained almost 1, on recognition of lagging performance by bank stocks (see below).


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
205.96
Change
0.87
% Change
0.4%


On a quiet day, the MLP index is up pocket change in the 294s while the REIT rose 1+. Junk bond funds remain hot, finding plenty of buyers causing their yields to decline further. Treasuries are also doing little, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was up 1 basis point to 3.82%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks









China oil imports rose 14% last year to a record high in Dec, part of a 56% surge in overall imports last month. Their cold winter is keeping demand high. As a result traders brushed off the disappointing US jobless report, taking oil to $83. Gold also rose helped by a weaker dollar. Gold has been climbing 50+ off the 1100 floor. As a reminder, 1200+ was it previous (record) high.

CLG10.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 10...82.99...Up 0.24
.......(0.3%)

GCF10.CMX...Gold Jan 10...1,153.60 ...Up 15.40
.......(1.4%)


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photo: Bloomberg



Analysts expect earnings for financial companies to rise 120% in Q4 & forecast income should triple in 2010. Based on these estimates, banks are selling at a 15% discount to the S&P 500 index. However after having been burned badly in the last 2 years, money managers hesitate about putting more money into bank stocks. Financial companies are the least-favored equity group.

Bank Profits Tripling Leaves Stocks Cheapest With 15% Discount to S&P 500


S&P Financial Index - 1 year










Not much happening as traders await Alcoa's (AA), Dow stock, to kick off earnings season. AA earnings will give a glimpse into the strength of the economic recovery.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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