Friday, February 5, 2010

Markets slip after a below par jobs report

Asian & European stock markets sold off in anticipation of the jobs report. When the report came in, the data was mixed. Dow opened down & continued lower taking it below the magic 10K support level. Dow is down 62, decliners over advancers 5-2 but NAZ fell a more modest 3. Chances are traders will want to sell ahead of the weekend, keeping selling pressure on stock markets for the rest of the day. Banks began the day higher but selling has taken the Financial Index into the red, further below the important 190 support level which had for 6 months.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
185.25
Change
-0.23
% Change
-0.1%


MLPs have returned to the post Lehman days. The Alerian MLP Index dropped another 6+ to the 273s. It was just a couple of weeks ago it hit 300 with sights on its all time high of 342 reached in 2007. REITs rallied, lifting the index up 2. Junk bond funds were hit with selling, some off 10% from Jan highs. Treasuries were higher with modest gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 2 basis points to 3.59%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks









Oil & gold are soft along with the stock markets.

CLH10.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 10...73.04 ...Down 0.10
.......(0.1%)


GCG10.CMX...Gold Feb 10...1,061.40 ...Down 1.00
........(0.1%)


Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here











Photo: Bloomberg



Payrolls unexpectedly fell in Jan & the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a 5-month low. The Labor Dept reported the economy shed only 20K jobs after losing 150K jobs in Dec & Nov was revised to a gain of 64K, up from 4K. Annual benchmark revisions showed the economy has purged 8.4M jobs since the start of the recession in Dec 2007. Analysts had forecasts of payrolls gaining 5K & the unemployment rate edging up to 10.1%. This shows that a slow improvement in the labor market with some encouraging signs, but it wasn't quite good enough to push into positive territory. This economy is moving slowly & it will take time for companies to turn around.

Jobless Rate in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls to 9.7%; Payrolls Drop by 20,000


Unemployment rate - 1 year






Simon Property (SPG), the largest shopping mall operator, reported Q4 results fell, hurt partly by an impairment charge. Funds from operations (FFO), a widely used gauge of real estate operating performance, fell 10% to $1.40 per share from $1.86 last year. Excluding impairment charges, FFO totaled $1.66 beating expectations of $1.52. Revenue was essentially even at $1.03B. 92.1% of its regional malls were occupied, comparable to a 92.4% occupancy rate last year. 98% of its premium outlet centers were occupied compared to 98.9% last year. The stock rose 3.18 to 72.63, helping the REIT index.

Simon Property Climbs After Profit Beats Estimates


Simon Property --- 2 years








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The mediocre jobs reports was generally in line with expectations, good but not great. With all the numbers it contains something for everybody, but not good enough to bring back buyers. The big picture is the recovery is just lumbering along, not what stock markets like to hear.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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