Dreary consumer confidence data sinks stocks

Dow dropped 78, declines over advancers 5-2 & NAS fell 27 in response to discouraging readings on consumer confidence. Selling dragged down bank stocks reversing a recent run up off lows for the Financial Index.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 195.01

Change -1.81

% Change -0.9%

The Alerian MLP Index slipped 1+ back to 290s (little changed in the last 5 days). The REIT index fell almost 1 but junk bond funds gained. There was buying of Treasuries on the gloomy consumer confidence reading. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 7 basis points to 3.73% (ahead of the PM auction of notes).

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil was not able to hold 80, gold was also lower (but at least remained above the 1100 support level).

CLJ10.NYM

...Crude Oil Apr 10

...78.41

... 1.90 .......(2.4%)

Gold

___1,103.70

___-9.40___

-0.8%

OIL (ETF) --- YTD




GLD (ETF) --- YTD




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Consumer confidence fell sharply in Feb on more pessimism about job prospects in the US. economy. The Conference Board reported the Consumer Confidence index sank 11 points to 46.0 (not shown in the graph below) from an upwardly revised 56.5 in Jan (the lowest reading since last Apr). Economists were looking for a slight drop to 55.5 from the previously reported level of 55.9 in Jan. In a healthy economy, the index average is about 95. The present situation index plunged to its lowest level in 27 years - to 19.4 from an upwardly revised 25.2 (again not shown in the graph). The percentage of consumers who said economic conditions are good dropped to 6.2% from 8.5%, while those who said conditions are bad climbed to 46.3% from 44.7%. The percentage who say jobs are plentiful dipped to 3.6%, while the percentage saying jobs are hard to get edged up to 47.7%.

•Consumer Confidence in U.S. Falls to 10-Month Low as Outlook for Jobs Dims


Consumer confidence - 1 year




Present Conditions - 1 year





Leading stores reported only so-so results. Home Depot (HD), Dow stock, was the only gainer after raising its div.

Sears Rises as Fourth-Quarter Sales Beat Estimates
Target’s Fourth-Quarter Profit Rises on Sales of Groceries
Home Depot Fourth-Quarter Adjusted EPS 24c, Est. 16c

• Macy's returns to 4Q profit, helped by lower costs- AP

Sears Holdings -=-- 1 year




Macys --- 1 year




Target --- 1 year




Home Depot --- 1 year








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Consumer confidence numbers provided more ammunition that the recovery (or whatever it's called) is not going well. My feeling is that auto sales numbers for Feb (due early next week) will be dismal with Toyota's troubles bleeding over to the competition & consumers not responding to recovery sentiment.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks