Thursday, April 22, 2010

Greek debt worries take markets lower

Dow is down 93 at session lows (just above 11K), decliners over advancers 2-1 (showing improvement over earlier figures) & NAZ fell 21 on weak earnings from key stocks. Banks are having a bad day, but the Financial Index is not far below its interim highs of last week.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
221.45
Change
-2.60
% Change
-1.6%


The Alerian MLP Index fell 1½ off its high to the 313s. REITs continue strong as the index gained a fraction in the 208s. Junk bond funds were mixed but have pulled back from their interim highs last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was down a smidgen, still at 3.74%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




Weak stock markets are bleeding thru to commodities. But oil remains in its 80-85 longer term trading zone.

CLM10.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 10...82.43 ...Down 1.25
.......(1.5%)


GCJ10.CMX...Gold Apr 10...1,133.80 ...Down 14.40
.......(1.3%)




Financially-stricken Greece had an even bigger budget deficit for 2009 than previously thought, at a time the country is considering whether to tap a bailout facility from the eurozone & the IMF. Greece's budget deficit in 2009 (as a percentage of economic output) was 13.6%, up from the previous estimate of 12.9% & nearly double the 7.7% in 2008. Greece's total gov debt as a proportion of GDP stands at a massive 115.1%, a burden so large that it could have trouble paying it over coming years even after a bailout this year. There are fears that the Greek figures may be even worse, citing "uncertainties" from figures related to social security funds & complex financial swap arrangements. Greece had its credit rating cut one grade to 4 grades above junk debt by Moody’s Investors Service, as the gov debt servicing costs surge.



Greece's Sovereign Credit Rating Is Cut One Level by Moody's on Debt Costs

Home sales rose more than expected in Mar, reversing 3 months of declines, as expiring gov incentives drew buyers. Sales of previously occupied homes rose 6.8% to an annual rate of 5.35M in Mar, the highest level since Dec. Sales had been expected to rise 5.2-5.28M. Results show the housing market is stabilizing after a devastating bust.The median sales price was $171K, up almost 4% from a month earlier & nearly unchanged from $170K in Mar 2009. The inventory of unsold homes was up 1.5% to 3.6M, an 8 month supply at the current sales pace. The broad based recovery is viewed as fairly good, but the true test will be whether the market can stand on its own after federal tax credits expire at the end of Apr. Foreclosure filings rose 16% in Q1 from a year earlier & bank seizures reached a record

Existing U.S. Home Sales Rise 6.8% as Buyers Take Advantage of Tax Credit


Home sales - 1 year




Homes on the market - 1 year




Foreclosures - 1 year





EBay (EBAY) & Qualcomm (QCOM) gave disappointing guidance despite decent earnings last qtr. Each is off more than 2.

Qualcomm falls on weaker-than-expected outlookat MarketWatch
EBay off as outlook spooks investorsat MarketWatch


eBay --- 2 years




Qualcomm --- 2 years















Photo: Bloomberg


Strong sales at PepsiCo (PEP), a Dividend Aristocrat, of snacks & drinks in developing markets helped Q1 profits rise 26%, beating analyst estimates. Sales of snacks & beverages posted double-digit gains in India & China, but beverage sales volume was soft in the US & Europe as shoppers reduced spending & switched to juices & teas. In Q1, PEP earned 89¢ per share, beating estimates of 75¢. Revenue climbed 13% to $9.37B, while the volume of products sold rose only 1%. But the stock dropped 1.33.

PepsiCo Profit Rises 26% After Bottler Purchases


PepsiCo --- 2 years





The Greek debt problems is very troubling. Latest headlines out of Greece are gloomy, reporting the yield on their 10-year bond shot up to 9% (a 12 year high). The € sold off again, to below $1.33 (barely above the low of $1.32 reached last month). Now the markets have to worry about what the pres will say in NYC about increased regulation for banks.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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