Thursday, April 8, 2010

Markets wander lower

Dow began weak & is now off 24, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 7. Nothing exciting going on in the markets so buyers are not rushing in. Banks are pretty much flat despite key Citigroup (C) execs are getting grilled in DC.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
220.07
Change
0.07
% Change
0.0%


The Alerian MLP Index dropped another 2 on more profit taking. So far nothing to be worried about, it's just riding on the fortunes of oil prices (also down for 2 straight days). The REIT index is up a few pennies. Junk bond funds are a little firmer despite growing anxieties about Greek debt. Treasuries rose a little as the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell almost 2 basis points to 3.85%. But that yield remains in high territory, not very far from the important 4% ceiling.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





After a 7 day winning streak, oil is giving back some of the gains. When oil is going over 90 is now a distant thought, but it still has upward bias. After doing well recently, gold is taking a rest today.

CLK10.NYM...Crude Oil May 10...85.20 ...Down 0.68
.......(0.8%)


GCJ10.CMX...Gold Apr 10...1,150.40 ...Down 1.90
.......(0.2%)














Photo: Bloomberg

First-time jobless claims increased 18K last week to 460K, worse than estimates of 435K. However, the seasonal adjustment for Easter can be difficult since the holiday occurs in different weeks each year. The 4 week average rose to 450K. These figures underscore the job market remains weak even as the economy recovers. On a more positive note, the number continuing to claim benefits for more than a week fell by 131K to 4.55M, the lowest level in 16 months. The graph shows that there has been little progress this year in improving the jobless claims figures. Jobs remain scarce even as the economy recovers.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased Heading Into Easter Holiday


Weekly jobless claims - 1 year





The European Central Bank tried to downplay mounting fears that Greece could default on its debt by insisting a support framework outlined of EU leaders last month was "workable." OK! But the backstop accord for Greece, including bilateral loans from willing eurozone countries & aid from the IMF, does not seem to have worked. The country's borrowing costs continue to shoot higher. The spread between the Greek & German 2-year bonds spiked by an eye popping 120 basis points as investors demanded more interest just to hold Greek debt. The equivalent difference between 10-year bond yields also widened to 440 basis points, its highest level since the € was introduced in 1999. Investors are fretting about the ability of the Greek gov to get a grip on its public finances. The chart below for its borrowing costs tells a sad story.

Greece Is Likely to Seek Rescue After EU's `Gamble' Fails, Economists Say


Greek borrowing costs - 1 year





This is another one of those days when little is accomplished in the markets. Actually the entire week has been in that mode. The jobless claims numbers are fuzzy, but the general trend is that there has been little improvement in 2010. Solving Greek problems looks like a never ending problem. And next week, earnings season starts. The Dow has drifted lower all week with worries about Q1 earnings reports & the 11K ceiling has held.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks











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