Thursday, June 14, 2012

Higher markets on hopes for another Bernanke Bailout

Stocks were bid up out of the gate & kept rising throughout the day.  Dow finished up 155 (near the highs), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 17.  The Financial Index rose 2+ to 191, the highest it's been since May 29.

The MLP index fell 1+ to 363 but the REIT index gained 3+ to the 251s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries slid back (see below).  Oil rose the most in more than 2 months on speculation the Federal Reserve (FED) will loosen monetary policy to spur growth & as OPEC members were asked to cut production that exceeds their current output ceiling.

AMJ (Alerian MLP tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.290%

U.S. 10-year

1.615%

CLN12.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 12...83.48 ...Up 0.86  (1.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The Treasury is borrowing 30-year money at the lowest rate on record after auctioning off 30-year bonds at a yield of 2.72%, the lowest rate ever.  This was the 2nd straight day the gov borrowed from investors at a record low rate.  Yesterday, the Treasury auctioned 10-year bonds at 1.62%.  Most Treasuries were little changed to lower in trading after today's auction.  Worries over the European debt crisis have stoked demand for US gov bonds.  But rising demand for bonds lowers their yields.  Today's auction raised $13B, the last of 3 auctions this week.  The amount is considerably below the $35B auction that was common 3 years ago.

Treasury sells 30-year bonds at a record low yield AP


Spain Yield Reaches Euro Record as Rating Cut Before Italy Sale

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Financial markets are far different in Spain where bonds fell, with 10-year yields rising to a euro-era record, after Moody’s cut the nation’s credit rating, citing its rising debt burden & weakening economy.  Spain’s securities extended this week’s decline after the nation requested as much as €100B ($126B) of aid for its banks last weekend & after Prime Minister Rajoy said he would “battle” the ECB for cheap loans to avoid a sovereign bailout.  Italy’s bonds rose after the nation raised its maximum target at a sale of €4.5B at an auction even as its borrowing costs surged.  Spain’s 10-year yield climbed 16 basis points to 6.92%, after rising to 6.998%, the highest since the the € was introduced in 1999.  The yield has jumped 70 basis points just this week.  The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds instead of similar-maturity bunds widened 16 basis points to 543 basis points after reaching 551 basis points, another €-era record.  Moody’s lowered Spain’s credit rating to Baa3, one step above junk, from A3 & put it on review for a further downgrade.  The request for aid from the EU to recapitalize its banking system adds to the debt load, Moody's said.


Apple IPad Demand Boosts Tablet Shipment Forecast

iPads in Seoul, South Korea
Photo:   Bloomberg

Worldwide shipments of tablets this year will be 107M units, up from an earlier projection of 106M IDC said.  Worldwide shipments should reach 142M next year & 222M by 2016.  Even as companies release new tablets running the Android operating system, from Google (GOOG), the iPad from Apple (AAPL) continues to dominate the market.  IDC predicts the iPad will account for 62% of global shipments this year, up from 58% last year.  AAPL’s share could rise even further if it introduces a smaller, less expensive tablet.  “Apple’s iPad shows few signs of slowing down,” Tom Mainelli, IDC’s research director of mobile connected devices, said.  “If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger.”  Shipments of tablets using Android will slip to 36.5%, from 38.7% last year, according to IDC.  The report highlights how consumers are increasingly turning to tablets for basic computing needs such as browsing the internet, checking e-mail & watching video, a trend that has affected the sales of traditional PC makers.  Last week, Yankee Group predicted tablet sales in the US will eclipse those of personal computers by 2015.  AAPL fell 63¢ in what is turning out to be a soggy qtr.

Apple IPad Demand Boosts Tablet Shipment Forecast, IDC Reports

Apple (AAPL)


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Call 1-800-BERNANKE.  That's what stock buyers are hoping for.  Another bond buying kind of program will solve all problems.  I'm not so sure.  The FOMC meeting will come shortly after the Greek election.  Voters in Greece are not concerned about moves by the FED.  Economic data in the US is sluggish no matter how it is viewed.  With the main interest rate essentially at zero, there is no more room for rate cuts.  More bond buying can raise Treasury prices &  reduce yields to new record lows, but not sure what that will do for an ailing economy.  Higher taxes remain in the cards unless Congress gets its act together.  That's hard to imagine before the Nov elections.  I wonder if the "smart guys" are selling into this rally because it doesn't feel right to me.

Dow Jones Industrials


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