Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Oversold rally as ECB keeps rates at record lows

Stocks exploded out of the gate & buyers continue to raise prices.  Dow was up 167, advancers over decliners 9-1 & NAZ jumped 51. The Financial Index rose 3+ to the 185s (up 6 from the Mon close).

MlPs continued their rebound, the index rose 5+ to the 363s (up a very big 11 in 2 days) & the REIT index rose 2 to the 247s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher while Treasuries fell back.  Oil rose for a 3rd day on speculation that monetary policy makers will act to spur economic growth, boosting fuel demand. Gold shot up on speculation policies makers don't know what their doing, so this safe haven investment is on the rise.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.613%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...85.20 ...Up 0.91  (1.1%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12...1,637.40 ...Up 22.20  (1.4%)



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ECB President Mario Draghi

Photo:   Bloomberg

ECB President Mario Draghi said officials will extend their offerings of unlimited cash until the start of 2013 for periods up to 3 months as they try to head off risks stemming from the euro region debt crisis.  “We have decided to continue our main refinancing at fixed rate, full allotment for as long as necessary” and at least until January, Draghi said.  But he didn’t indicate whether the ECB plans to offer banks a new round of 3-year cash. 

Draghi Extends Unlimited Cash Offerings as Outlook Dims


ECB Leaves Rates on Hold as Crisis Increases Pressure for Cut

Photo:   Bloomberg

The ECB left its benchmark interest rate unchanged as it increases the pressure on eurozone leaders to tackle a gov debt crisis that threatens the global economy, leaving the refinancing rate at a record low 1%.  The bank is under pressure to stimulate a weakening economy in Europe with a rate cut.  But Draghi undermined any hopes of a cut by sticking to the bank's earlier forecast for a gradual recovery this year.  He said that growth "remains weak, with heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment" & cited "downside risks" to growth.  The eurozone faces trouble on several fronts. Spain is struggling to bail out banks that made reckless loans during a real estate boom & are now suffering mounting losses.  Greece, already rescued by an expensive bailout, faces elections Jun 17 that could result in rejection of the strict cutbacks demanded under its bailout.  And trouble in one place could spread to other countries in the form of investors selling assets & bank customers withdrawing deposits for fear banks will collapse or their savings will be redenominated in a new currency.  Finance ministers from the Western industrial countries held a conference call yesterday to discuss the eurozone crisis.  Renewed financial crisis in Europe could hurt growth in the US & Asia by creating losses & fear among banks, which are key to the functioning of the global economy, & by hurting trade.

ECB Keeps Rates on Hold as Crisis Increases Pressure for Cut

  • <p>               FILE- In this Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012, file photo, Thomas Warren installs a fuel cell on a Freightliner truck at a plant in Cleveland, N.C. U.S. worker productivity fell by the largest amount in a year from January through March, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, June 6, 2012. Productivity fell at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the first quarter. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

US worker productivity in Q1 fell by the largest amount in a year.  The steeper drop than first estimated suggests companies would need to hire more if demand were to pick up.  The Labor Dept said that productivity fell at an annual rate of 0.9%, faster than the initial 0.5% annual decline estimated last month.  Productivity is the amount of output per hour of work.  It fell at a faster rate than first estimated because revisions showed less output & slightly more hours worked.  Labor costs rose 1.3%, down from an initial estimate of 2%, largely due to smaller compensation costs.  The faster decline in productivity was expected after the gov said last week that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in Q1, slower than the initial 2.2% estimate.  Less productivity is bad for corp profits but could be good news for jobseekers.  It could show that companies are struggling to squeeze more output from workers & must hire if demand rises.  So far, companies have signaled a much different message.  Employers added just 69K jobs in May & just 77K in Apr, a sharp decline from the 226K jobs created per month in Q1.

US worker productivity fell 0.9 pct. annual rate AP


The ECB reassured markets that it will keep throwing money at the debt mess & rates will remain at record lows.  That's what the markets wanted to hear, buyers are back.  But we're still in the make it up as we go along phase.  Greece has an all important election next week & Spain needs a bailout.   Meanwhile the US economy is bumbling along.  This recovery is not getting a grade of A.  Dow was very oversold, this reaction was expected.  Fundamental problems have not gone away & show no signs of being resolved quickly.  At today's lofty levels, Dow is still down over 2K from its 2012 highs.

Dow Industrials


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