Friday, November 29, 2013

Markets slip lower after early gains

Dow fell back 10 with selling into the close, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ jumped 15 - helped by a good day for Apple (AAPL).  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 456s & the REIT index dropped almost 3 to 265.  Junk bond funds were fractionally higher & Treasuries eased back a tad.  Oil crawled higher & gold found a few buyers.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.06%

U.S. 2-year

0.28%

U.S. 10-year

2.74%

CLG14.NYM....Crude Oil Feb 14....93.01 Up ...0.38 (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Do-Nothing Congress Dithers on Budget as Panel’s Deadline Nears

Photo:   Bloomberg

The latest attempt by Congress at crafting a budget plan is on track to end up the same way as others have in the past decade: with little or no agreement.  Negotiators have little chance of breaking this string of futility, even after the gov shutdown in Oct that cost the US economy $24B.  If they do, it’ll only be to curb automatic spending cuts, including $19B that hits the Pentagon starting in Jan.  Now budget experts, labor unions & business groups are saying enough’s enough, & questioning why politicos can’t live within their means the way ordinary Americans do & instead lurch from one budget standoff to the next.  Unlike with previous budget panels, including the failed 2011 supercommittee, there are no immediate consequences if the budget conference misses its Dec 13 deadline.  The US won’t default on its debt & the federal gov won’t shut down for lack of funding.  The committee’s lack of progress is frustrating outside groups, especially business executives, who say congressional lawmakers’ habit of governing by crisis & temporary spending bills is hurting the economy & costing jobs.  In addition, the Obamacare website remains a mess.

OPEC oil production dropped to a 2 year low in Nov, led by declines in Saudi Arabian & Nigerian output.  Output by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decreased 245K barrels to an average 30,007K barrels a day this month from 30,252K in Oct.  The Oct total was revised lower by 369K barrels a day because of changes to the Saudi & Libyan estimates.  Saudi Arabian crude output declined 150K barrels a day to 9.65M after pumping 10M barrels a day in Sep (the most in monthly data going back to 1989).  The Oct estimate was reduced by 200K barrels a day.  Nigeria's dropped 100K barrels a day to 1.89M in Nov, the lowest level since May.  Production is often disrupted by unrest in the Niger River delta, the country’s main oil-producing region.

OPEC November Crude Production Falls to Two-Year Low in Survey


Dow wanted to set a new record, but selling into the early market close took it into the red.  It's hard to read too much into the decline.  Just one of those things.  Maybe there was nervousness about Black Friday results which should come out on Mon.  Next week, auto sales for Nov will be reported followed by the big jobs report on Fri.  Dow jumped an amazing 540 in Nov, to numerous new records.




Dow Jones Industrials

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