Thursday, July 23, 2015

Dow is back in the red YTD on earnings

Dow dropped 119 (closing near the lows), decliners over advancers more than 2-1 & NAZ lost 25.  After starting higher, the MLP index was fractionally lower in the 348s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 314s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries saw buying.  Oil is down to the 48s, the 45 test is not far away, & gold keeps sliding lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)











CLU15.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 15....48.34 Down ...0.85  (1.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The troika is back.  6 months after former Finance Minister Varoufakis gave them the boot, Greece’s 3 main official creditors are sending representatives back to Athens starting tomorrow.  Their arrival draws a line under the antagonism the Syriza gov displayed in the afterglow of its election victory as Prime Minister Tsipras accepts the pain required to save his country from economic calamity.  After tapping a €7B ($7.7B) bridge loan to avoid defaulting on the ECB this month, Tsipras is racing to complete negotiations on a 3rd bailout in 5 years before €3.2B more comes due to the ECB on Aug 20.  To release the funds, Tsipras needs to get past the troika.  Under Greece’s first 2 rescue programs, the demands of the IMF, the European Commission & ECB encapsulated the nation’s humiliation & became a focal point for people’s rage.  The word troika became so loaded that the bailout enforcers were re-baptized “the institutions” in a nod to Greek sensitivities.  The troika’s presence in the Greek capital has often been met with throngs of angry protesters lamenting years of austerity that saw the economy contract by a qtr & unemployment soar to the highest in Europe.  A man was arrested in 2013 for throwing coins at then IMF mission chief as he arrived at the Greek finance ministry.  Now European dept chief at the fund, he requires 24-hour bodyguard protection whenever he visits Athens, on the recommendation of police.  The European team works out of a bullet-proof office with double security doors outside the center of Athens where there are no EU flags or insignia to attract attention.  The former head of the commission’s team was guarded by an armed, plain-clothes policeman.  Last year, a bomb exploded outside the IMF offices.

The Troika Returns to Athens


Caterpillar, a Dow stock, is looking to manage costs as ongoing economic weakness in countries like China & Brazil & soft commodity prices pressure sales.  While Q2 profit topped expectations, revenue fell short & the construction equipment company cut its revenue forecast for the year.  EPS was $1.16, versus $1.57 last year.  EPS, adjusted for restructuring costs, were $1.27 per share, 2¢ better than expectations.  Revenue was $12.32B, shy of the $12.84B forecast.  CAT foresees revenue of about $49B, $1B less that previous guidance.  But the company maintained its outlook for full-year adjusted EPS of $5.  Analysts forecast EPS of $4.97 on revenue of $49.47B.  The company said that it plans to buy back $1.5B of its stock in Q3.  The stock slumped 2.88.  If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar 2Q results mixed; cuts 2015 revenue forecastAP

Caterpillar (CAT)



Some lower expenses helped 3M, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, post a higher profit in Q2, but foreign currency translation pressured revenue.  The maker of Post-it notes, industrial coatings & ceramics also cut the high end of its forecast range for 2015 earnings, citing lower-than-expected global economic growth.  For the qtr, EPS rose to 2.02 from $1.91 last year.  The results beat expectations of $1.99.  Operating expenses declined to $5.85B from $6.28B.  Revenue dropped to $7.69B from $8.13B as sales declined across its business segments.  Analysts expected higher revenue of $7.9B.  For 2015, MMM anticipates EPS of $7.80-$8.00.  Its previous guidance was for $7.80-$8.10.  Analysts predict EPS of $5.91.  The stock tumbled 5.91.  If you would like to learn more about MMM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MMM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

3M's 2nd-quarter performance mixedAP

3M Company (MMM)



Earnings are coming & investors are not happy.  Similar themes repeat, hurt by the strong dollar which is also making it difficult for significant revenue increases.  Oil has been weak on worries about slower global economic growth reducing the market for oil plus more oil coming from Iran shortly.  MLPs have been hurt especially hard for a variety of negative reasons.  Dow is back in the red YTD.  The bulls remain on holiday.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart 






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