Dow dropped 36 (with swlling in midday & buying in the last hour of trading), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ gained 92. The MLP index crawled higher above 150 & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 377s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries remained in demand. Oil rose in the 52s & gold was off 2 the 1853 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The first single-dose COVID-19 vaccine could get emergency approval
in as little as 2 weeks, Dr Anthony Fauci suggested. “I
would be surprised if it was any more than two weeks from now that the
data will be analyzed and decisions would be made” about the vaccine
being developed by Johnson & Johnson, Fauci said. “We’ll look at the data and determine if it’s ready to be
given to the public,” Fauci said, “so they can go to the FDA to ask if
they can get an emergency-use authorization.” Fauci said the US
gov was working with pharmaceutical companies on 6 vaccine
candidates, 2 of which have already gotten the go-ahead for use on an
emergency basis. Both vaccines currently being distributed & administered in the US require cold storage & 2 doses. The vaccine from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, doesn't have the same need to be kept supercold, Fauci said, &
only requires one dose. Those factors will make a big difference in the
ability to get the shots to people, he said. “It gives a wider range of
flexibility,” he added. JNJ has said it expects to have 100M doses available by Apr. The stock rose 2.32.
If you would like to learn more about JNJ, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JNJ?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Fast information about COVID-19 vaccines for seniors — where, when and how to get them
The Chicago Fed’s national activity index, which is designed to gauge overall US economic activity, increased to 0.52 in Dec from a revised 0.31 in the prior month. The 3-month moving average, which smooths out volatility, inched up to 0.61 from 0.59 in Nov. A zero value in the index indicates the national economy is expanding at its historic trend rate of growth. The Nov reading was revised from an initial estimate of 0.27. The Chicago Fed index is a weighted average of 85 indicators. 53 of the indicators made positive contributions to the index in Dec, up from 45 in the prior month. The factory sector boosted the index in Dec, while consumption indicators weakened. Production-related indicators contributed 0.44 to the index in Dec up from 0.13 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators contributed 0.13 to the index & the personal consumption & housing indicators subtracted 0.09 in Dec. Despite the gain in Dec, the index is still well below the 1.01 reading in Oct. It shows the US economy is finding it hard to grow as COVID-19 cases sweep across the country. The data also fits with a picture of a healthy factory sector & a struggling service economy.
Chicago Fed’s December national activity index ticks higher on factory output
Gold futures ended lower, down for a 3rd straight session, as gov bond yields pulled back & the $ strengthened, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy later this week. Feb gold fell $1 to settle at $1855, off the session’s low of $1846. Prices put in a weekly gain of 1.4% on Fri. The gold market also weighed prospects for a proposed $1.9T coronavirus relief package from newly minted Pres Biden, as well as further guidance from the Fed on its liquidity programs, which have been underpinning financial markets.
Gold down a third session as dollar firms ahead of the Fed meeting
China overtook the US as the world's top destination for new foreign direct investment last year, as the Covid-19 pandemic amplifies an eastward shift in the center of gravity of the global economy. New investments by overseas businesses into the US, which for decades held the #1 spot, fell 49% in 2020, according to UN figures, as the country struggled to curb the spread of the new coronavirus & economic output slumped. China, long ranked #2, saw direct investments by foreign companies climb 4%, the UN Conference on Trade & Development said. Beijing used strict lockdowns to largely contain Covid-19 after the disease first emerged in a central Chinese city & China's GDP grew even as most other major economies contracted last year. The 2020 investment numbers underline China's move toward the center of a global economy long dominated by the US, a shift accelerated during the pandemic as China has cemented its position as the world's factory floor & expanded its share of global trade. While China attracted more new inflows last year, the total stock of foreign investment in the US remains much larger, reflecting the decades it has spent as the most attractive location for foreign businesses looking to expand outside their home markets. Foreign investment in the US peaked in 2016 at $472B, when foreign investment in China was $134B. Since then, investment in China has continued to rise, while in the US it has fallen each year since 2017. The Trump administration encouraged American companies to leave China & re-establish operations in the US. It also put Chinese investors on notice that acquisitions in the US would face new scrutiny on national security grounds—cooling Chinese interest in American deal making.
China overtook US as top destination for foreign investment last year
Oil futures finished higher, lifted by risks to global supplies as Iraq reportedly plans to cut production & Libya sees disruptions to crude exports due to a pay dispute. Iraq plans to produce 3.6M barrels a day of oil in Jan & Feb which would fall below the 3.86M barrels a day allowed under the agreement by OPEC & its allies (OPEC+). The deeper cuts aim to compensate for overproduction by the country in 2020. West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar rose 50¢ (1%) to settle at $52.77 a barrel. Mar Bre, the global benchmark, added 47¢ (0.9%) at $55.88 a barrel. A report said that Libya's Petroleum Facilities Guard halted all oil exports from the ports of Ras Lanuf, Es Sider & Hariga due to a pay dispute. In the US, Pres Biden is pushing for quick approval of his proposed $1.9T pandemic relief package.
Oil prices get a boost from risks to global supplies
Little was decided today in the stock market. Traders are evakuating the moves made by the new administration & waiting for the Fed to speak on Wed. Q4 GDP data should be relesased on Thurs & will likely show little or no growth.
Dow Jones Industrials
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