Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Markets rise on renewed hopes for a stimulus bill

Dow went up 56, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 70.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 187s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 435s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries crawled higher in price.  Oil slid under 66 & gold added 5 to 1901.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil 65.44
  -0.63-1.0%
















GC=FGold    1,903.30
 +5.30+0.3%






 

 




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A group of Senate Reps plans to send Pres Biden an infrastructure counteroffer worth about $1T this week, according to a GOP source familiar with the negotiations.  The 8-year proposal – which is much closer in line to the Biden administration's target – would be paid for by repurposing unused federal funds previously allocated for coronavirus relief efforts.  Sen Roger Wicker told reporters after a meeting between the Rep negotiators that the bill would be close to Biden's request.  However, the measure will not affect the 2017 tax law that slashed the corp tax rate to 21%.  "We're going to hit a figure very close to what the president said he would accept, and it will end up being the most substantial infrastructure bill ever enacted by the federal government," Wicker said.  "And if the president gets to make the decision, he will accept it."  Sen Shelley Moore Capito told reporters the new offer will be unveiled tomorrow.  Reps had previously countered with a package worth about $568B that focused solely on traditional infrastructure, including roads, ports, bridges, water lines & broadband.  The White House has said it would like to see progress on a bill by Memorial Day & has indicated that it wants to send the measure to Biden's desk before the Aug recess.  The chance of a deal between the 2 parties appeared to crumble over the weekend after the Biden administration cut its offer from $2.3T to $1.7T & a key Republican negotiator said it was still "well above the range of what can pass Congress with bipartisan support."

Senate Republicans prepping infrastructure counteroffer

Nordstrom (JWN) reported better-than-expected fiscal Q1 sales, as shoppers showed up to its stores again to buy new shoes, sunglasses & swimwear for social outings.  But its stock tumbled as the retailer booked a wider-than-expected loss & maintained its full-year outlook, despite other retail rivals boosting their forecasts in recent days.  Management said elevated labor & shipping costs, in addition to supply chain constraints in the apparel industry, are creating continued pressure on its business.  The company reported a loss per share of $1.05, compared with a loss of $3.33 per share a year earlier.  That was wider than the loss of 57¢ expected.  It reported total revenue of $3.0B, up from $2.1B a year earlier which beat expectations for $2.9B.  Net sales, which don't include credit card revenue, were up 44% from the year-ago period, when its stores were closed for roughly ½ the qtr due to restrictions put in place during the Covid pandemic.  But net sales were down 13% relative to the same period in fiscal 2019.  The department store chain reaffirmed its fiscal 2021 outlook that calls for revenue growth of more than 25% & also anticipates digital will drive ½ of its business by year-end.  The stock dropped 3.17 (9%).
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Nordstrom shares fall as earnings and 2021 outlook disappoint

A slight increase in mortgage interest rates was enough to tank refinances & bring down overall demand.  Total mortgage application volume fell 4.2% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBS) seasonally adjusted index.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548K or less) increased to 3.18% from 3.15%, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  While the rate increase was small, refinance demand fell 7% for the week & was 9% lower than a year ago.  So many borrowers have already refinanced at rates below 3% that there is just not a lot of opportunity left.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 61.4% of total applications from 63.3% the previous week.  Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 2% for the week but were 4% lower than a year ago.  “While purchase activity was around 4% lower than a year ago, the comparison is to last spring’s large upswing in activity as pandemic-related lockdowns lifted,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.  “Demand is robust throughout the country, but homebuyers continue to be held back by the lack of homes for sale and rapidly increasing home prices.”

Weekly mortgage demand falls as interest rates move higher

Besides endless talk,.it looks like those guys in DC want to get something done on an infrastructure bill.  The deadline is only a few days away & they seem to be closing in on a deal (for a change).  But don't believe anything until the bill is signed.  Meanwhile, the threat of higher inflation is a dark cloud over the markets which shows no sign of going away soon.  As a result the Dow has been unable to rise significantly above 34K while gold keeps rising.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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