Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Markets sink on stagflation fears and retail earnings

Dow slumped 475, decliners over advancers 5-1 & NAZ declined 127.  The MLP index lost 4+ to the 183s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil plunged 3+ to the 62s & gold soared 15 to 1883.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil63.10
   -2.39  -3.7%
























GC=FGold   1,888.20
+20.20 +1.1%




















 

 




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While demand for mortgage applications rose slightly in the past week, applications to purchase a home fell.  "A decline in purchase applications was seen for both conventional and government loans. There continues to be strong demand for buying a home, but persistent supply shortages are constraining purchase activity, and building material shortages and higher costs are making it more difficult to increase supply" said Joel Kan, MBA's associate VP of economic & industry forecasting.  The seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 4%, while interest in mortgage applications increased 1.2% from a week ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly survey. Interest in refinancing rose 4%.  The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.15% from 3.11% with mortgage rates hit their highest level in 2 weeks across most major loans.  The survey covers over 75% of all US retail residential mortgage applications & has been conducted weekly since 1990.

Housing shortage pushes mortgage purchase applications down

Lowe's (LOW) reported a 25.9% jump in quarterly same-store sales growth, signaling it was slipping further behind the competition after gaining ground during the pandemic.  Sales to its core base of do-it-yourself homeowners surged since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, helping the company outpace growth from the competition, where a comparatively larger portion of revenue comes from builders & handymen.  LOW benefited in the qtr as fresh stimulus checks helped home improvement demand remain resilient even as speedy vaccinations & the reopening of economies threaten to ease the pandemic-fueled boom.  Lowe's is tracking ahead what it calls a "robust market scenario" for the full year, which estimates fiscal 2021 sales of $86B, down about 4% from last year.  Total net sales rose 24.1% to $24.4B in Q1, beating estimates of $23.9B.  EPS was $3.21, sharply ahead of $1.76  last year.  The forecast called for EPS of $2.62.  The stock sank 4.96.
If you would like to learn more about LOW, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LOW?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Lowe's growth lags Home Depot in home improvement battle

Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, said fiscal Q1 sales rose 23%, as investments it made in exclusive brands & services like curbside pickup strengthened customer loyalty & kept them coming back.  The retailer also said it is benefiting from rising vaccination rates, a reopening economy & busier social calendars:  Customers gravitated to new merchandise, especially clothes.  Some returned to browsing again inside of stores.  “We are seeing a much more optimistic consumer, who is excited about getting back to the life that they haven’t lived for the last year,” CEO Brian Cornell said.  Buoyed by this confidence, TGT offered a Q2 forecast that was well above expectations, despite facing tough year-over-year comparisons.  EPS jumped to $4.17 from 56¢ a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $3.69, higher than the $2.25 expected.  Total revenue rose 23% to $24.2B from the same period a year ago, outpacing expectations of $21.8B.  The retailer said it has continued to attract new customers & entice them to spend more.  It said it picked up $1B in market share, on top of the about $9B in market share last fiscal year.  At its stores & on its website, traffic grew by 17% & basket size grew by 5% compared with a year earlier.  Its comparable sales, a key metric that tracks sales at stores open at least 13 months & online, grew 22.9% compared with a year earlier.  That was significantly more than the 10.7% that was expected.  Comparable store sales grew 18%, while digital comparable sales grew 50%.  The stock shot up 8.88.
If you would like to learn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target sales jump 23% as exclusive brands, curbside pickup draw in shoppers

Oil saw significant selling on worries about economic recovery & retail earnings are getting mixed reviews.  Inflation fears are a major worry for investors.  The Fed minutes later today may help.  Already, buyers are returning to buy stocks while gold continues in heavy demand.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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