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Back-to-school shopping is projected to top pre-pandemic levels & reach a record-breaking $108B as an increasing number of students & families prepare for in-person instruction this fall, according to the nation's largest retail trade group. Total spending for school-aged children alone, which excludes college students, is expected to hit an all-time high of $37B this fall, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) & Prosper Insights & Analytics Jul 2021 Consumer Survey. This surpasses the $34B spent in 2020 when parents rushed to buy the necessary supplies to help their children set up workstations at home, according to data from the retail trade group. On average, families with school-aged children plan to dole out $849 for supplies this season, according to the NRF. Meanwhile, college students & their families are projected to spend an average of $1200 on supplies, which is about $141 more than last year. In total, back-to-college spending is projected to reach a record $71B, an increase from the $68B spent in 2020. The back-to-school shopping season is seen as an important time for retailers ahead of the bustling holiday season. Although the summer season is in its infancy, more than 50% of students & their families have already started gearing up for the new school year with in-person instruction. In fact, according to the annual Jun survey, 64% of back-to-school shoppers expect schools to be in-person after a prolonged period of Zoom learning. This means shoppers won't only be eyeing new materials – but potentially a new wardrobe as well. However, not all back-to-school shoppers have been able to get a head start. More than 75% of shoppers are still waiting to get school supply lists for the 2021-2022 school year. For now, those families & students have purchased 18% of the total items they will probably need, according to data from the NRF.
Back-to-school spending to hit all-time highs as more families prepare for in-person instruction
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to move ahead this week with the process of passing a $1.2T bipartisan infrastructure bill in the Senate, despite the fact that senators negotiating the legislation have yet to reach a consensus on what will be in it. Also this week, Schumer wants Senate Dems to agree to move forward with a $3.5T budget resolution that they plan to pass without any Rep votes. Schumer is under intense pressure to advance both of Pres Biden's domestic spending packages before senators leave for a scheduled Aug recess early next month. But several Reps whose votes Schumer will need to pass the 60-vote threshold to advance the infrastructure bill have sounded alarms about the rushed timeline & threatened to vote against any effort to move the bill before negotiators have finished writing it. “We shouldn’t have an arbitrary deadline of Wednesday,” said Ohio Sen Rob Portman, the lead Rep negotiating the deal. “We should bring the legislation forward when it’s ready.” But Schumer sees the deadline as a crucial lever to force the bipartisan group of 22 senators to come to an agreement on tough issues. None is more difficult than how to pay for the $579B in new infrastructure funding they agreed to spend earlier this year. Portman said he spent this past weekend working on the deal with members of the Senate group & the White House. But rather than grow the list of potential funding sources for the bill, Portman said Reps had recently axed a provision that would fund part of the upgrades to infrastructure by collecting unpaid taxes. “Everyone has been having productive conversations, and it’s important to keep the two-track process moving,” Schumer said Thurs. “All parties involved in the bipartisan infrastructure bill talks must now finalize their agreement so the Senate can begin considering that legislation next week,” he added. Schumer announced that he intends to file a motion today to proceed with a shell bill that would be used as the “vehicle” for the infrastructure bill once it is written. The shell bill contains highway funding authorization that has been passed by the House already. Doing so would set up another procedural cloture vote Wed. If 60 senators vote to invoke cloture, that triggers up to 30 hours of debate in the Senate, followed by a vote on the motion to proceed with the shell legislation, according to Schumer's office. During the subsequent amendment process, Schumer would file an amendment swapping out the shell legislation with the actual text of the final bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Schumer to push Senate forward on bipartisan infrastructure bill, budget resolution this week
Gold futures marked a 2nd-straight decline amid some
strength in the $ & a sharp, global selloff in equities,
partly prompted by renewed concerns about the spread of the COVID-19
delta variant. Aug gold edged down $5 to settle at $1809 an ounce, following a loss of 0.8% on Fri. Last week, bullion put
in a gain of about 0.2% to mark its 4th straight such rise &
matching its longest streak since the period ended May 28. Reports
indicated that the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 is
sparking a fresh resurgence in infections in the US & elsewhere in
the world. As many as 82M Americans remain unvaccinated or
without COVID-19 antibodies & there are growing concerns that the
delta variant could deliver a fresh blow to the economy. The worries are driving investors into the safety of $s, which
is putting some initial pressure on gold, which would ordinarily draw
haven bids. The $ was up 0.1%, as gauged by the ICE U.S.
Doll
which measures the buck against a ½-dozen major currencies. A stronger $ can make assets priced in the currency, like precious metals, more expensive for overseas buyers. ?//The selloff in equities also came as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was receding to its lowest levels since mid-Feb, dropping below 1.20%.
Gold down a second session as COVID delta variant’s spread helps support the dollar
Crude-oil futures fell sharply to end below $70 a barrel, with US prices posting their biggest daily percentage loss since Sep. Concerns over the spread of the COVID delta variant continue to cloud the demand outlook after OPEC+ reached a deal to boost oil production. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Aug dropped $5.39 (7.5%) to settle at $66.42 a barrel. The Aug contract expires at tomorrow's settlement. The US benchmark last week ended down 3.7%, the biggest weekly fall for a front-month contract since the week ended Mar 26. Sep Brent crude the global benchmark, tumbled $4.97 (6.8%) to $68.62 a barrel. Front-month WTI suffered its largest single-session percentage decline since Sep 8 & lowest settlement since May 28. Brent crude's percentage loss was the biggest since Mar & it logged its lowest finish since May 24. The oil cartel & its allies announced yesterday that production levels will be boosted by 400K barrels a day each month starting in Aug & eventually unravel curbs put in place last year in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. An agreement had been held up by a weekslong standoff between Saudi Arabia & the UAE over how much the latter would be allowed to pump. One sticking point from the UAE was its insistence that the baseline used to determine its output level be raised. OPEC+ agreed to lift baselines for the UAE several other countries in May 2022.
There was substantial selling at the opening & selling continued almost all day. There was buying into the close. Biden gave a speech at midday, saying that his massive spending bill would grow the economy & would not be a negative on inflation. Huh!! Selling continued after the speech. The news on the delta variant of the virus is scary. Earnings are coming this week & investors have very high expectations.Dow Jones Industrials
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