Dow rose 126 (an inch below 35K), advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ gained 31 (another record). The MLP index slid back 1+ to the 194s & the REIT index went up 4+ to the 464s (a new record). Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries saw a tiny bit of selling. Oil fell in the 74s & gold was off 3 to 1807.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Despite the Federal Reserve's assurance that current inflation pressures won’t last, consumers see things differently, according to a survey from the central bank's New York district. The Jun Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that median inflation expectations over the next 12 months jumped to 4.8%, a 0.8 percentage point rise from May & the highest reading in history for a series that goes back to 2013. While the outlook for the next 3 years remained unchanged at 3.6%, that is still well above the 2% level that the Fed considers healthy for a growing economy. Central bank officials have been insistent that the recent inflation spike won't last. They projected at their Jun meeting that their preferred gauge would show a 3% gain in 2021 but then recede to 2.1% in subsequent years & settle around the target range thereafter. A Fed report released Fri that Chair Jerome Powell will present to Congress this week reiterated the central bank's position that the current inflationary pressures are “transitory” & largely the result of supply chain bottlenecks & other factors likely to abate as the economy returns to its post-pandemic normal. More inflation indicators are on the way this week. The Jun consumer price index, which factors less into the Fed's decision-making than the personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to show a 5% year-over-year gain, matching the May level, which was the highest since 2008. Stripping out volatile food & energy prices, the CPI is projected to rise 4%, up from 3.8% for what would be the highest since 1992. Consumers surveyed by the Fed expect the home price acceleration to continue at a 6.2% annual pace, the same as in May, though the uncertainty range around that projection was the highest in series history. Workers see earnings rising by 2.6% on a 12-month basis, the highest since the pandemic began in Mar 2020. Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year fell to 30.7%, the lowest in series history.
Inflation expectations surge, hitting new high for New York Fed survey
Pfizer (PFE) is meeting with federal health officials to press its case for
Covid-19 vaccine booster shots as the pharmaceutical company prepares
to seek US authorization for a 3rd shot. The
meeting comes amid a public dispute between the drugmaker & US
officials on if & when Americans will need additional doses of the
Covid vaccines. PFE said it is starting to see waning immunity from its 2-dose vaccine & now plans to seek authorization for a booster dose. But
shortly after the announcement, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention & the Food & Drug Administration released a joint
statement rebuking the company's comments, saying Americans who have
been fully vaccinated against Covid do not need booster shots at this
time. The debate over booster shots comes as the public becomes
increasingly concerned about the highly transmissible delta variant —
already the dominant form of the disease in the US — & whether
current regimens of the authorized vaccines will provide enough
protection. PFE stock went up 13¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Pfizer to press its case to U.S. officials Monday on need for Covid booster shots
For more than a year now, the housing market has been a perfect storm for sellers, but the winds may finally be shifting. Strong demand and record-low supply are starting to ease & mortgage rates are coming down off their recent highs. While home prices are still surging, these new market dynamics will likely take some of the heat out of those gains as well. New listings of homes jumped 4% in the f4 week period ending Jul 4 compared with the same period one year ago, according to Redfin. They were up 3% from the same time in 2019 & it was the first time new supply topped pre-pandemic levels. The number of active listings is still down 32% from a year ago, but that’s actually the smallest annual drop since early Feb. Active listings are now up 8% from their 2021 low in early Mar. “Many buyers have backed away from the housing market and are waiting until more and better homes are listed,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist. “Buyers don’t have the same sense of urgency that they did at the beginning of the year. They aren’t racing to buy before prices increase, because asking prices have already increased and stabilized.” A monthly housing sentiment survey in Jun from Fannie Mae found that 64% of respondents said it's a bad time to buy a home, up from 56% in May. On selling, 77% of respondents said it’s a good time to sell, up from 67% in May. Potential sellers had been holding properties off the market, not wanting people coming thru their homes while the pandemic was raging. They were also concerned they wouldn't be able to find something else to buy. Vaccines, as well as rising inventory, are giving them more confidence, not to mention that they can now sell for top $. A record 55% of homes sold above listing price in Jun, up from 27% the year before. Home prices were up 15.4% in May compared with May 2020, according to CoreLogic. Prices, however, are projected by CoreLogic economists to increase 3.4% by May 2022, as affordability challenges hit some buyers & cause a slowdown in price growth.
Homebuyers are finally catching a break as new listings rise and mortgage rates drop
Gold futures fell, weighed down by a perkier $ & US equities that were holding at or near record-high levels, but prices for the precious metal finished above the $1800 mark for a 4th consecutive session. Aug gold declined by $4 to settle at $1805 an ounce following a climb of 0.6% on Fri. On Fri, the commodity marked its 3rd straight weekly advance & its sharpest rise since May 21, as choppiness in stocks, a tepid $ & rapidly receding yields proved a bullish cocktail for bullion in a US holiday-shortened week. The $ was up 0.1% today, as gauged by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the buck against a ½-dozen currencies.
Gold falls, but ends above $1,800 mark for a 4th straight session
Oil futures marked their first loss in 3 sessions, with prices succumbing to growing concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that could hobble appetite for crude in parts of the world, commodity specialists warn. Renewed fretting about oil demand in the face of more transmissible variants of COVID also amplified the discord between OPEC & its allies (OPEC+) as a spat over easing output curbs remains unresolved. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Aug, the US benchmark, fell 46¢ (0.6%) to settle at $74.10 a barrel. Sep Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined by 39¢ (0.5%) at $75.16 a barrel. On Fri, both WTI & Brent futures posted gains for a 2nd straight session, but suffered a 0.8% weekly decline. Today, Saudi Arabia & Oman called for continued cooperation between OPEC & other OPEC+ members to stabilize & balance the oil market. Oil trading has been volatile after OPEC+ talks collapsed earlier this month, derailing a proposal to ease existing output curbs in a controlled manner & allow production to rise by 400K barrels a day each month from Aug thru Dec. The UAE has blocked a deal, insisting that it should be allowed to raise the amount of crude it pumps under the initial agreement on production cuts. Cautious statements over the weekend from finance ministers of the world’s 20 largest economies also added to the pessimism in crude trade today.
Oil prices mark first loss in 3 sessions as worries about spread of COVID variant intensify
Dow Jones Industrials
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