Dow slid back 128, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ dropped 114. The MLP index added 2+ to the 228s & the REIT index remained in the 371s. Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries continued to be sold. Oil lost 1+, falling to the 86s, & gold was off 6 to 1638 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
This election season, voters are laser-focused on one big issue: the economy. Americans rank inflation as the most important problem facing the US followed by jobs & the overall economy, an Oct Ipsos/Reuters poll found. In the last year, Americans aimed to go back to dining out, traveling & enjoying in-person events, which became scarce in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. But skyrocketing prices for everything from eggs to airfare, as well as uncertainty about the future, put a damper on many of those plans. Voters may be divided on a lot of issues, but they all seem to agree that money & how the gov affects it need to be addressed. When asked what single message voters hope to send politicians with their votes this year, the responses tied for #1 are “be more effective and do more” & “fix the economy and reduce the cost of living,” an NBC News poll found. Here's a look at 3 of the top economic issues facing the US.
1. The growing cost of living
The consumer price index sitting comfortably at 40-year highs has consumers frustrated & pinching pennies to make ends meet. Elevated prices on essentials like gas & groceries make it difficult to find places to cut back.
2. The looming possibility of a recession
While bright spots like low unemployment & a rebounding gross domestic product (GDP) show some potential for fighting off an impending recession, voters & experts aren't feeling optimistic about avoiding one altogether.
3. The volatile stock market
The stock market is not a full picture of the economy, but its performance certainly matters to voters. Watching their portfolios swell as pandemic recovery efforts took hold, only to bust & remain volatile through 2022, has many consumers re-thinking retirement plans & worried about their futures.
1 in 3 voters say fixing the US economy should be top priority
One supply chain logistics expert is warning that more importers & retailers are signaling a shipping "decline coming about" & carrying into the new year. "I went into a major retailer recently just to get a feel of the products in there, and I'm seeing summer goods when it should be fall and winter goods for children," Alba Wheels Up Intl founder & pres Salvatore Stile said. "So I really think that, especially 2023 is going to be very dismal." The custom shipping brokerage company has reportedly seen a 20% decline in ocean freight orders in recent months, according to its founder, who claimed excess inventory & a possible resurgence of nationwide rail strikes are factors playing into retailers’ worries. Last month, spending at retail stores fell flat as consumers continue to confront the hottest inflation in 40 years. Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods, including cars, food & gasoline, was unchanged at 0% in Sep, the Commerce Dept reported. The forecast expected sales to increase 0.2%. That is a marked decline from the upwardly revised data in Aug, which showed that retail sales actually climbed 0.4%. The Sep advance is not adjusted for inflation – which rose 0.4% last month – meaning that consumers may be spending the same but getting less bang for their buck. Stile said the retail data is showing a "false impression" of consumer spending. "I think that was really unhealthy spending," Stile explained. "Credit card debt has increased, it's taking longer for consumers to pay their debt, and I think a lot of the spending was due to retailers giving special sale items on excess inventory that they had from the previous months."
Supply chain expert signals ‘very dismal’ 2023 for US retailers
2 omicron subvariants that are resistant to key antibody treatments are on the rise in the US, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. The subvariants BQ.1 & BQ.1.1 now represent 27% of infections in the US, a significant jump from the week prior when they made up about 16% of new cases. Omicron BA.5, though still the dominant variant, is diminishing every week. It now represents about 50% of infections in the US, down from 60% the week prior. Pres Biden warned people with compromised immune systems that they were particularly at risk this winter because antibody treatments are not effective against emerging subvariants. BQ.1 & BQ.1.1 are likely resistant to Evusheld & bebtelovimab, according to the National Institutes of Health. Evusheld is an antibody cocktail administered as 2 injections that people ages 12 & older with moderately or severely compromised immune systems take to prevent Covid-19. Bebtelovimab is a monoclonal antibody taken to treat Covid after an infection. Biden urged people with weak immune systems to consult their physicians on what precautions to take. Dr Ashish Jha, head of the White House Covid task force, said the US is running out of options to treat the vulnerable because Congress failed to pass more money for the nation's Covid response.
Omicron subvariants resistant to key antibody treatments are rising every week
Gold futures ended lower & also booked a 7th straight monthly loss, the longest such streak based on most actively traded contracts since 1982. Higher Treasury yields & a stronger $ continued to weigh on precious metals prices, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement Wed, when the central bank is expected to announce a sharp rise in interest rates. Gold for Dec fell $4 to $1640 per ounce. Based on the most-active contracts, the yellow metal lost 1.9% for the month, down a 7th straight month for the longest stretch of such losses since a 7-month decline ended in 1982. Gold remains a prisoner of the $ ahead of Wed's Fed decision & then the non-farm jobs data on Fri. Bullion has been particularly sensitive to moves in the $ & a rise in gov debt yields, which can undercut appetite for precious metals. The ICE US Dollar Index a gauge of the $'s strength against a basket of rivals, rose 0.7% to 111.575. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 2 points to 4.037%.
Gold logs 7th straight monthly decline — its longest losing streak in 40 years
Oil futures fell, feeling pressure after a weak reading on China factory activity & a widening of COVID-19 curbs by the country, but still marked their first monthly gain since May. Dec WTI oil fell $1.37 (1.6%) to settle at $86.53 per barrel. Oil declined after China's official gauges for measuring factory, construction & service activities all fell into contraction territory in Oct, underlining fears about economic weakness -- & crude demand -- by the world's 2nd-largest economy. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 49.2 in Oct, compared with 50.1 in Sep, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The forecast called for a reading of 49.7. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in activity. Meanwhile, news reports said Chinese cities were expanding COVID-19 lockdowns in an effort to control the spread of the virus. Lockdowns have been blamed for curtailing crude imports by China & weighing on economic activity. For Oct, oil prices posted an overall gain, supported by tight global supplies & a decision by OPEC+ earlier in the month to cut production in Nov.
Oil ends down for the day, up for the month
Dow Jones Industrials
