Monday, October 10, 2022

Market edge lower ahead of inflation data reported this week

Dow slid back 98, decliners over advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ was off 143.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 207s & the REIT index was flattish near 345.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were closed for the holiday.  Oil fluctuated in the 92s & gold sank 31 to 1671.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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Adobe projected that online shopping sales are expected to reach $210B this holiday season amid consumers grappling with scorching-hot inflation & rising borrowing costs.  According to Adobe, the projected total for online shopping sales during the 2022 holiday season spanning Nov 1 - Dec 31 would constitute a 2.5% increase from 2021, when shoppers spent $205B.  Nearly ½ of the projected $210B in online spending is expected to come from electronics ($49.8B), apparel ($40.7B) & groceries ($13.3B).  However, the upcoming holiday season "will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week," Adobe's VP of growth marketing & insights, Patrick Brown, said.  Cyber Week, which runs from Thanksgiving thru Cyber Mon, will drive $34.8B in online sales, making up 16.3% of the holiday season's online spending, Adobe projected.  Last year, Cyber Week's deals comprised 16.6% of online holiday shopping sales.  While the early Oct deals are projected to impact Cyber Week's performance, Cyber Mon – the Mon after Thanksgiving – is still projected to remain the "season's and year's biggest shopping day," according to Adobe.  Consumers are expected to spend $11.2B on the internet that day, a 5.1% increase from 2021.  Black Friday profits are projected to hit $9B.  Adobe forecasted that Thanksgiving is expected to drive fewer profits this year, dropping to $5.1B.

Online holiday shopping sales to reach $209.7B this year, Adobe projects

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen added her voice to the members of the Biden administration sounding off against the recent oil production cuts announced by the group OPEC+. placeholder Yellen said the move by OPEC+ to cut oil production was "unhelpful and unwise" for the global economy, particularly emerging markets already struggling with high energy prices.  The Biden administration has been loudly critical of the decision by the oil cartel which took the step in defiance of US pressure to keep global oil prices down.  "I think OPEC's decision is unhelpful and unwise — it’s uncertain what impact it will end up having, but certainly, it’s something that, to me, did not seem appropriate, under the circumstances we face," said Yellen.  "We’re very worried about developing countries and the problems they face."  Last year's holiday shopping season got off to an early start as well.  But that was because shoppers were scrambling to secure gifts as supply chain bottlenecks led to shortages on a wide range of products.  Now, retailers are the ones offering deals early, either to get rid of inventory or to compete for business.  The ongoing discounting means spending may be spread out more this holiday season. 

'UNHELPFUL AND UNWISE': Yellen says OPEC oil production cuts bad for global economy

The personal computing market saw shipments continue to cool in Q3 as demand waned & supply chain issues persisted, according to the data from the Intl Data Corp (IDC).  Compared with this time last year, shipments were down 15%, which is still well above pre-pandemic levels, IDC found.  Global shipments totaled 74.3M in the qtr, down from 87.3M during the same period last year.  HP (HPQ) saw PC shipments decline about 28%, Dell (Dell) shipments were down 21% & 6%.  Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) bucked the trend with PC shipments rising 40% in Q3.  AMD (AMD) hinted at this headwind last week when the chipmaker cut its sales forecast on Thurs for Q3, blaming a larger-than-expected decline in the PC market & supply chain issues.

PC shipments fall for HP, Lenovo and Dell but Apple shipments rise in Q3

Dow began trading higher today, but sellers took over in the last hour.  Traders are waiting for important inflation data later this week.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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