Friday, October 21, 2022

Markets charge higher after Fed official talks about lowering rate hikes

Dow shot up 748 (session highs), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ went up 244.  The MLP index rose 3+ to 220 & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 548s.  Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries were purchased, reducing yields modestly.  Oil edged higher in the 84s & gold climbed 22 to 1658 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Verizon (VZ), a Dow stock, profit fell 23% & it added fewer-than-expected wireless subscribers in Q3 as its raised prices drove some customers to cheaper plans from fast-growing rivals.  The largest US wireless carrier said it lost 189K monthly bill-paying phone subscribers in its consumer business after it included additional charges in Jun, over & above its pricey plans.  Those plans are the most expensive, added 8K net new monthly bill paying wireless phone subscribers, well below estimates of 35K additions.  Some analysts feared competition is catching up, while many said its high price must been seen as its strength. Its net subscriber addition was powered by an increase in its business segment, which added 197K customers.  Net subscriber addition was powered by an increase in its business segment, which added 197K customers.  While its Q3 revenue & profit beat estimates, subscriber loss remains an overhang as analysts said iPhone upgrades in the holiday season are expected to be weaker.  Net income fell to $5B, prompting the company to announce a plan to reduce annual costs of $2-3B by 2025.  The stock fell 1.67.
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Verizon profit declines as pricier plans result in subscriber loss

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart, the 2nd known call since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late Feb.  Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig Gen Pat Ryder said Austin spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu by phone.  Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he spoke with Austin in a separate call.  Reznikov said the 2 discussed additional air defense systems in upcoming US security assistance packages for Ukraine's fight.  “Secretary Austin emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid the ongoing war against Ukraine,” according to the Pentagon.  The call comes as the war enters its 9th month & as Ukraine continues a stunning counteroffensive to retake more of Russian-occupied territory in the east & south.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken traded barbs last month with his Russian counterpart during a US Security Council meeting.  Blinken cited credible reports of Russian forces committing war crimes in Ukraine.  He detailed the grisly discovery of mass graves in the Ukrainian cities of Izyum & Bucha.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied the allegations and placed the blame for civilian deaths on Ukraine.  He also blamed the US, France & Germany for not holding Ukraine accountable for the alleged atrocities.  In recent days, Moscow has upped the ante with several devastating missile & drone strikes against what Kyiv said were civilian targets & critical infrastructure such as energy facilities.  Ukraine has also accused Russia of using Iranian drones in its widespread & indiscriminate attacks.  Tehran & Moscow have repeatedly denied the alleged arms transfers.  Following the fresh drone strikes, the US, Britain & France raised the implications of such Iranian arms transfers to Russia in a closed-door UN Security Council meeting.

U.S. Defense secretary speaks with Russian counterpart as war in Ukraine enters ninth month

Rep lawmakers are gearing up to extend key parts of former Pres Trump's tax overhaul if they win control of Congress during the pivotal midterm elections.  With inflation running near the highest level in 40 years, Dems are widely expected to lose their razor-thin majority in the House & possibly the Senate too in Nov.  Should the GOP regain control of both chambers of Congress, they have indicated that a top economic priority would be enshrining key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act into law.  That $1.2T tax overhaul – the largest since Ronald Reagan occupied the Oval Office – slashed the top individual tax rate to 37% until 2025 & permanently cut the corp tax rate from 35% to 21%.  House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy confirmed that Reps want to "lock in those tax cuts that we got, that we've got to pass in the next couple of years to make that happen as well."  Although Pres Biden campaigned on reversing the bulk of Trump's tax policies, including raising the corp minimum tax to 28%,  Dems have repeatedly failed to do so amid resistance from Sen Kyrsten Sinema in the 50-50 Senate.  Reps hope that by pushing hard to advance the tax cuts for wealthy earners if they control the House & the Senate, they could put Biden into a bind by forcing him to choose between handing them a major legislative victory ahead of the 2024 presidential election, or vetoing the tax cuts & committing to higher taxes for Ms of Americans in a time of economic uncertainty.

Republicans eye possible extension of Trump tax cuts after midterm elections

Gold finished higher, giving up early losses that brought prices to their lowest intraday level in 2½ years as investors continued to look for hints on Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.  Gold futures for Dec rose $19 (1.2%) to settle at $1656 per ounce after touching a low at $1621, the lowest intraday level for a most-active contract since Ap 2020.  For the week, prices rose nearly 0.5%.  Gold was under pressure & lacking much interest, but snapped back quickly & sharply early today after speculation a 75 basis point interest-rate increase in Nov by the Federal Reserve, might be followed by only 50 basis point rate increase in Dec.  San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly said the central bank needs to start talking about slowing down its rapid pace of recent increases in their benchmark interest rate.  “I think the time is now to start talking about stepping down — the time is now to start planning for stepping down,” Daly said, 

Gold finishes higher, shaking off early losses that pulled prices to a 2½-year low

Oil futures climbed to post a gain for the week, but natural-gas futures fell sharply for the session to end the week more than 20% lower.  Very tight physical market conditions are supportive of futures prices right now.  Natural-gas futures, however, saw prices crash thru technical support from the summer in the $5.40s.  Mild weather forecasts easing demand expectations & rapidly rising inventories have been key bearish influences over the last week.  US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec rose 54¢ (0.6%) to settle at $85.05 a barrel, with prices up 0.5% for the week.  Nov natural gas lost 40¢ (7.5%) to $4.959 per M British thermal units, the lowest finish since Mar 2022 & down 23% for the week.

Oil prices post a weekly gain, but natural-gas futures fall more than 20% for the week

Talk of trimming interest rate hikes & extending tax cuts brought out buyers in droves today.  But that is just talk.  Meanwhile, mortgage rates are around 7% versus 3% a year ago.  That relationship is common for most interest rates which will slow economic growth.  This week Dow was up a very big 1440 & went over $31K.

Dow Jones Industrials 








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