Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Markets fall as concern over a slowing economy weighs on stocks

Dow retreated 198, declines over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 63.  The MLP index remained down 2+ to the 223s & the REIT index remained even in the 369s.  Junk bond funds continued to be sold & Treasuries saw heavy buying which sharply reduced yields.  Oil inched higher but could not reach 81 & gold soared 38 to 2038 (more on both below).

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Ford (F) reported a roughly 10% increase in its quarterly US sales, led by jumps in its critical F-Series pickups & Bronco SUVs.  The automaker sold 476K vehicles during the first 3 months of the year, up 10.1% compared with subdued levels a year earlier due to supply chain problems.  Its namesake brand increased 10.7%, while its Lincoln luxury brand was off 1.1%.  Sales of its trucks rose by nearly 20%, while car sales were up by 5.1% & SUVs increased by less than 1%.  Sales of EVs increased by 41%.  However, they only amounted to less than 11K vehicles (2.3%) of its quarterly sales.  Sales of the electric F-150 Lightning totaled 4291 pickups during the qtr, which included several weeks of downtime after a vehicle caught fire.  Ford said that it is still on track to expand production of the electric pickup at a Michigan plant to an annual production run rate of 150K this year.  Sales of 170K F-Series pickups were up about 21% compared with a year earlier.  Other notable sales increases included its Bronco SUV, up nearly 38%; its Explorer SUV, up 36% & its Expedition, which saw its sales nearly double.  “Ford is off to a fast start to the year. Ford’s sales growth and investments are a direct result of strong customer demand across our truck, SUV, and electric vehicle segments,” Andrew Frick, Ford VP of sales distribution & trucks, said.  The stock went up 4¢.
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Ford’s first-quarter sales increase 10.1% on improved F-Series truck production

Japan has begun purchasing Russian crude oil above the $60-a-barrel cap, breaking with Western allies thanks to an exception authorized by the US.  As many European nations weaned themselves off Russian oil in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Japan stepped up its purchase of Russian natural gas.  Japan has almost none of its own fossil fuels, heavily relying on imports for much of its energy needs.  Some analysts believe this dependency heavily influenced Japan's hesitancy to fully back Ukraine against Russia.  To date, Japan is the only Group of Seven members not to have supplied Ukraine with lethal weapons.  Despite the concession, Russian natural-gas imports to Japan are relatively small, accounting for around one-tenth of Japan's supply & a fraction of Russia’s output.  Most of what Russia exports to Japan comes from the Sakhalin-2 project in Russia's Far East.  The G7 nations & Australia agreed to a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil to reduce Russia's income from selling oil while preventing a spike in global oil prices.  The price cap allowed non-EU countries to continue importing Russian crude oil but prohibited shipping, insurance & re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.  The nations granted an exception to the $60-a-barrel cap thru Sep for oil purchased by Japan.  And in the first 2 months of this year, Japan bought around 748K barrels of Russian oil for approximately $70 a barrel.

Japan has begun buying Russian oil above price cap, breaking with US allies

US manufacturing activity slumped in Mar to the lowest level in nearly 3 years as new orders plunged, & analysts said activity could decline further due to tighter credit conditions.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey showed all subcomponents of its manufacturing PMI below the 50 threshold for the first time since 2009.  Some economists said this suggested a recession was around the corner, while others said much would depend on the services sector, whose PMI remains consistent with a growing economy.  The survey made no direct comment on recent financial markets turmoil.  Makers of miscellaneous products said they were "closely monitoring the global banking situation" but there were no impacts "at this time."  Federal Reserve rate hikes to fight inflation have raised borrowing costs & cooled demand for goods.  "Manufacturing is pulling back, but the service sector was still chugging along in February," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.  "As long as it remains well above 50 when reported on Wednesday, the broad economy should be just fine. Nevertheless, the health of manufacturing is related to the health of the overall economy."

US manufacturing near three-year low; casts a shadow

Gold prices settled higher, with prices inching closer to record highs as the $ & Treasury yields weakened after data from the Labor Dept revealed that job openings fell to a 21-month low.  The Jun gold contract climbed $37 (1.9%) to settle at $2038 an ounce, with prices for the most-active contract settling at their highest since Mar 8, 2022.  Prices traded closer to the all-time, most-active contract settlement high of $2069 an ounce from Aug 6, 2020.  The ICE US Dollar index is on the verge of putting in a major top & bond yields are also putting in a top.  The ICE US Dollar index fell 0.5% to 101.62 today, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell nearly 7 basis points to 3.355% after data showing US job openings fell to 9.9M in Feb, from a revised 10.6M in Jan.  A lower $ & Treasury yields all point to the Federal Reserve taking a pause (at least) on the inflation fight as they deal with the banking situation, which is stable, but not over.  Weakness in the $ tends to decrease the opportunity costs for investors considering $-priced gold as idh ecooomyan option versus other perceived havens.  Meanwhile, lower yields should raise the prospects for gold against gov bonds.

Gold settles higher, less than 2% below its record-high settlement

US oil futures settled higher for a 4th session in a row, at their highest since Jan, with prices continuing to find support after Sun's surprise OPEC+ decision to cut production by more than 1M barrels a day, on top of output reductions already in place.  The announced cuts will turn the market to a deficit in the 2nd half but for now, inventories are still flush with oil.  May West Texas Intermediate crude rose 29¢ to settle at $80.71 a barrel.  The settlement was the highest since Jan 26.

U.S. Oil Futures Settle At Their Highest Since January

Nervous investors were in command today & they bought a lot of gold & Treasuries.  High interest rates & a sluggish economy were getting a lot of attention.  Sadly, there are no quick fixes to these problems.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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