Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Markets slide while gold is in strong demand

Dow went up 44, decliners over advamcers 5-2 & NAZ dropped 160.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 223s & the REIT index remained in the 369s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries saw more buying, reducing yields again.  Oil was fractionally lower nearing 80 following its recent rise & gold stalled, down 2 to 2036 (but still elevated).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Private sector hiring decelerated in Mar, flashing another potential sign that US economic growth is heading for a sharp slowdown or recession, payroll processing firm ADP reported.  Company payrolls rose by just 145K for the month, down from an upwardly revised 261K in Feb & below the estimate for 210K.  That took Q1 hiring to an average of just 175K jobs a month, down from 216K in the 4th qtr and a sharp reduction from the average of 397K in the Q1-2022.  “Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing,” said ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson.  “Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down.”  Annual pay rose at a 6.9% rate in Mar, down from 7.2% in Feb, according to the firm's calculations.  Job growth was almost evenly split between services & goods-producing firms, an unusual occurrence.  The US economy is heavily services-oriented, so that sector generally produces much stronger hiring gains.  This data showed a gain of 75K in services & 70K in goods producers.  Last month, though, financial activities lost 51K jobs & professional & business services fell by 46K.  Manufacturing also saw a decline of 30K.  On the plus side, leisure & hospitality added another 98K workers, trade, transportation & utilities grew by 56K & construction rose by 53K.  Natural resources & mining also showed a gain, up 47K, while education & health services added 17K.  From a size standpoint, companies with fewer than 50 workers led with 101K, a reversal from recent months in which small business saw limited job growth.

Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations: ADP

Treasury yields fell as traders sorted through recent readings on the labor market to gauge the possibility of a recession in the months ahead.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped nearly 5 basis points to 3.289%, while the yield on the 2-year note fell 13 basis points to 3.702%.  Yields move inversely to prices.  Yields were higher before the ADP private payrolls report came in below expectations.  That report comes after job openings data released yesterday showed vacancies fell below 10M in Feb for the first time in nearly 2 years, pressuring Treasury yields as investors considered whether the information could deter the Fed from further rate hikes.  The ISM Services index also showed slower-than-expected growth in Mar, according to a report, adding to the market's recession worries.  Future monetary policy moves remain in focus, with the Federal Reserve continuing to tackle inflation & the aftermath of banking collapses that caused turmoil in the bond markets in recent weeks.  The Fed is next scheduled to meet in early May, when the policy rate will likely rise by a further 25 basis points, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Treasury yields fall as investors weigh potential for weaker labor market

Eli Lilly's (LLY) experimental Alzheimer's drug lowered levels of brain plaque in patients who are in the earliest stages of the devastating disease, initial data shows.  A higher dose of the up-&-coming treatment, remternetug, had a larger effect on clearing amyloid plaque, according to early clinical trial data the company presented during a conference in Sweden.  Amyloid is a protein that builds up on the brain in Alzheimer's patients & disrupts cell function.  Researchers have argued that accumulation of amyloid plaque is a crucial first step toward the cognitive decline observed in Alzheimer's disease.  The early data comes as LLY continues its decades-long bid to bring an Alzheimer's drug to the market. Remternetug follows another drug called donanemab & failed treatment solanezumab.  Remternetug & donanemab target plaque deposited on the brain, while solanezumab focused on the kind that floats in brain fluid.  A phase 2 trial of donanemab found 40% of participants treated with the drug achieved amyloid clearance as early as 6 months, or around 182 days, after starting the treatment.  An estimated 6.7M Americans age 65 & older are living with Alzheimer's, according to the Alzheimer's Association.  By 2050, that group is projected to rise to almost 13M.  The stock jumped 8.96 (2½%).
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Eli Lilly says experimental Alzheimer’s drug reduces brain plaque in early study

The bulls are having a difficult time making the case for buying stocks.  Many investors are heading for gold & Treasuries (especially short term Treasuries).

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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