Markets hesitate after the long rally

Dow crawled up 103 with a little buying into the close, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ was off 29.  The MLP index gained 1+ to go over 120 & the REIT index  edged up 1+ to the 379s.  Junk bond funds traded higher & Treasuries had limited buying, lowering yields.  Oil finished in the high 81s (a 3+ monthly high) & gold added 4 to 2004 (more on both below).

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By many measures, consumers who have been squeezed by higher prices should be experiencing some relief.  Recent releases show that, at least compared with the soaring inflation of a year ago, prices have begun to ease.  The consumer price index, which measures inflation, increased 3% from a year ago, which is the lowest level since Mar 2021, while the personal consumption expenditures price index also notched the lowest annual level in more than 2 years.  And yet, as of Jun, 61% of adults still say they are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report, unchanged from a year ago.  Lower-income workers have been the hardest hit by price spikes, particularly for food & other staples, since those expenses account for a bigger share of the budget, studies show.  Roughly ¾ of consumers earning less than $50K annually & 65% of those earning $50-100K were living paycheck to paycheck in Jun, based on LendingClub's numbers.  Fewer top earners have been struggling to make ends meet.  Of those earning $100K or more, only 45% reported living paycheck to paycheck.  52% of adults, including high earners, said they have felt more financially stressed since before the Covid pandemic began in 2020, according to a separate CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in Mar — largely due to inflation, rising interest rates & a lack of savings.  That survey found that 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.  Still, more than ½ of all US consumers struggle to afford their day-to-day lifestyle, which is forcing some to rely more on savings, making them financially vulnerable. “Budgets are still very stretched and, for a lot of households, credit cards are filling the gap,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst. “People aren’t financing purchases at 20% because they have other options,” he added.  “They're doing that because it's their only option.”

61% of Americans say they are living paycheck to paycheck even as inflation cools

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) said it launched mid-stage clinical trials to test at least 4 treatments, including Pfizer's (PFE) antiviral Covid-19 pill Paxlovid, as potential therapies for long Covid.  There is no proven treatment for the conditio, which refers to symptoms that continue or develop in the weeks or months following an initial Covid infection.  It affects an estimated 23M Americans.  The agency will test medical treatments like a web-based brain training program called BrainHQ & a device that uses a small electric current to stimulate brain activity.  NIH expects to launch additional clinical trials to test at least 7 more treatments “in the coming months.”  The stock was off 1¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

NIH to test Pfizer’s Paxlovid, other treatments as potential long Covid therapies

Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, is preparing to unveil its next generation of devices this fall & the high-end iPhone 15 models will reportedly feature some major changes.  The company has used its proprietary Lightning charger for iPhones since 2012, but the iPhone 15 & iPhone 15 Plus will be compatible with USB-C charging.  The iPhone 15 Pro & Pro Max models will feature titanium edges instead of stainless steel & that may help make those phones a bit lighter.  USB-C is used by most modern gadgets, from Android phones & tablets to most of Apple's iPads & some of Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle eReaders.  It means you'll be able to carry one charger that will work with all of your devices.  Ministers from EU member states gave final approval to a common charger law late last year, which means that by 2024, electronic devices, including mobile phones & tablets, will need to support USB-C charging.  In other words, AAPL's Lightning charger will no longer cut it in some markets.  “Obviously we’ll have to comply,” Greg Joswiak, AAPL's senior VP of worldwide marketing, said.  AAPL is also considering raising the price of its high-end iPhone Pros.  Since 2019, the company has sold a high-end iPhone Pro that starts in the US at $999 & a Max model with a bigger screen that starts at $1099.  The stock was up 62¢.
If you would like to learn more about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro will reportedly feature new charging port, titanium edges

Gold futures settled higher amid optimism that major central banks are approaching the end of tightening cycles.  Data showed on Fri that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge slowed to a 2-year low in Jun, easing concerns about the outlook for interest rates.  A firm $ limited the yellow metal's upside.  The $ index, after weakness in the AM, it recovered to 101.82, gaining nearly 0.2%.  Gold futures for Dec ended higher by $9 at $2009

' an ounce.  Gold prices are attempting a bullish break out as optimism grows that the major central banks are all approaching the end of their tightening cycles.  The Fed is waiting on the data, but they might be done if inflation plays nice.  Golds' rally could extend if growth prospects turn sour.

Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher

US crude futures finish the day 1.5% higher at a 15-week-high $81.80 a barrel & end Jul with a 16% monthly rise, the largest one-month increase since Jan 2022's 17% climb.  Crude prices are finishing a solid month on a high note as demand prospects remain impressive & no one doubts that OPEC+ will keep this market tight.  Most of the major central banks appear at the tail end of their tightening cycles.  The ace up the sleeve of oil bulls is that the energy market is still awaiting massive stimulus from China that should boost global growth prospects.

WTI Oil Rises 16% in July, Largest 1-Month Rise Since January 2022

As shown below, stocks have had a very strong run in recent months.  The main problem is that the stock market is overbought.  Dow rose an impressive 1100 in Jul.  At the same time, interest rates have been raised to new highs which haven't been seen in years.  The stock market needs a rest until supporting economic data can catch up.          

Dow Jones Industrials