Friday, July 21, 2023

Markets hesitate after the recent rally

Dow edged up only 2 due to profit taking, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ slid back 30.  The MLP index was steady in the 237s & the REIT index rose 2 to the 284s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries still had modest buying which lowered yields.  Oil added about 1+ to almost 77 & gold was off 6 to 1964 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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American Express (AXP), a Dow stock, said it took in a record $15.1B in revenue over the 2nd qtr as consumers spent more on its credit cards.  EPS was $2.89 in the qtr, beating expectations of $2.81.  "Card member spending hit another all-time high over the quarter, rising 8% on an adjusted basis," CEO Stephen Squeri said.  "Travel and entertainment spending remained strong across customer categories and geographies, growing 14% on an adjusted basis. We also saw reservations on our restaurant platform reach a quarterly high and bookings through our consumer travel business reach their highest levels since before the pandemic."  The company is also reaffirming its full-year 2023 guidance for EPS of $11.00-11.40 with revenue growth of 15-17%.  "Our base is changing in terms of more Millennials and Gen Z who will grow with us," Squeri said.  "And as the economy gets better, we expect the spending to pick up. So we feel really confident."  Rising borrowing costs led AXP to raise its provisions for credit losses to $1.2B from $410M a year ago as it braced for potential defaults in debt repayments.  The increase reflected higher net write-offs & a net reserve build of $327M, compared with a net reserve build of $58M in 2022.  The stock fell 6¢.
If you would like to learn more about AXP,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AXP_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

American Express reports record spending: ‘We feel really confident’

Netflix (NFLX) said that its quarterly revenue & subscriptions rose, as efforts to curb password sharing took hold.  It added 5.9M customers during Q2 amid its broader crackdown on password sharing in the US.  The company reported revenue of $8.19B, up 3% from $7.97B in the prior-year period.  Net income of $1.49B climbed from $1.44B in the year-ago qtr.  NFLX expects a boost in revenue in H2 as it begins “to see the full benefits of paid sharing plus the steady growth in our ad-supported plan.”  It forecasts revenue of $8.5B, up 7% year over year, for Q3 & expects revenue growth with more average paid memberships.  The company also anticipates paid net subscriber additions in will be similar to Q2.  Meanwhile, NFLX expects revenue growth in Q4 to “accelerate more substantially” as the efforts to curb password sharing gain steam & as advertising revenue grows.  The stock sank 9.92.
If you would like to learn more about NFLX,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/NFLX_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Netflix earnings showcase strength as the rest of the media industry struggles

Airlines cargo revenue is slumping.  That’s a sign of good news for travel recovery.  Airlines this month each reported year-over-year declines of about 40% in their 2nd-qtr cargo revenue.  Meanwhile, airlines are reporting record revenue, if not earnings, thanks to the rebound in travel demand.  That means the business impact of cargo, which once helped prop up airlines' revenue during the Covid pandemic travel plunge, has faded.  Flying goods around the world was a lifeline for passenger carriers during the pandemic when bookings dried up & travel restrictions forced airlines to slash service abroad.  Normally about ½ the world’s air cargo flies in the bellies of passenger planes.  That reduced cargo capacity during the pandemic helped drive shipping rates up to records, along with strong e-commerce demand, supply chain problems & port congestion.  But travel demand has roared back, particularly for intl trips, as customers rush to take vacations abroad that they put off in recent years.  The renewed demand has prompted airlines to add back service.  US-Europe flights alone are expected to be the highest in 5 years.  The added passenger capacity also boosts the world's supply of space to fly cargo, at the same time that demand for air cargo is waning.  The Baltic Air Freight Index, which tracks worldwide air cargo rates, is down 47% from a year earlier.  In May, the latest available data, the Intl Air Transport Association, said air cargo capacity was up nearly 15% from the same month of 2022 while demand dropped 5%.  Airlines are planning to expand flights this year, too, to capitalize on strong intl travel demand, a trend that could further drive down cargo revenue.

Airline cargo revenue is cratering. Here’s why that’s actually good news

Gold futures settled lower, holding onto a slight gain for the week.  Gold traders have a lot of news to follow next week & that could support a deeper pullback if the Federal Reserve keeps optionality for more tightening on the table, & if earnings continue to mostly suggest the resilience of the US economy remains.  Gold for Aug settled at $1966 an ounce, down $4.  For the week, prices based on the most-active contract edged up 0.1%.

Gold Futures End Lower for The Session, Post a Slight Gain for The Week

Oil futures gained, with US prices for the commodity up more than 2% for the week.  Oil prices have been relishing the prospects that Federal Reserve rate hikes may soon come to an end, while taking advantage of the $'s recent drop.  The fundamental picture has also been supported by supply cuts out of Saudi Arabia & Russia, although China's rocky recovery still muddies oil's outlook.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep delivery climbed $1.42, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.07 a barrel, with prices based on the front-month contract up 2.3 % for the week,

Oil Futures Settle More Than 2% Higher for The Week

Today traders finally took profits.  Next week should be exciting with the Fed meeting.  Everybody is anxious to hear what they have to say.   For the week Dow rose over 700.

Dow Jones Industrials 







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