Markets hesitate on concerns the November rally could be overdone

Dow finished up 83, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ rose 40.  The MLP index stayed in the 253s & the REIT index added 2+, taking it lover 360.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were purchased which lowered yields.  Oil bounced back 1+ to the 76s & gold advanced 30 to 2042 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Amazon (AMZN) has announced that its Black Friday & Cyber Monday holiday shopping event that kicked off around a week before Thanksgiving was its "biggest ever" compared to the same 11-day period in previous years.  The e-commerce giant said, "Customers around the world purchased more than one billion items on Amazon, with shoppers saving nearly 70% more on Amazon during the 11 days of deals compared to the same period last year," ending on Cyber Monday.  AMZN also said more than 500M of those items were sold by independent sellers, "most of which are small and medium-sized businesses."  "There are many customers who are still checking off their shopping lists, and we are excited to announce that we will have millions more deals on a wide selection of products to come, with new deals dropping every day through December 24, along with fast, convenient delivery options," said Doug Herrington, CEO of Worldwide Amazon Stores.  The sales figures come as online shoppers who took advantage of Black Friday spent enough with retailers to set a new record this year, according to Adobe Analytics.  The company said online Black Friday shopping sales came in at $9.8B in 2023 & it climbed 7.5% from the total that Black Friday online shoppers forked over in 2022, according to Adobe Analytics.  The stock fell 70¢.

Amazon says Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales event was its 'biggest ever'

Shoppers kicked off the holiday season with a bang, as a record 200.4M people hit stores & searched websites for gifts from Thanksgiving Day thru Cyber Monday, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).  The turnout marks an all-time high since the major trade group & Prosper Insights & Analytics began tracking total in-store & online traffic in 2017.  It topped last year's figure of 196.7M shoppers & NRF's forecast for 182M people during the 5-day weekend.  The number of people shopping online rose to 134.2M this year, up from 130.2M a year ago.  Consumers who shopped at stores fell slightly, from 122.7M people in 2022 to 121.4M people this year.  The trade group did not estimate total spending, but said shoppers shelled out an average of $321.41 on holiday-related purchases over the weekend.  That’s roughly in line with the $325.44 average last year.  But the number is not adjusted for inflation.  NRF CEO Matt Shay said the large turnout “speaks to the way consumers are feeling, but also the deals that were out there.”  He said other factors including the weather worked in retailers' favor.  Cooler temperatures, which many parts of the country had this weekend, can help motivate shoppers to spring for seasonal items like jackets, sweaters & boots.  As of Thanksgiving weekend, consumers said they were about halfway done with their holiday shopping, according to the results.  NRF's survey of 3498 adult consumers was conducted Nov 22-26.   Yet it is too soon to predict how the rest of the peak retail season may play out.  Strength in early shopping could reflect shoppers' hunger for good deals rather than their desire to spend.  It could also show a reversion to a pre-pandemic pattern of holiday shopping, when customers concentrated their spending during peak times like Black Friday sales events & the final days before Christmas.  Retailers struck a cautious note about the season when reporting earnings earlier this month. 

Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars, as consumers seek bargains

US consumer confidence rose in Nov after 3 straight monthly declines, with Americans planning big-ticket purchases like motor vehicles & houses over the next 6 months even as they continued to fret over higher prices & interest rates.  Despite the rebound in morale, which was driven by an improvement in expectations, about 2/3 of consumers surveyed this month still perceived a recession to be "somewhat" or "very likely" to happen over the next year, the survey from the Conference Board showed.  Most economists are, however, not forecasting a recession, but rather a period of very slow growth.  Those expectations were strengthened by recent inflation-friendly data, including a moderation in job gains in Oct, that have led financial markets to believe that the Federal Reserve was probably done raising interest rates this cycle.  "Overall, this data supports the idea of slower growth at the moment but the prospect of continued growth into next year," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.  The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in Oct.  The forecast called for the index dipping to 101.0.  The improvement in confidence was concentrated mostly among households aged 55 & up.   Consumers in the 35-54 age group were less optimistic about their prospects.  The survey's present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business & labor market conditions, edged down to 138.2 from 138.6 in Oct.  Its expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business & labor market conditions, rose to 77.8 from 72.7.  It remains below 80, a level historically associated with a recession within the next year.  "General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.  "Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates."  Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.7% from 5.9% in Oct, likely reflecting news this month that inflation subsided in Oct.  The share of consumers in the Conference Board survey expecting higher interest rates was the smallest since Apr 2021, while the proportion anticipating lower borrowing costs was the largest in nearly 3 years.  The cooling inflation backdrop has left financial markets anticipating a rate cut from the Fed in mid-2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

US consumer confidence rises in November

Gold closed at the highest in more than a year as the $ fell to the lowest in 3 months & treasury yields fell following dovish comments from a Federal Reserve official.  Gold for Feb delivery closed up $27 to $2060 per ounce.  The rise comes as the $ continues to depreciate, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.38 points to 102.8, the lowest since Aug 10.  The $ has weakened amid expectations the Federal Reserve is done with raising interest rates after a series of weaker than expected economic reports showed the central bank has successfully slowed the economy to bring down inflation.  Comments from Christopher Waller, a voting member of the Fed's policy committee, that the central bank could lower interest rates if inflation continues to decline, helped push the currency lower.  Treasury yields also eased, lowering the carrying cost of owning gold.  The 2-year note was last seen down 10.8 basis points to 4.747%, while the 10-year note was paying 4.353%, down 3.9 basis points.

Gold Closes at the Highest in More than a Year as the Dollar and Yields Weaken

Oil snapped a 3-session losing streak as OPEC+ members continued negotiations over output levels & a Federal Reserve official signaled the central bank’s rate-hiking campaign may be complete.  West Texas Intermediate rose 2.2% to settle above $76 as the production cartel worked to resolve the deadlock over oil-output quotas for some African nations.  The stalemate may not be resolved before the group’s scheduled meeting, possibly requiring further delay, one delegate said.  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in prepared remarks that he’s “increasingly confident” that monetary policy is tight enough to reduce inflation.  The $ also weakened after Waller's comments, making commodities priced in the currency more appealing.  Crude futures have moved into a broad holding pattern ahead of the OPEC+ meeting planned for Thurs, with traders awaiting a decision on next year's output levels.  Among the particular hurdles are production quotas for African members Nigeria & Angola, which have frequently underproduced in recent years.  WTI for Jan increased 2.1% to settle at $76.41 a barrel & Brent for Jan rose 2.1% to settle at $81.68 a barrel.

Oil Rises as Traders Parse OPEC+ Signals, Fed’s Rate Comments

Dow rallied during midday trading, but lost much those gains in the PM.  Data is coming in mixed.  After its rally of about 3000 in the last 30 days, stocks need time to rest.  Meanwhile the record high for gold futures is $2078.80.

Dow Jones Industrials