Dow dropped 39, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ crawled up 10. The MLP index retreated 3+ to the 245s & the REIT index added 1+ to 341. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries had some buying which reduced yields. Oil fell 1+ to the 75s & gold sank 19 to 1954 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The Cleveland Federal Reserve launched a search for its new leader, after current Pres Loretta Mester retires in mid-2024. Often one of the central bank's bigger proponents for tighter monetary policy, Mester, 65, will reach mandatory retirement as she will have served in her current position for 10 years come Jun of next year. A committee comprised of Cleveland Fed board members will conduct the search. The vacancy comes at a time when the Fed has pushed for greater diversity among its governing body. Heidi Gartland, deputy chair of the district's board, will lead the effort to replace Mester. “President Mester’s strong leadership over the past decade has positioned the Cleveland Fed as an important resource to the community and the nation,” Gartland said. “We are committed to finding a new leader who can ensure the Bank continues to meet the high standard that President Mester has set.” Whoever leads the Cleveland Fed will get a vote in 2024 on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. In her most recent speech, Mester said she thinks the Fed may need another interest rate hike before the end of the year as it seeks to get the inflation rate back to 2%.
Cleveland Fed launches search for new leader after Mester leaves
½ of Americans believe their financial outlook has deteriorated since the 2020 election, a blow to Pres Biden as he attempts to center his re-election campaign around the eponymous "Bidenomics." A new survey published by Bankrate shows that 50% of Americans say their financial situation has gotten worse since the 2020 presidential election. By comparison, just 21% think their financial situation has improved, while 26% believe it is unchanged. "The plight of the economy over the next 12 months may help to dictate whether it was wise, or not, for President Biden to trumpet the branding of ‘Bidenomics,'" said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. Among Americans who are feeling pessimistic about their financial outlook, about ½ – 45% – blame Biden & his economic policies. Another 35% think that Congress is responsible, while 27% identified the Federal Reserve as the culprit. Along party lines, Reps are twice as likely as Dems to say their personal financial situation has worsened over the past 3 years, at a respective 67% & 31%. But a key demographic, independent voters, have also expressed discontent over their finances, with 59% saying their situation has deteriorated since 2020. The White House has lauded a mostly steady year-long decline in inflation, but most economists agree that is due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike campaign & the resolution of supply chain disruptions, not the pres' economic agenda. Among Americans who say their financial situation has improved, just 1/3 credit Biden. More than ½ of those respondents said that neither Biden, Congress nor the Federal Reserve have helped their financial situation to improve. "With less than a year before Americans will begin casting ballots, the issue of the economy will be key," Hamrick said. "Given sensitivity about the cost of living, whether inflation improves, or doesn’t, between now and the election will take on added importance. Elevated interest rates also play into this equation. There might not be much relief on that front given the Federal Reserve’s guidance on interest rates." While inflation has fallen from the highs of mid-2022, from 9.1% to 3.7%, many families have yet to see material relief. The consumer price index is still running well above the typical pre-pandemic rate, and the cost of necessities like food, gasoline, rent & child care remain far more expensive than they were just one year ago. Chronically high prices are forcing Americans to spend about $709 more per month than they did 2 years ago, according to a recent estimate from Moody's Analytics. As they spend more on everyday goods, Americans are burning thru their savings & are increasingly turning to credit cards to cover those basic expenses.
Staggering number of Americans believe they are worse off under Biden administration
The Food & Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's (LLY) blockbuster drug tirzepatide for weight loss, paving the way for even wider use of the treatment in the US. The active ingredient in the drug, tirzepatide, has already been approved for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes under the name Mounjaro since May 2022. But
the FDA'’s new approval means adults who have obesity or are overweight
with at least one weight-related condition can use the drug, which will
be marketed as Zepbound, for chronic weight management. Zepbound
should be available in the US by the end of the year & will carry a
list price of about $1060 for a month's supply. Before today's approval, many patients had used tirzepatide
off-label for weight loss, adding to a frenzy of demand for treatments
that can help patients shed pounds, such as Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic. All 3 drugs have faced supply constraints for months due to soaring demand. The approval also comes as obesity affects an estimated 650M adults globally & roughly 40% of the adult population in the US. The stock jumped 20+ to 620.
If you would like to learn more about LLY, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LLY_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7
FDA approves Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide for weight loss, paving way for wider use of blockbuster drug
Gold declined for a 3rd day as traders assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials for cues on the central bank's interest-rate path. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank must be willing to think beyond the complex mathematical simulations it traditionally uses in forecasting. He didn't comment on the outlook for interest rates or the broader economy. Gold for Dec was down 8% to $1952 per ounce.
Gold Extends Drop as Traders Assess Rate Path From Fedspeak
Oil futures fell for a 2nd straight session, with US prices ending at their lowest since mid-Jul. The commodity was hammered by demand concerns after the American Petroleum Institute reported a huge rise in crude inventories last week. Sources said the trade group reported a weekly increase of 11.9M barrels. The sharp jump in inventories could be the product of various forces, with demand fluctuations on the list. Nevertheless, this report has added more fears around the demand side of the equation. Dec West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.04 (2.6%) to settle at $75.33 a barrel, the lowest front-month contract finish since Jul 17.
U.S. oil prices settle at their lowest since mid-July
The Dow's 7 day winning streak came to an end. It began the day in the black followed by selling for most of the session. Some blame the decline on weaker-than-expected EPS in the 3rd qtr. Oil fell to more than 2 year lows. Additionally the market was overbought. Whatever, the news has been mediocre at best & may stay that way for awhile.Dow Jones Industrials
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