Monday, December 2, 2024

Markets wobble while Nasdaq rises to a new record

Dow was off 128, decliners over advancers about 5-4 & NAZ rose 185.  The MLP index gave back 6+ to the 311s & the REIT index dropped 6+ to 430.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries saw limited buying which allowed yields to creep higher.  Oil continued fractionally higher in the 68s & gold retreated 18 to 2662 (more below on both ).

Dow Jones Industrials 

A "record number" of flights traveled across the US during Thanksgiving week this year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) says.  Between Sun-Thur, Nov 28, the FAA says it "safely moved more than 232K flights" in the US, including 52K alone on Tues.  A total of 12.1M people passed thru Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints during that timeframe, including more than 2.7M the day before Thanksgiving.  That's an increase from the 11.7M passengers that the TSA recorded traveling during the same 5-day period last year.  "To help with East Coast traffic volume, the FAA used military airspace off the Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico that the military released for commercial plane use," the FAA said.  "Controllers implemented traffic management initiatives to help move air traffic expeditiously during bad weather in the Northeast and West Coast, and snow in the Rockies," it continued.  "Despite the record numbers, only 0.3 percent of flights were cancelled, and delays were a record low of 1.2 percent of flights," the FAA added.

FAA reports 'record number' of Thanksgiving week flights

Intel (INTC), a Dow company, ousted CEO Pat Gelsinger over the weekend, capping a tumultuous nearly 4-year tenure at what was America's leading semiconductor company before its stock price & market share collapsed.  The company announced Gelsinger's resignation today, came after a contentious board meeting last week over his perceived failure to respond to Nvidia's (NVDA) competitive edge & a lack of confidence in Gelsinger's turnaround plans.  CFO David Zinsner & INTC products CEO MJ Holthaus were named interim co-CEOs.  Longtime board member Frank Yeary will serve as interim exec chair.  “We are working to create a leaner, simpler, more agile INTC,” Yeary said.  Yeary was a key driver in Gelsinger's.  Yeary, INTC's longest-serving board member, will now have to preside over yet another CEO search process.  Gelsinger, 63, had an illustrious career at INTC, rising to become the company's first chief technical officer at the turn of the century, before he took a senior role at EMC.  Gelsinger returned to the company from VMware, where he was chief exec, to stabilize INTC in 2021, succeeding then-CEO Bob Swan.  “It has been a challenging year for all of us as we have made tough but necessary decisions to position Intel for the current market dynamics,” Gelsinger said.  INTC stock lost 12¢.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger ousted by board after disastrous performance

Stellantis (STLA) CEO Carlos Tavares has unexpectedly resigned from the automaker amid increasingly “different views” between the exec & the board of directors, the company said.  The world's 4th-largest carmaker said its board accepted Tavares' resignation yesterday & his departure was effective immediately.  Jeep-maker STLA said that its process to appoint a new CEO is “well under way” & that it expects to conclude the search during the first ½ of next year.  Until then, the company said it will establish a new interim exec committee led by Chair John Elkann.  “Stellantis’ success since its creation has been rooted in a perfect alignment between the reference shareholders, the Board and the CEO. However, in recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the Board and the CEO coming to today’s decision,” Henri de Castries, its senior independent director said.  STLA on Sun reconfirmed its previously lowered guidance for the year that included an adjusted operating income margin of 5.5% - 7% & industrial free cash flow between minus €5B ($5.3B) to minus €10B.  STLA stock fell 84¢.

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares resigns amid problems in U.S., falling sales

Gold traded lower as the $ climbed on rising expectations the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates when the central bank's policy committee meets later this month.  Gold for Feb was last seen down $21 to $2659 per ounce.  The precious metal has been mostly rangebound since correcting from a record high of $2800 on Oct 30, as the $ surged following the US election & inflation remains stuck above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.  Gold slipped as the $ rose overnight, highlighting its current rangebound behavior while we await fresh US economic data input & guidance on the pace & timing of additional US rate cuts.  The US Oct personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was last week reported to have risen at a 2.3% annualized rate, up from 2.1% in Sep.  The rise, as well as potential economic turmoil from the incoming Trump Administration in Jan, has some analysts expecting the Fed will stand pat at the Dec 18 end of the meeting the FOMC.  The $ rose early, with the ICE dollar index last seen up 0.76 points to 106.50.  Treasury yields also rose, with the US 2-year note last seen paying 4.202%, up 4.3 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note up 1.8 points to 4.193%.

Gold Trading Lower, Remains Rangebound, as Dollar and Yields Climb

Crude oil prices have started to rise as tensions mount ahead of the most important OPEC+ meeting before 2025, which will be held on Thurs.  Ahead of the meeting, Iranian official Afshin Javan made an ominous statement by issuing an opinion piece that blamed OPEC+ for the current low prices.  The main point of the opinion piece was that OPEC+ had kept oil prices high for too long, funding its competitors to boost cheaper alternatives.  The debate is heated ahead of Thurs's online meeting where OPEC+ will agree to extend its production curbs.  Crude Oil (WTI) was trading at $68.90 & Brent Crude Oil was at $72.75.

Crude Oil Prices Rise Slightly Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

The S&P 500 & Dow are entering Dec on a high note, following their best monthly gains in a year.  The rally got a boost last month thanks to optimism around Pres-elect Donald Trump's victory.

Markets edge higher for data that could influence interest rates

Dow pulled back 102, decliners over advancers better than 3-2 & NAZ was up 163 to a new record.  The MLP index was off 5+ to the 311s following recent strength & the REIT index dropped 4+ to the 431s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries had selling which raised yields (more below).  Oil crawled higher in the 68s & gold dropped 17 to 2663.

Dow Jones Industrials

Nov was a month to remember for the stock market.  The S&P 500 climbed 5.7%, the Dow jumped 7.5%, marking their best monthly performance this year.  NAZ closed 6.2% higher for its most positive month since May.  Recently, a host of factors have pumped up sentiment for stocks.  The presidential elections concluded with Donald Trump definitively securing the top seat in the White House.  That erased any uncertainty, which investors hate.  Also, Trump 2.8% annualized rate for the 3rd qtr.  Even though gross domestic product is forecast to be 1.3% in the 4th qtr, according to the St Louis Fed forecast, that still denotes an expansion, a stark contrast against nagging fears that a recession would strike the economy.  Slowing growth even has a silver lining.  It gives the Federal Reserve more incentive to cut rates a 2nd time this year at its Dec meeting, which would stimulate economic activity.  Nov's seasonal strength for stocks sent a course of good feelings into investors. 

November was a month to remember for stocks

Treasury yields were higher as investors awaited labor & manufacturing economic data this week.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1 basis point to 4.207% & the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.206%.  On Fri, the 10-year Treasury yield had fallen to its lowest levels since late Oct.  1 basis point equals 0.01% & yields & prices move in opposite directions.  Investors are keenly anticipating labor data which will offer insights about the strength of the US economy.  First, the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for Oct will be published on Wed & provide estimates of the number of job openings, hires, layoffs & quits.  The Nov jobs report will be published on Fri & is expected to show that the US economy added 177K jobs last month, up from 12K jobs in Oct.  Additionally, the unemployment rate is set to rise to 4.2%, up from 4.1% previously.

Treasury yields rise as investors look to key labor data this week

The business activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract, albeit at a softer pace in Nov, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.4 from 46.5 in Oct.  This reading came in better than the market expectation of 47.5.  The Employment Index of the PMI survey edged higher to 48.1 from 44.4 in the same period & the Prices Paid Index retreated to 50.3 from 54.8.  Finally, the New Orders Index improved to 50.4 from 47.1. 

US ISM Manufacturing PMI improves to 48.4 in November vs. 47.5 expected

Dec begins on a high note, having ended Nov with the best monthly gains for stock averages in a year.  The rally got a boost last month thanks to optimism around Pres-elect Trump's victory.  YTD the Dow has gained nearly 20% & tech-heavy NAZ has gained nearly 30%.