Thursday, December 5, 2024

Markets take a breather from the latest records

Dow retreated 248, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 34.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 309s & the REIT index slid back 1 to the 426s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries hardly budged (keeping yields pretty much even).  Oil was flattish in the 68s & gold dropped 22 to 2253 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials 

Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd consecutive week, sending purchase applications higher in further signs of pent-up demand amid an ongoing affordability crisis in the housing market.  Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.69%, the lowest since Oct, from last week's reading of 6.81%.  The average rate on a 30-year loan was 7.03% a year ago.  Many would-be buyers & sellers are holding out to see if rates fall further.  Currently, about 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%, according to a Zillow survey from earlier this year.  "This week, mortgage rates decreased to their lowest level in over a month," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.  "Despite just a modest drop in rates, consumers clearly have responded as purchase demand has noticeably improved. The responsiveness of prospective homebuyers to even small changes in rates illustrates that affordability headwinds persist."  The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.96% from 6.10% last week.  One year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 6.29%.

Mortgage rates fall for second straight week, lowest since October

Dell Technologies (DELL) has deployed tens of thousands of graphics processing units to power artificial intelligence work at Elon Musk’s supercomputer project in Memphis.  “We’ve gone from a blank piece of paper to deploying, at scale, tens of thousands of GPUs in a handful of months,” COO Jeff Clarke said.  “That cluster continues to be built out and we’re distinguishing ourselves.”  Musk's startup AI is developing a massive facility to boost its computing capacity in the race to build AI-powered tools.  The Greater Memphis Chamber said that Nvidia (NVDA), Dell & Super Micro Computer (SMCI), the companies providing hardware for the project, would be establishing operations in the city.  Technology stalwart DELL has seen a boom in business this year thanks to demand for high-powered servers containing NVDA GPUs, the chips needed to run artificial intelligence workloads.  DELL shipped $2.9B in AI-oriented servers in the qtr that ended Nov 1.  The Memphis business organization also said that Musk's facility will contain at least 1M GPUs.  “Our job is to go win our unfair share portion of that,” Clarke said, without commenting on what share of servers or other infrastructure DELL is providing to the project.  DELL stock fell 1.03.

Dell Deploys Tens of Thousands of Chips for AI at Musk’s Memphis Supercomputer

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, pointing to steadily easing labor market conditions heading into the final stretch of 2024.  Sluggish hiring, however, means some people who lose their jobs are collecting unemployment checks for longer periods relative to early this year, potentially keeping the jobless rate above 4.0%.  Economists said this should allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this month despite stalled progress in lowering inflation to the central bank's 2% target.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9K to a seasonally adjusted 224K for the week ended Nov 30, the Labor Dept said.  The forecast called for 215K claims for the latest week.  The data included the Thanksgiving holiday, which could have injected some noise into the report.  Claims are entering a period of volatility, which could make it difficult to get a clear picture of the labor market.  Unadjusted claims dropped 35K to 210K.  There were also sizeable declines in Florida & North Carolina as the effects of Hurricanes Helene & Milton faded.  Claims remain at levels consistent with continued job growth & have signaled a sharp rebound in nonfarm payrolls in Nov after the labor market was severely distorted by Helene & Milton as well as strikes by factory workers at Boeing (BA) & another aerospace company.

US weekly jobless claims rise moderately

Gold traded lower, moving down even as the $ weakened following an unexpected jump in US initial jobless claims last week.  Gold for Feb was last seen down $28 to $2648 per ounce.  The  Dept of Labor reported 224K initial jobless claims were made last week, above the estimate & prior week level of 215K.  The results follows on a weaker than expected rise in private sector employment in Nov, with the ADP Employment Report showing a rise of 146K positions, under expectations for 163K jobs.  The Nov employment report, with a rise of 214K new jobs expected, up from just 12K a month earlier.  The $ fell following the data, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.35 points to 105.97.  Treasury yields rose, with the US 2-year note last seen paying 4.171%, up 3.3 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was up 1.1 basis points to 4.192%.

Gold Trading Lower Even as Dollar Falls Following Jump in U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Oil prices fell as investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against OPEC+ delaying its planned output increase by 3 months to Apr 2025.  Brent crude settled down 22¢ at $72.09 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 24¢ at $68.30 a barrel.  OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, had been planning to start unwinding cuts from Oct 2024, but slowing global demand & booming production outside of the group forced it to postpone the plans on several occasions.  The gradual unwinding of 2.2M barrels per day (bpd) of cuts will start from next Apr with monthly increases of 138K bpd & lasting 18 months until Sep 2026.  OPEC+ pumps around ½ the world's oil.  A cooling $ was lending some support today & expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month should further ease the $'s strength & support the oil market.  A stronger greenback makes $-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, hurting demand.

Oil falls as investors weigh ample 2025 supply outlook, delayed OPEC+ output hike

Stocks drifted lower as investors waited for the crucial jobs report tomorrow.  Investors are waiting for the monthly jobs report for a reality check on Powell's upbeat take on the strength of the US economy.  While he said that means policymakers can move cautiously, he stopped short of challenging the market's belief in a Dec rate cut.  A strong reading in Nov's nonfarm payrolls report could upend those bets for a rate cut.

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