Dow finished down 110, decliners over advancers about 5-4 & NAZ jumped 247. The MLP index dropped 4+ to the 297s & the REIT index was off 1+ to 415. Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were mixed with little change in yields. Oil slid fractionally taking it below 71 on weak Chinese retail-sales data & gold lost 6 to 2669 (more on both below).
Dow Jones Industrials
US manufacturers predict growth in 2025 after prolonged slump
US economic output hit its highest level in nearly 3 years to close out 2024, according to the latest data from S&P Global. S&P Global's flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services & manufacturing sectors, came in at 56.6 in Dec, up from 54.9 in Aug. The forecast had expected the index to tick up to 55.1. Increased activity in the services sector drove the gains, with the services PMI business activity index hitting a reading of 58.5, its highest level in 38 months. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI declined to 48.3 in Dec, down from 47.9 & marking a 3-month low for the index. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly 3 years this month, "consistent with GDP rising at an annualized rate of just over 3% in December." “Business is booming in the US services economy, where output is growing at the sharpest rate since the reopening of the economy from COVID lockdowns in 2021," Williamson added. His bullish outlook on GDP growth for the 4th qtr falls in line with other projections. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tool, which incorporates real-time data throughout the qtr to project economic growth, currently projects the US economy grew at a 3.3% annualized pace in the final qtr of 2024. Meanwhile, economists at Goldman Sachs project GDP is pacing at 2.4% for the qtr. Still, Williamson noted the growth in the US economy remains heavily skewed to activity in the services sector.
US economic output just grew at its fastest pace in nearly 3 years
As the new year approaches, more Americans have a brighter outlook for the state of their personal finances in 2025, a recent survey indicated. Bankrate said its survey found that 44% of American adults expect to see their financial situation become either "somewhat" or "significantly better" next year, a 7 percentage-point increase from the roughly same time last year. The survey, conducted on the personal finance site's behalf by YouGov, took place Nov 6, the day after the 2024 election, through Nov 8 & involved nearly 2500 American adults. Less inflation was the most common driver behind the rosy outlooks, with 36% of Americans pointing to that. The US saw inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index increase 0.3% month-over-month & 2.7% year-over-year in Nov, the gov reported. Other factors played into positive financial expectations for 2025. For instance, over one-3rd of Americans that anticipate they will see better personal finances in 2025 reported "rising income" as helping guide their positive outlook. A slightly lower share (30%) pointed to "having less debt," while "work done by elected representatives"& "better spending habits" also factored into optimism for 25%. A separate Jul survey from Discover Personal Loans had reported 80% of Americans were experiencing "some level" of anxiety stemming from finances. Meanwhile, Bankrate found that 33% of Americans foresee the state of their finances remaining as they currently are next year. Just shy of a qtr of Americans held gloomier expectations for their financial situations, reporting they anticipated things would become "somewhat" or "significantly worse." As of the 3rd qtr, American households collectively owed $17.9T worth of debt, including things like mortgages, auto loans, credit cards & student loans, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Americans had $12.6T in mortgage balances in the 3rd qtr, for instance. Student loans amounted to $1.6T, while auto loans totaled $1.64T, the New York Fed found.
More Americans have brighter outlook on state of finances for next year: survey
Spot gold prices gained, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns & a softer $, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 3rd rate cut & clues on the 2025 outlook are expected. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2654 per ounce & gold futures settled 0.2% lower at $2670. China has resumed gold buying. Gold is reacting to a multitude of these things, adding that top consumer China was likely to ramp up policy stimulus to revive its economy, which would further support gold. On the geo-political front, Israel agreed yesterday to double its population in the Golan Heights, citing Syrian threats despite the moderate tone of rebel leaders who ousted Pres Bashar al-Assad a week ago.
Gold gains as US dollar ease ahead of Fed policy meeting
Oil slipped as economic data from China reinforced concerns about weakening demand in the world's biggest crude importer. West Texas Intermediate edged 0.8% lower to trade below $71 a barrel, while Brent hovered near $74. China's crude refining dipped to the lowest in 5 months in Nov, while apparent oil demand fell 2.1% year-on-year. China's retail sales growth was well below estimates. Crude has traded in a roughly $6 range since mid-Oct, with an OPEC+ decision to extend supply curbs countering the dour outlook from China. Also today, Brazil's IBP oil industry group forecast domestic output rising to 3.6M barrels a day, keeping alive concerns that robust non-OPEC supply will help create a glut next year.
Stocks struggled, although bitcoin hit new highs & Big Tech gained ahead of the Federal Reserve's final policy decision meeting for 2024 this week. Investors now await the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year which begins tomorrow.
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