Markets rise as Trump holds off on tariffs

Dow jumped 538 (session highs), advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ was up 126.  The MLP index remained demand, up 4 to the 345s, & the REIT index jumped 6+ to 406.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were purchased, lowering yields.  Oil ended lower, down 1+ to 76, & gold went up 9 to 2757 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials

Oracle (ORCL) stock jumped after a report said the company is set to be part of a $500B investment in AI infrastructure that will be announced by Pres Trump today.  A report said Trump will announce a new private sector investment to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the US, with ORCL, ChatGPT creator OpenAI, & Japanese conglomerate SoftBank among those committing to the joint venture.  The joint venture, called Stargate, is expected to begin with a data center project in Texas & company execs are expected to commit to an initial investment of $100B at an appearance at the White House.  Other companies are expected to join the venture & bring investment in the program up to $500B in the coming years.  SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, OpenAI chief Sam Altman & ORCL CEO Larry Ellison are all expected to be in attendance at the event.  ORCL stock rose 11.56 (7%).

Oracle jumps as report says Trump to announce $500B AI investment

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee downgraded the investment bank's rating on Apple's (AAPL) stock, a Dow stock, to Underperform & decreased his price target by 13% to $200.  Loop Capital also downgraded AAPL stock from Buy to Hold, with a revised price target of $230, down from $275.  Lee said he expects AAPL to report lower-than-expected results for its Dec qtr & a miss on expectations for the 2nd qtr on weak iPhone sales & a lack of interest in AI among consumers.  According to Lee, iPhone sales in China fell 15-20% year over year.  AAPL is contending with a number of headwinds in the region, including the continued ascendance of local offerings from Huawei & Xiaomi & cautious consumer spending amidst a slower economic backdrop.  AAPL isn't just dealing with trouble in China.  Overall iPhone market share fell roughly 1% year over year in Q4 to 23%, according to estimates by Canalys & IDC, despite the fact that smartphone shipments rose 3%,  Canalys reports.  Jefferies forecasts that iPhone revenue will decline 0.4% year over year for the first qtr, while total AAPL sales will grow 2.8%, lower than the firm's prior estimate of 4.6%.  Part of its issue, Lee contends, is that the company's big push into AI isn't panning out as investors had hoped.  Apple Intelligence, AAPL's artificial intelligence platform for the iPhone, iPad, & Mac, was expected to kick off a sales supercycle.  But if IDC & Canalys estimates prove correct, it will throw cold water on the AI sales boost.  AAPL stock dropped 7,34 (3%).

Apple hit with downgrades on weak iPhone sales, AI outlook

Pres Trump plans to announce a "massive" new infrastructure initiative on his first full day in office, the White House teased.  White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt teased today.  Leavitt confirmed that the initiative does not relate to the wildfires in California, as Trump has already signed exec orders relating to that crisis.  As a candidate in 2016, Trump promised to push a $1T infrastructure bill thru Congress.  He talked about the topic as pres often during his first term, but it did not come to fruition.  Pres Biden, signed a $1T infrastructure bill into law in 2021 with Rep & Dem lawmakers to fund thousands of projects to rebuild roads & bridges & fund new climate resilience & broadband initiatives.  The 2nd Trump administration and the new Congress will have opportunities to put their stamp on the infrastructure law Biden passed.   Agency officials will be able toaward tens of Bs of $s in remaining competitive grants, Brookings Institution said in Dec.  Meanwhile, Trump has signed dozens of exec orders since he was sworn into office yesterday, advancing his administration's goals on issues from illegal immigration to withdrawing from the World Health Organization.  "Today I will sign a series of historic executive orders.  With these actions, we will begin the complete restoration of America and the revolution of commonsense," the nation's 47th pres vowed during his inauguration address yesterday at the Capitol.

White House hints at 'massive' infrastructure announcement from Trump on first full day

Gold prices were boosted by safe-haven inflows & surged above key technical resistance after Pres Trump confirmed that he intends to impose 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as early as Feb, as well as tariffs on Silver & Gold.  China is not included in the direct levies.  The possibility of Trump imposing tariffs on Silver & Gold has caused market uncertainty, pushing premiums for futures contracts higher.  Pres Trump's domestic agenda is the 2nd major driver, which could extend Gold's bullish momentum further & boost demand for haven assets.  Meanwhile, Treasury yields plunged as low as 4.527% in Asian trade today after being closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Day.

Gold Extends Gains On Trump's First Day In Office

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices ended a 3-day losing streak, holding steady near $76.20 today.  The crude oil market experienced significant volatility as traders assessed a series of exec orders issued by Pres Trump shortly after his inauguration.  1 of the major moves included a plan to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada & Mexico starting Feb 1, disappointing investors who had expected a delay in its implementation.  Crude oil prices gained momentum as the proposed tariffs on Canadian crude imports were seen as a potential driver of higher market prices.  Canada exports nearly all of its crude oil to the US, often at a discount to WTI.  Therefore, US sanctions increase the risk of higher costs for a significant portion of Canada's oil exports.  Trump refrained from announcing specific tariffs on China, the world's largest oil importer, which made the market uncertain.  Traders are keeping a close eye on developments on tariffs, as Trump previously threatened China with tariffs of up to 60% in Dec.  At the same time, concerns about a potential surge in US oil production loom large, fueled by Trump's "drill, baby, drill" agenda.  Yesterday, Trump unveiled an ambitious plan to speed up the permitting process for oil, gas & power projects, aiming to boost US energy production that is already at record levels.  1 of Trump's first day in office was to reverse actions taken by former Pres Biden to limit oil drilling. Trump reversed Biden's ban on drilling for oil in the Arctic & along vast swaths of US coastline.  Trump also rescinded a 2023 memo that banned oil drilling on 16M acres (6.5M hectares) in the Arctic, according to the White House.  The moves signal a sharp shift in policy & underscore the administration's commitment to maximizing domestic energy production.

WTI Trades Around $76.00, Sees Volatility After Trump Executive Orders |

Stocks traded in the green as investors digested Pres Trump's first policy moves, with promised tariffs on Mexico & Canada front of mind.  Traders are bracing for volatility as the new pres storms ahead with exec orders & actions, with energy & trade center stage.  On the first day of trading in Trump's 2nd term, as US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday.  Markets got a dose of relief as Trump held off from firing off the barrage of universal tariff hikes expected by many on his first day in office.  Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 4 basis points to around 4.57% today, recovering somewhat from a deeper drop in Asia trading.  The next batch of quarterly earnings will provide more food for thought for investors.