Monday, January 13, 2025

Markets waver with Dow higher & Nasdaq lower

Dow shot up 358 (near session highs), advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ dropped 73.  The MLP index remained strong, up 3+ to the 304s, & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 386s.  Junk bond fund saw more selling & Treasuries were sold, taking yields higher.  Oil held onto its advance of 2+ to nearly 79 (5 month high) & gold tumbled 37 to 2677 (more on both below).

Dow Jones Industrials


Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock,is forming a new group focused on developing AI apps & providing tools for 3rd-party customers.  The new group will be led by Jay Parikh, the former CEO of cybersecurity startup Lacework & former global head of engineering at Meta (META). The group will be called Core AI - Platform & Tools, MSFT CEO Satya Nadella said.  The mission is “to build the end-to-end Copilot & AI stack for both our first-party and third-party customers to build and run AI apps and agents.”  The announcement comes 10 months after MSFT hired DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman to lead Copilot AI initiatives.  In that role, Suleyman is an exec VP, reporting directly to Nadella.  In the post, Nadella said Parikh will work closely with Suleyman as well as Scott Guthrie, who runs cloud, technology chief Kevin Scott & other top tech leaders at the company. Parikh  joined MSFT in Oct as an exec VP, also reporting to the CEO.  Artificial intelligence has become the primary theme in tech since OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 & MSFT, as the principal investor in OpenAI, has been at the center of the boom.  MSFT counts on OpenAI's large language models for internal AI use when it comes to areas like content generation & code creation and also serves as the startup’s main cloud partner.  “Ultimately, we must remember that our internal organizational boundaries are meaningless to both our customers and to our competitors,” Nadella wrote.  The stock fell 1.76.

Microsoft CEO Nadella forms new AI group to build and run apps for customers

Shake Shack (SHAK) posted preliminary 4th qtr results that beat expectations, but investors don't seem convinced.  Shares of the fast-casual chain fell after the company reported same-store sales grew by 4.3% last qtr.  Total revenue jumped around 15% year over year to $329M.  For full fiscal year 2024, same-store sales are up 3.6%, while revenue is up 15% to $1.25B.  The company gave 2025 guidance that included 16 - 18% increase in revenue & a 3% jump in same-store sales.  SHAK made a "lot of progress" this past year "in an environment where you still have concerns around wage inflation and potentially some commodity inflation, and you've got some risks that are kind of popping up here over the last few weeks [like the bird flu]," CEO Rob Lynch said.  "We felt like it was better than what we've delivered in a long time, and better than what is the consensus forecast, but maybe not as aspirational [as] some other folks had in their mind," he added.  The company's stock has popped 85% in the past year.  For 2025, it projects to expand restaurant margins to 22% from 21.4%, the highest margin in the last 8 years.  The stock was off 6.92 (5%).

Shake Shack CEO on company growth plan, international ambitions

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a Dow stock, & Bank of America (BAC) are preparing to ease mortgage repayment conditions for customers affected by the Los Angeles wildfires, as residents grapple with one of the most destructive natural disasters in the city's history.  Chase Home Lending is providing disaster forbearance for mortgage customers affected by the wildfires, parent firm JPM said.  BAC also said its program includes the possibility of mortgage forbearance tailored to customer needs. Forbearance allows borrowers to temporarily pause repayments on their loans or pay lower amounts.  Borrowers often turn to banks for such aid to help ease the cost of rebuilding.  However, the strain on the industry's profitability from the unpaid loans can also prompt lenders to retreat from markets prone to natural catastrophes.  "The Los Angeles wildfires underscore the urgent need for financial institutions to prioritize climate risk management," said Laurent Birade, banking industry practice lead at Moody's.  "Banks with significant exposure to impacted sectors in their loan portfolios must understand, identify, measure, and manage their climate risk exposure through scenario analysis to ensure more resilient and sustainable financial operations."  JPM stock rose 4.34 & BAC stock was off 6¢.

JPMorgan providing forbearance to customers hit by LA wildfires

Gold prices dipped as the $ soared to an over 2-year high after a robust jobs report last week cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution with cutting interest rates this year.  Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2664 per ounce, after dropping as low as 1% earlier in the session.  Prices hit their highest in a month on Fri.  US gold futures were 1.1% lower at $2684.  A better-than-expected US job report strengthened the $ & the Treasury yields.  Gold's move lower is some follow-thru on the stronger than expected report.  There is also some profit-taking after gold had a great week last week, opens new tab rose to its highest since Nov 2022 after the US jobs report underscored the strength of the economy & muddied the Fed outlook.

Gold drops 1% as robust US jobs data strengthens dollar

Brent crude rose more than 2% to $81.50 a barrel, its highest in more than 4 months, as new US sanctions on Russia's energy sector raised concerns about supply disruptions.  The sanctions, the most extensive yet, target major exporters, insurers & more than 150 tankers, sending major buyers such as India & China scrambling for alternatives.  The move has caused confusion, with Chinese refiners holding emergency meetings & Indian refiners bracing for months of potential disruptions.  Early signs of disruptions include sanctioned tankers stuck off the coast of China, with analysts estimating up to 800K barrels of Russian oil a day could be affected, though the actual losses may be lower.  Adding to the rally are falling US stockpiles, colder weather & speculation that the incoming Trump administration could tighten sanctions on Iran.

Brent Crude Oil Prices Rise in 4 Months

Stocks remained mixed.  Big Tech names were sliding as the $ & bond yields climbed amid fading hopes for interest rate cuts ahead of this week's key consumer inflation report.  Stocks were navigating another volatile session after the plunge on Fri which wiped out year-to-date gains for the major gauges. The strong Dec jobs report rattled markets, spurring concern that signs of strength in the economy will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.  The 10-year Treasury yield added to recent gains to touch a 14-month high, trading near 4.8% as Treasuries were sold.

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