Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Markets climb despite tariff threats and export controls

Dow went up 119, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 210.  The MLP index inched up 1+ to the 321s & the REIT index stayed in the 419s, yesterday's close.  Junk bond funds barely budged & Treasuries were even.  Oil was flat at 69 & gold recovered 7 at 2926.

Dow Jones Industrials



A new analysis by the Bank of America Institute finds that small businesses appear to be gaining financial momentum, though policy changes related to tariffs could spur inflation & with it a new challenge to profitability.  The Bank of America Institute's report analyzed the bank's small business account data & found that in the 6-month period from Aug-Jan, deposit growth among small business clients surpassed total payments growth for the first time in 3 years.  "The positive is that revenues are rising and we're seeing that for the first time over the past three years where deposits are outpacing payments, so that's really good momentum entering 2025 and small business optimism is up," Bank of America economist Taylor Bowley said.  "But that doesn't mean that there isn't still risk for cost pressures to curb small business enthusiasm and growth going forward."  While inflation has slowed substantially since its 40-year high of 2022, it remains elevated & its impact on wages has contributed to continuing cost growth for small businesses.  "Revenues seem to be rising, which is a really good thing because small businesses historically operate on pretty small profit margins," Bowley added.  "But the one thing is that costs don't necessarily seem to be declining."  Bowley said that payroll is 1 of the largest expense categories for small businesses & that wage inflation as it relates to payroll has been a key factor in rising costs faced by those companies, though workforce expansion may also be a factor.  "Wage inflation is not the sole driver in terms of what we're seeing with payroll growth. It's an indication that small businesses are still able to keep people on the payroll, and also potentially expand their labor force," she continued.

Lowe's (LOW) topped quarterly earnings & revenue expectations & said its sales slump should end in the year ahead.  Full-year total sales are expected to $83.5-84.5B, which on the upper end would be higher than its total revenue of $83.7B for fiscal 2024.  It said it expects comparable sales to be flat to up 1% year over year & EPS to be $12.15 - $12.40.  CEO Marvin Ellison stressed that LOW still faces “a challenging home improvement market.”  High mortgage rates have created “a significant gap between today's rates for homebuyers and the lower rates many homeowners currently enjoy.”  That's led to a “lock-in effect,” which has kept consumers from buying & selling.  Even so, LOW has pressed ahead with its own strategy, so it is “well-positioned to capitalize on the home improvement recovery and take share when the market inflects.”  Shares rose after the company’s leaders said they expected sales trends to improve, but still be roughly flat from last year.  In the 3-month period that ended Jan 31, EPS was $1.99, compared with $1.77 in the year-ago period.  Revenue fell from $18.6B in the year-ago qtr.  Adjusted EPS figure excluded an $80M pretax gain associated with the 2022 sale of its Canadian retail business, which added 6¢ per share to 4th-qtr earnings.  In the fiscal 4th qtr, trends looked better.  Comparable sales rose 0.2%, boosted by online gains, high single-digit growth among home professionals & sales related to rebuilding efforts after hurricanes Milton & Helene.  That slightly positive metric ended 8 consecutive qtrs of comparable sales declines.  It also exceeded expectations for a 1.8% decline in comparable sales.  The stock jumped 9.09 (4%).

Lowe’s beats Wall Street expectations as it starts to break out of sales slum

General Motors (GM) is raising its quarterly div & initiating a new $6B share repurchase program as the company attempts to reward investors amid slowing industry sales & profits.  GM announced it is increasing its quarterly div 25% to 15¢ per share, matching that of crosstown rival Ford (F).  The higher div is expected to take effect with the company's next planned payout, scheduled to be announced in Apr.  Under the $6B repurchase plan, $2B in buybacks are expected to be completed during the  2nd qtr.  “The GM team’s execution continues to be strong across all three pillars of our capital allocation strategy, which are to reinvest in the business for profitable growth, maintain a strong investment grade balance sheet, and return capital to our shareholders,” said CEO Mary Barra.  Barra last month suggested the company would continue to return capital to shareholders this year, pending board approval.  The automaker has announced $16B in stock buyback programs since 2023 that have resulted in the retiring of more than 400K shares outstanding.  Despite such actions & reporting strong quarterly results, including regularly outperforming expectations, shares of GM are down more than 12% this year.  The stock rose 2.46.

GM raises quarterly dividend, initiates $6 billion stock buyback

Tech stocks led the US indices higher, eyeing a comeback investors for Nvidia's (NVDA) crucial earnings & assessed the prospects for Pres Trump's deep tax cuts.  Investors are looking to potentially lift stocks more broadly, given the AI bellwether's history of bullish reactions to earnings.  But its stock has lagged the stock market so far this year, & the chipmaker's prospects face headwinds from Trump's tariff threats & export controls.

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