Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Markets struggle with Fed's rate path in focus while gold soars

Dow slid 27, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ inched up 1.  The MLP index advanced 5+ to the 327s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 409s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold which raised yields (more below).  Oil rose fractionally to the mid 71s & gold jumped 42 to 2942.

Dow Jones Industrials


Amazon (AMZN) workers in North Carolina have voted against a proposal to unionize, a win for the retail giant in its fight against organized labor at its facilities.  About 4300 employees at an AMZN fulfillment center in Garner, a suburb of Raleigh, were eligible to cast ballots in last week's voting to decide whether to join a grassroots labor organization called Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity & Empowerment, the National Labor Relations Board said.  AMZN workers voted at the warehouse nearly 3-to-1 against joining former & current AMZN workers in the independent union.  The federal labor agency said 2447 workers voted against unionizing while 829 voted in favor of joining the union.  An AMZN spokeswoman said that the company already offers workers safe & inclusive workplaces and competitive pay, items in line with what most unions request.  "We’re glad that our team in Garner was able to have their voices heard, and that they chose to keep a direct relationship with Amazon," AMZN spokesperson Eileen Hards said.  The stock fell 3.75.

Amazon workers in North Carolina vote against unionizing

Treasury yields were higher after a day's holiday, as investors looked toward the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes later this week & digested a bond sell-off in Europe.  The 10-year Treasury yield was up 3.7 basis points at 4.515%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was up more than 2 basis points at 4.282%.  1 basis point is equivalent to 0.01% & yields share an inverse relationship with prices.  The move higher comes after European bond yields increased significantly yesterday on expectations that countries across the region will hike their defense spending.  Investors will also be watching the Fed meeting minutes, slated for release Wed, for clues as to how long the central bank plans to keep rates unchanged.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized that the central bank isn't rushing to lower interest rates, but any insight into the future direction of monetary policy will be appreciated by investors.  According to CME Group data, markets are anticipating only one or 2 qtr-point rate cuts by the end of 2025.  Markets are pricing in a near 98% chance of no rate cuts at the Fed's next meeting in Mar.

Treasury yields tick higher as investors await more clues on U.S. economy

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Pres Mary Daly today said that while there's no reason to be discouraged about the bumpy & sometimes imperceptible progress toward 2% inflation, the central bank should keep short-term borrowing costs where they are until the progress is more visible.  "Policy needs to remain restrictive until ... I see that we are really continuing to make progress on inflation," she told a community banking conference hosted by the American Bankers Association in Phoenix, Arizona.  "We want to be, in my judgment, careful ... before we make the next adjustment" to ensure there is enough downward pressure on inflation without short-changing the labor market.

Fed's Daly: policy must stay restrictive until there is more inflation progress

Stocks were largely muted to begin a holiday-shortened week of trading, with potential policy moves by the Federal Reserve & Pres Trump in focus.  Investors are cautiously upbeat after yesterday's closure for the Pres Day as they debate the future path of interest rates.  Fed officials over the long weekend signaled a firm belief that rates should stay at current levels to combat rising inflation.  Investors are looking for clues to the chances of rate cuts this year, given recent data failed to give a clear steer.  The benchmark 10-year yield rose to trade near 4.51% to shed its lowest closing level in a week while gold is in record territory.

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