Showing posts with label China trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China trade. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Markets drift lower on mixed news

After starting higher Dow pulled back to down 22, advancers just ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 8.  The Financial Index was flattish in the 194s & pretty much where it has been for the last 3 weeks.  The MLP index was flat in the 385s & the REIT index dropped 1+ to 264s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries were also little changed.  Oil fell after Norway ended a strike that threatened to halt output by western Europe’s largest crude exporter & as China reduced purchases of the raw material.  Gold is working its way higher, trying to get back over $1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.518%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...85.67 ...Down 0.32  (0.4%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,595.60 ...Up 7.00  (0.4%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



EU to Speed Spanish Bank Aid, Aims for Direct Recapitalization

Photo:  Bloomberg

The EU worked towards stabilizing Spain's finances as it backed up the blueprint for the country's €100B bank bailout plan with plans to grant the country an extra year to cut its budget deficit.  Finance ministers meeting in Brussels approved a one-year extension, until 2014, of Spain's deadline for achieving a budget deficit of 3%.  The move comes on the heels of an overnight meeting at which the finance ministers agreed on the terms of a bailout for Spain's troubled banks, saying that the first €30B ($36.9B) in aid can be ready by the end of this month.  The finance ministers for the 17 countries that use the € will return nest week to finalize the agreement, having first obtained the approval of their govs or parliaments.  Meanwhile, Greece's new finance minister, Ioannis Stournaras, said his country will work to get its budget-balancing program back on track, but Greece too will need extra time to meet its targets.  Call this a small amount of good news in an unstable situation.

EU to Speed $123 Billion Aid for Spanish Banks


China's imports rose less than anticipated in Jun while export growth slowed, adding pressure on the gov to support expansion after inflation data showed demand softening.  Inbound shipments increased 6.3% from a year earlier, far below the 11% estimate.  Overseas sales gained 11.3% & the trade surplus rose to a 3-year high of $31.7B.  Growth probably decelerated in Q2 to the least in 3 years, with the IMF saying China's slowdown is among reasons the organization will reduce its estimate for global expansion.  A gauge of export orders in China's official purchasing managers' index for Jun showed a contraction for the first time since Jan, suggesting that overseas shipments may slow in coming months.  The nation cut its benchmark interest rates last week for the 2nd time in a month, adding to the first reduction since 2008 & 3 cuts in banks' reserve requirements since Nov.  Economic growth may have slowed to 7.7% in Q2 from a year earlier after expanding 8.1% in Q1 (the 5th quarterly deceleration).  Premier Wen Jiabao said authorities will intensify fine- tuning of policies as downward pressure on the economy remains "relatively large."  The gov will promote steady growth in overseas sales, Wen said & he also urged Chinese exporters to explore markets throughout Asia & diversify trading partners in the face of rising protectionism.

China’s Import Growth Misses Estimates for June


Applied Materials Cuts Yr Sales

Photo:   Bloomberg

Applied Materiel cut its full-year fiscal 2012 forecast because of weaker than expected demand for its semiconductor equipment business, primarily among foundry customers.  For the fiscal year ending Oct 28, the company expects sales to be below the previous outlook of $9.1-$9.5B & EPS excluding some items will be less than its previous projection of 85-95¢.  It is seeing weaker demand from its foundry customers, manufacturers that build chips for other companies which can be a harbinger of lower demand for the broader electronics industry.  This part of a global slowdown for companies in the PC chain. The stock was off 22¢.

Applied Materials Cuts Year Full-Year Fiscal 2012 Forecast

Applied Materials (AMAT)


stock chart


The Aloca (AA) earnings report was mildly disappointing last night but markets were little affected.  JPMorgan (JPM), a Dow stock, reports on Fri which will get a lot of attention with its explanation about the loss on its European debt mess.  Europe continues to muddle by, but China is getting more attention with more signs of slowing growth.  While Dow has had a nice recovery in the last month, I think it's still playing defense because it's nervous about earnings season.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart





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Monday, June 21, 2010

Markets fell after rethinking Chinese currency announcement

Markets gave up early gains after realizing the flexibility in exchange rates announced by China were not going to make a significant difference in trading habits. Dow fell 8, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ declined a bigger 20. Lower bank stocks gave the Financial Index a modest decline.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value199.30One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change-0.54 (-0.3%)



Gains for high yielders were trimmed in late day trading. The Alerian MLP Index was up a fraction in the 304s while the REIT index slumped 1½ to the 204s. Junk bond funds were flat to lower. The VIX rose 1+ to the 25s, little changed from where it was for much of last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond gained only 2 basis points to 3.24%.

Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index --- YTD





Like the stock market oil lost early AM momentum, but remained higher in its pursuit of 80. Gold prices advanced for a month & could remain in record territory on continued momentum. But gold's safe-haven appeal diminished when China announced that it will take steps to end the yuan's 2-year peg to the dollar & allow the Chinese currency to trade more freely. China will increase its exchange rate's "flexibility." That optimistic sentiment gave a boost to investor confidence & reduced some demand for the safety of gold.

CLN10.NYM..Crude Oil Jul 10..77.63 ..Up 0.45
......(0.6%)

GCM10.CMX..Gold Jun 10..1,236.70 ..Down 20.50
......(1.6%)


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BP (BP) diverted 23K barrels of oil from its well to ships on the surface yesterday, an 11% increase from June 19, when part of the operation was shut down. But oil is still flowing from the well at a rate of 35-60K barrels a day, according to an estimate by a gov scientific team. Total costs of the spill response, including collection, cleanup & relief wells to permanently plug the leak have risen to $2B. BP fell 1½, hanging in just above 30.

BP's Oil Recovery Rate in Gulf Increased 11 Percent


BP --- YTD





Upon reflection, traders realized that changes announced by China were not that meaningful. Quibbling about the yuan's exchange rate at 6.8 or 6.9 to the dollar & tiny refinements to those numbers is not going to make a big difference in trading patterns with China. Big picture, it remains the elephant in the room. Its large holdings of US Treasuries make reevaluation of the currency more difficult. Strengthening the currency reduces the values of its holdings, something the US doesn't care about but they do. The month & qtr are closing, which will influence trading into next week.


Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD








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Monday, September 14, 2009

Stocks waffle on trade worries

Markets around the world sold off on concerns about international trade problems (i.e. US-China which are the first & 3rd largest economies in the world). Dow & NAZ were near break even while advancers were barely ahead of decliners. Bank stocks hardly moved. The Financial Index has been trading sideways around 190 in Aug & Sep after more than doubling from its lows in Mar.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
194.91
Change
-0.18
% Change
-0.1%


The high yield sector didn't move much. The MLP Index & REIT Index were each flattish. Junk bond funds were quiet at their yearly highs. But the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond kicked up 4 basis points to 3.38% (near the low end of its recent range at 3.3%).

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 months




Commodities were little changed. Oil was down pennies near 69 while gold slipped 3 to 1002. The bullish trajectory for gold remains in place.


China filed a World Trade Organization (WTO) complaint over new U.S. tariffs on Chinese tires. The conflict is a potential irritant as US-China prepare for a summit next week to discuss efforts to end the worst global downturn since the 1930s. China's unusually prompt response to the tariff decision shows the urgency China attaches to maintaining exports amid slumping global demand. Pres Obama approved the higher duties to slow the rapid growth of U.S. imports of Chinese-made tires blamed for the loss of thousands of American jobs.

Obama’s China Tariffs May Be Prelude to Opening Trade


Eli Lilly (LLY), a Dividend Aritsocrat, will reduce its work force to 35K (from 40½K) by the end of 2011 However, the new total excludes hirings in high-growth emerging markets & Japan. This measure is to cut costs by $1B annually. LLY will organize itself into 5 units: cancer, diabetes, established markets, emerging markets & Elanco (its animal health business). LLY also backed its annual guidance for profits of $4.14-4.24 per share ($4.20-4.30 per share excluding one-time costs) in 2009. Analysts expect $4.28 per share. The stock was up 24¢ & yields 6%.

Lilly to Eliminate 5,500 Jobs by 2011 as Drugmaker Aims to Save $1 Billion


Lilly --- 1 year



This is turning out to be a quiet kind of day, giving time to reflect on the 1 year anniversary of the Lehman collapse. Following one of the worst sell-offs in market history, stocks have had a very impressive rally in 2009 (although it has not been shared by all securities as shown in the LLY chart). The greatest rewards have gone to stocks with the highest risks, Citigroup (C) which sank to $1 is one of the many examples. High yield securities have shot up which reduced their yields & narrowed the premium over yields on Treasury bonds. Even half way thru terrible Sep, optimism remains at high levels as the volatility index is in the 24s, its lowest levels in over a year. Bulls remain in charge!

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months