Markets follow Asian markets lower

After the decline in Asian markets, US stocks sold off. Dow dropped 83, decliners over advancers almost 4-1 & NAZ fell 24. Banks were down, but not too badly. Flyers AIG (AIG) & Citigroup (C) were hit with selling, down 4.36 & 18¢ respectively.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 196.83

Change -1.30

% Change -0.7%

Joining in the the sell-off, the Alerian MLP Index fell 2+ taking it below 237 & the REIT Index dropped 3. Junk bond funds were also weak. Risk averse may be returning with Treasuries back in demand. But the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell only 2 basis points to 3.43%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 1 month




Nervous global stock markets dragged down oil, taking it below 70.

CLV09.NYM

...Crude Oil Oct 09

...69.90

... 2.84 .......(3.90%)

Asian markets are at center stage today after Japan voted in a new gov ending the ruling party's grip which lasted 5 decades. Nikkei, the Tokyo stock market, after rising 200 (2%) ended down 0.4%. Shanghai dropped 7% following a significant sell-off in the last month. Of course, this is a market that has doubled & then dropped 50+% in the last 2 years, but this decline may be a signal that their massive recovery package has its limitations.

Shanghai Composite --- 3 months




With many traders away & no major news events expected, this week should be quiet. Markets are having one of their best years in history, so they are entitled to take a breather which may be the theme for this week.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month

Markets heading for 8th straight down day

Markets keep spinning out of control as stocks are get hammered worldwide.

Dow is down 20% in Oct, not this year, just a few days in Oct!! Markets all over the world are getting mauled with unrelenting selling. Last night Dow futures were down 260 to about 8.3K following the massive sell-off late in the day here. Tokyo opened down 900. Big company names including: Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, Honda, etc. were hammered. An insurance company failed (following other insurance failures) & the REIT index had it's worst day in history after an REIT failure. The Hong Kong market was down over 1K. Just a few weeks ago the index went below 21K, today it's in the 14Ks. Shanghai peaked a year ago at 6K+ (OK, it was overbought). Today it's under 2K. The Australia index fell a little below 5K a few weeks ago. Now it's 4K, the last week was the worst in 20 years. By the way, Australia is not as badly affected by worldwide trade. Speakings of declines, yesterday was the one year anniversary of Dow reaching a peak at 14.1K. After 365 days, it's fallen almost 6K. Even with the ugly reputation Oct has, this already must be the worst month in history. The S&P 500 is expected to have it's worst week since 1933 (shown below):


S&P 500 - last 5 days




I like MLPs & had buy points last week on targeted companies. Fortunately I never bought because they're about 10-15 points lower IN JUST ONE WEEK!

Following up on sinking Asian markets, Singapore & New Zealand officially recognized recessions in their economies. Be prepared for more announcements

Today Dow is down 300+, etc., etc., etc.

Central banks are injecting massive amounts of liquidity. Instead of helping, that's seen as bankers not knowing what they are doing. Hedge funds are selling a lot of stocks when investors redeem so they can buy buy gold & T-bills. This is really getting ugly.

Oil is down to 81, sounds good but selling signals expectations of much lower demand around the world . Gold is having a good day as many investors seek the flight to quality. Below is chart of 2 years for Oil showing how far it's come & gone:

CLX08.NYM

....Crude Oil Nov 08

....80.90

... 5.69 (6.6%)

Oil - 2 years




I wanted to get this out quickly, I'll return shortly with more thoughts. Try to think long term thoughts. I know it's hard, but keep trying!

Asia & Australian markets a little lower

Markets are pulling back in Asia/Australia, maybe that's better than lower prices in the US. Australian stocks are down over 2% led by lower resource shares, hurt by lower oil & commodity prices. Resources commodities are down typically 5+%. Hong Kong stocks are down 1.7%. HSBC after large loan write-offs causing profits to decline 29% is leading stocks lower. Taiwan stocks are also down 1%. However, Tokyo stocks, at lunch break, are up ¼% & Shanghai stocks are up slightly. Oil is down 1 to 120.

Following up on my Exxon comments, below are earnings estimates (courtesy of Yahoo) for a 76.60 stock:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

..............................2008........,,...2009
Avg. Estimate__________9.76________10.37
No. of Analysts__________17___________17
Low Estimate__________8.60_________8.25
High Estimate_________11.21________15.64
Year Ago EPS__________7.28__________9.76

The stock doubled in the last 5 years, a nice story followed by the sell-off in the last 3 months:

Credit Crunch Continues

Another Australian major bank, ANZ, is taking a $1.2B (Australian) write-off on global loans, primarily in the US. The Australian market is down 0.6% led by lower banking shares, ANZ slumped 11%. On Fri, Australian banks sold off after NAB reported a similar $1B write-off. Tokyo & Korean markets are trading higher.

Two banks in the west failed on Fri, but there were no runs on them. FDIC is getting practice handling failed banks. These bring the total to 7 failures, starting with IndyMac 10 days ago. Also, this week preliminary GDP figures for Q2 will be reported, 2% is the expected annual rate. Since that is up, it will not signal a recession. Try telling that to housing & auto companies.

Asian markets follow through with gains

Asian markets are following through with gains of 2+%. The laggards are Australia, up over 1%, & Tokyo, up 1%. Shanghai just opened with strong gains following Korea, Taiwan, etc. Oil is up pennies, just above the NY close. Courtesy of CNBC Asia, analysts are already discussing whether the big gains from Wed will hold. We'll see tomorrow.

Asian markets advance

Asian markets rebounded nicely following gains in the US & also helped by lower oil prices. All markets are up 1-3+% in their morning sessions. Shanghai is up about 10% from its recent lows a couple of days ago, Hong Kong has rebounded after a 15 week decline & Tokyo reversed its 3 week decline mirroring declines in the US:





Banks are up nicely (typically 3-4%) after selling off recently. The airlines also have strong gains of 4-5% after heavy selling caused by high priced oil. Oil is little changed, above 136.

Asian stocks mixed on July 4

Asian stocks are patchy or mixed on July 4. Tokyo exchange is hoping for an up day to reverse its longest losing streak in 50 years. However, Tokyo & Korea are the 2 major exchanges in the red. Hong Kong is up 1%, but off a 15 week low. Oil continues to trade in the 145s.