Friday, November 30, 2007

End of a rough month

As predicted, after being up 150 the Dow gave back some of that gain. It was up 60, but not a bad 4 days. It recovered almost half the decline from it's October record. This has been a rough month after it started near it's highs. The recent rally is betting the FED will cut interest rates in a couple of weeks and continue rate cuts hoping that will solve all problems. Maybe, maybe not. Housing continues very weak. Housing oversupply won't correct quickly.

As badly as banks performed, technology did a little worse in November. Tech is still playing defense, investors are losing interest after it's rapid runup. The best performing group was non discretionary (i.e. P&G (PG) and Altria (MO) which makes Philip Morris). Away from sexy techs into boring necessities which should weather a slowdown better. The VIX is around 23, down a bit. Over 20 suggests high volatility. Be ready for more bumps in the road.

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