Friday, November 30, 2007

Up, Up & Away

Looks like it's up, up & away for the markets. Dow is up 600 since the low a couple of days ago. Today it's up "only" 55, pulling back from a plus 100 gain. They're betting on another interest rate cut in Dec. Advance/decline ratio is 3-1, not bad. In the PM, traders may sell to lock in gains before the weekend making for a very good week. I think the next move should be down, but it looks like it wants to test 14K.

Some groups have not participated, selling near recent lows. MLPs (master limited partnerships) have been in a 290-310 range for a few months. Today they're up 2 to 297. REITs (real estate) have been hit hard, many offering high yields of 6-10% or more. Junk bond funds investing in speculative quality bonds have been hit hard in the current credit situation. Traditionally their yields are 4 points (400 basis points) above the treasury rate. Now it's easy to find 11% yields, a good 7 points above the 1o year Treasury rate. The last 2 groups especially will be under tax loss selling pressure in the coming weeks. But those yields are getting very nice for those willing to accept the extra risk.

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