Sunday, July 13, 2008

Troubled Times

These are very troubled times. For those who had doubts, Fri was a very grim reminder. That message was spelled out clearly by the long list of new 52 week lows on NYSE. Below is a listing of JUST the first 20 stocks as determined by volume:

Record Price Low : NYSE (1-20 of 554) sorted by Volume in descending order

Symbol

Last

Change

%Change

High

Low

Volume

Vol %Change

Year Low

Year High

%Off High


FNM

10.25

-2.95

-22.35%

11.89

6.68

409,334,831

8,591.79%

6.68

70.57

85.48

Trade

FRE

7.75

-0.25

-3.12%

8.63

3.89

397,295,436

11,534.04%

3.89

67.20

88.47

Trade

LEH

14.43

-2.87

-16.59%

16.06

13.29

174,338,284

2,454.28%

13.29

74.09

80.52

Trade

C

16.19

-0.09

-0.55%

16.89

15.75

136,243,781

419.59%

15.75

52.97

69.44

Trade

BAC

21.67

-0.69

-3.09%

22.47

20.84

133,737,424

702.50%

20.84

52.96

59.08

Trade

WB

11.54

-1.59

-12.11%

12.80

11.15

112,041,246

1,434.26%

11.15

53.10

78.27

Trade

WFC

23.00

-0.61

-2.58%

23.78

22.11

82,338,754

815.13%

22.11

37.99

39.46

Trade

JPM

33.16

-1.35

-3.91%

34.45

32.09

71,316,650

409.97%

32.09

50.48

34.31

Trade

AIG

23.08

-0.91

-3.79%

23.90

21.75

60,884,161

584.25%

21.75

70.13

67.09

Trade

MER

27.61

-1.10

-3.83%

28.69

26.50

52,351,277

822.44%

26.50

89.23

69.06

Trade

MOT

6.99

0.04

0.58%

7.14

6.77

32,972,638

79.97%

6.77

19.68

64.48

Trade

USB

25.74

-0.48

-1.83%

27.19

25.00

32,564,063

432.92%

25.00

35.25

26.98

Trade

MS

33.44

-0.07

-0.21%

34.40

32.38

31,936,396

368.19%

32.38

73.64

54.59

Trade

AMD

4.84

-0.12

-2.42%

4.93

4.60

29,953,570

143.46%

4.60

16.19

70.11

Trade

SOV

7.14

-0.08

-1.11%

7.29

5.64

29,644,704

1,354.36%

5.64

22.35

68.05

Trade

RAD

1.03

-0.17

-14.17%

1.23

0.980

29,264,660

461.80%

0.980

6.25

83.52

Trade

NCC

4.42

-0.13

-2.86%

4.45

4.24

28,513,360

581.26%

4.24

33.54

86.82

Trade

HD

21.58

-0.29

-1.33%

22.13

21.00

27,126,682

133.59%

21.00

41.01

47.38

Trade

GM

9.92

0.23

2.37%

10.44

9.14

26,264,692

155.53%

9.14

43.20

77.04

Trade

RF

8.54

-0.94

-9.92%

9.07

8.39

24,725,007

1,131.94%

8.39

34.44

75.20

Trade

Source: www.allstocks.com/nyselows52.html


This is basically a list of the largest investment firms in the world, no wimps here! For many it's not just a 52 week low, but may represent the lowest levels in 5, 10, or even more years. Leading this group are Fannie Mae (FNM) & Freddie Mac (FRE) which have not seen these stock prices for 17 years.


FNM & FRE as GSEs have been considered elite investments because of implied gov backing. The track record for their stocks since early 1970s has been superb. In this decade their stocks prices flattened out with a bumpy ride followed by an enormous sell-off in the last year as their businesses have been caught up in the mortgage mess. Panic took over on Fri, the stocks made an attempt to fall to zero.


Their business continues. They own a few trillion (that's T as in trillions) in mortgages financed by their own debt. Underneath their debt (or bonds) is a very small amount of equity capital. There were worries that if their assets were written down to market value (from face value), that could easily wipe out all equity on the balance sheet & probably more. Being a gov related business, there was realization that big daddy gov has to keep their mortgage businesses going no matter what. But there was also a realization that any help would not be for stockholders (can you spell “Bear Stearns?”). Other major financials may need gov/FED help to keep going in these troubled times. All financial houses on the above list are in various degrees of shakiness & that ain't good!



Fraidy cat!!






This is a picture of the fraidy, cat resting comfortably, taken last night. Her son, even more of a fraidy cat, was not available for a picture, just poked his head out once from behind the futon. It may seem difficult, during these times it is best to be like mother cat - remain resting & at ease.


High yields will help investors weather this financial storm of difficult times. Junk bond funds sold off along with financial stocks, but aren't badly affected by the mortgage mess. They've generally stayed away from mortgages, a business they don't understand. For the brave, their yields around 11% are tempting. REITs have been selling off along with financials, but many should weather this storm in good shape. At the start of this decade, 10-12% yields were common for REITs & most of those investments worked out well. Currently, yields of 7%+ are available in REITs. MLPs are businesses owning pipelines that move oil & gas around the country, a national priority. Their Alerian MLP index last week bounced up 10 off the 262 low (also reached in Mar). It's been in a sideways trading range, this year mostly in the 280s - 290s. Some have sold off more than others, but again yields of 7%+ are common (a few even in double digits). These will do well because pipeline expansion is needed. The S&P Dividend Aristocrat list is taking lumps. The group of premier companies in the S&P 500 has diminished recently. Of the 7 banks included a few years ago, 2 are off, 2 are about to go & Bank of America (BAC) may not remain with a yield of 12%. Masco (MAS) should be having the 50th consecutive year of higher divs but may not remain as forecasted earnings are not expected to cover the div. But other members should keep their track records going forward such as: MMM, KO, JNJ, KMB, PG & WMT.


I have a feeling that the FED is meeting this PM (like they did in the Bear Stearns mess) trying to figure out how to help troubled financial markets, i.e. FNM & FRE. They can come up with measures to help fix companies in the mortgage mess & anything done will give confidence to markets, bringing out buyers. With markets so oversold, the rebound bounce could be very big (several hundred Dow points). But fundamental problems will remain (as with the failure of IndyMac on Fri) with bad mortgages not to mention regular bad loans out there. If nothing is announced, markets will continue to bleed with interruptions of buying based on temporary optimism.


Asian & Australian markets open in a few hours will give a first glimpse of trading for next week. Special announcements from the FED/gov aside, news this week will be highlighted by early Q2 earnings reports. They can be expected to repeat prior themes: declines in EPS but beating LOWERED estimates, domestic business off while foreign business is strong & cautious guidance for the balance of the year. Meanwhile the fraidy cat is still resting comfortably. We have to keep calm to tough out these times & do well when markets recover.

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